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| EU referendum: Grassroots Out brings 'a hint of the Trump' to middle England | EU referendum: Grassroots Out brings 'a hint of the Trump' to middle England |
| (7 months later) | |
| “This is middle England,” said Philip Hollobone MP as he marched his anti-European Union canvassers through historic Rothwell in Northamptonshire on Saturday morning. “This referendum is going to be decided in market towns like this.” | “This is middle England,” said Philip Hollobone MP as he marched his anti-European Union canvassers through historic Rothwell in Northamptonshire on Saturday morning. “This referendum is going to be decided in market towns like this.” |
| The previous night in Germany, the prime minister had spoken about the threat of Britain leaving the EU at a black-tie dinner arranged by Angela Merkel. Kettering’s Conservative MP, wearing a union flag anorak, fraying at the seams from heavy campaign use, was not impressed. | The previous night in Germany, the prime minister had spoken about the threat of Britain leaving the EU at a black-tie dinner arranged by Angela Merkel. Kettering’s Conservative MP, wearing a union flag anorak, fraying at the seams from heavy campaign use, was not impressed. |
| “David Cameron enjoys being feted by the elite at banquets in Hamburg, but this referendum isn’t going to be decided there.” | “David Cameron enjoys being feted by the elite at banquets in Hamburg, but this referendum isn’t going to be decided there.” |
| Hollobone is among Conservative, Ukip and Labour Euroscpetics now pinning their hopes on the Grassroots Out campaign (GO!), which is trying to tap into the disgruntled defiance towards Brussels bubbling under along Britain’s quieter high streets, in the church closes and suburban estates of market towns and outer suburbs. | Hollobone is among Conservative, Ukip and Labour Euroscpetics now pinning their hopes on the Grassroots Out campaign (GO!), which is trying to tap into the disgruntled defiance towards Brussels bubbling under along Britain’s quieter high streets, in the church closes and suburban estates of market towns and outer suburbs. |
| GO!’s leaders believe that if harnessed, this spirit could deliver a stunning victory in the poll, expected on 23 June. | GO!’s leaders believe that if harnessed, this spirit could deliver a stunning victory in the poll, expected on 23 June. |
| Rothwell residents Alan and Darren are the kind of voters they want to steer towards the ballot box. | Rothwell residents Alan and Darren are the kind of voters they want to steer towards the ballot box. |
| Alan, a Labour-turned-Ukip supporting roofer who answered the door to Hollobone’s canvassers in a pair of cartoon pyjamas, said: “We should get out as quick as we can.” Why? “I’m sick to death of being told what we can and can’t do.” | Alan, a Labour-turned-Ukip supporting roofer who answered the door to Hollobone’s canvassers in a pair of cartoon pyjamas, said: “We should get out as quick as we can.” Why? “I’m sick to death of being told what we can and can’t do.” |
| Darren, a couple of doors down, wasn’t sure at first why he wanted out but settled on: “We pay an awful lot in and we don’t get a lot out,” in reference to the UK’s £9bn annual contribution to the EU budget. | Darren, a couple of doors down, wasn’t sure at first why he wanted out but settled on: “We pay an awful lot in and we don’t get a lot out,” in reference to the UK’s £9bn annual contribution to the EU budget. |
| “I’m not the best informed,” he admitted. “It’s just what I feel.” | “I’m not the best informed,” he admitted. “It’s just what I feel.” |
| After canvassing 286 households on Saturday, the 30 GO! activists in Rothwell found 29% want to leave the EU, 22% want to stay and almost half are undecided. | After canvassing 286 households on Saturday, the 30 GO! activists in Rothwell found 29% want to leave the EU, 22% want to stay and almost half are undecided. |
| It chimes with a sample taken last month by Survation of more than 2,000 Kettering voters, which found 29% want to leave and 25% want to stay. The national polls also suggest “Brexit” is a real possibility. The last YouGov poll on 4 February put the balance at 45% to leave and 36% remain. | It chimes with a sample taken last month by Survation of more than 2,000 Kettering voters, which found 29% want to leave and 25% want to stay. The national polls also suggest “Brexit” is a real possibility. The last YouGov poll on 4 February put the balance at 45% to leave and 36% remain. |
| GO! is currently backed by Ukip and Tory donors and is led by two Tory MPs, Peter Bone and Thomas Pursglove and one Labour MP, Kate Hoey, whose involvement helps its claim to be cross-party. It is focused on establishing dozens of local activist groups to canvass supporters. Debate about the issues is less important. What matters is finding where the leave voters live and getting them out on polling day. Do that well and GO! reckons it could increase its share by five percentage points. | GO! is currently backed by Ukip and Tory donors and is led by two Tory MPs, Peter Bone and Thomas Pursglove and one Labour MP, Kate Hoey, whose involvement helps its claim to be cross-party. It is focused on establishing dozens of local activist groups to canvass supporters. Debate about the issues is less important. What matters is finding where the leave voters live and getting them out on polling day. Do that well and GO! reckons it could increase its share by five percentage points. |
| Bone pitches GO! as “the people versus the establishment” and reckons the grandees of the stay campaign such as former trade secretary Lord Mandelson former chief executive of Marks & Spencer chief executive Lord Rose have scant appetite for canvassing “on a wet Saturday morning”. | Bone pitches GO! as “the people versus the establishment” and reckons the grandees of the stay campaign such as former trade secretary Lord Mandelson former chief executive of Marks & Spencer chief executive Lord Rose have scant appetite for canvassing “on a wet Saturday morning”. |
| But it is not as grassroots or cross-party as it would perhaps like to seem. GO! is now funded by the insurance millionaire and major Ukip supporter Arron Banks, who has been backing the Leave.EU campaign and is now among several private donors who are said to have pledged £1m to fund GO! over the next six weeks. | But it is not as grassroots or cross-party as it would perhaps like to seem. GO! is now funded by the insurance millionaire and major Ukip supporter Arron Banks, who has been backing the Leave.EU campaign and is now among several private donors who are said to have pledged £1m to fund GO! over the next six weeks. |
| Of the activists turning out in Rothwell at the weekend, half voted Ukip at the last election and half Conservative. Labour was nowhere to be seen. The biggest cheer at GO’s Kettering launch rally, which attracted 2,500 people, went to Nigel Farage. | Of the activists turning out in Rothwell at the weekend, half voted Ukip at the last election and half Conservative. Labour was nowhere to be seen. The biggest cheer at GO’s Kettering launch rally, which attracted 2,500 people, went to Nigel Farage. |
| GO! is bidding to be designated by the Electoral Commission as the official leave campaign, which would allow it to raise up to £7m in total. US political consultants, originally hired by Leave.EU, have been placed at GO!’s disposal, including some from Cambridge Analytica, who work for Ted Cruz, the Republican presidential candidate and Goddard Gunster, Washington-based referenda experts. Richard Murphy, a former director of field operations for the Tories, has been seconded, and is hiring a dozen regional directors to marshall grassroots support. | GO! is bidding to be designated by the Electoral Commission as the official leave campaign, which would allow it to raise up to £7m in total. US political consultants, originally hired by Leave.EU, have been placed at GO!’s disposal, including some from Cambridge Analytica, who work for Ted Cruz, the Republican presidential candidate and Goddard Gunster, Washington-based referenda experts. Richard Murphy, a former director of field operations for the Tories, has been seconded, and is hiring a dozen regional directors to marshall grassroots support. |
| All this follows a public spat between Leave.EU and the rival Vote Leave campaign and which culminated in Banks attacking the leaders of the latter campaign, saying: “I wouldn’t put them in charge of the local sweet shop.” | All this follows a public spat between Leave.EU and the rival Vote Leave campaign and which culminated in Banks attacking the leaders of the latter campaign, saying: “I wouldn’t put them in charge of the local sweet shop.” |
| Stronger In, one of the main stay campaigns, is dismissive of the new organisation. | Stronger In, one of the main stay campaigns, is dismissive of the new organisation. |
| “The leave campaigns have been forced to set up yet another new splinter group under the shallow guise of a grassroots movement because they know their existing campaigns are falling apart,” said spokesman James McGrory. “Grassroots Out is nothing more than a sticking plaster for the personality clashes and inability to say what ‘out’ looks like.” | “The leave campaigns have been forced to set up yet another new splinter group under the shallow guise of a grassroots movement because they know their existing campaigns are falling apart,” said spokesman James McGrory. “Grassroots Out is nothing more than a sticking plaster for the personality clashes and inability to say what ‘out’ looks like.” |
| But GO! is attracting some grassroot support. Door-to-door canvassing “taskforces” of local activists have been mustered in St Albans, Durham, Shipley and Luton. The goal is to distribute 10m leaflets. On Saturday, activists travelled to Rothwell to canvass from as far away as Derbyshire. In anticipation of growing interest, 10 venues have already been booked from Gibraltar to Glasgow and Swansea to Sunderland. | But GO! is attracting some grassroot support. Door-to-door canvassing “taskforces” of local activists have been mustered in St Albans, Durham, Shipley and Luton. The goal is to distribute 10m leaflets. On Saturday, activists travelled to Rothwell to canvass from as far away as Derbyshire. In anticipation of growing interest, 10 venues have already been booked from Gibraltar to Glasgow and Swansea to Sunderland. |
| The idea, it seems, is to replicate with GO!’s party-neutral green T-shirts and balloons the effect of the yellow-shirted SNP supporters who thronged town centres during the 2014 Scottish referendum. | The idea, it seems, is to replicate with GO!’s party-neutral green T-shirts and balloons the effect of the yellow-shirted SNP supporters who thronged town centres during the 2014 Scottish referendum. |
| “There is a latent hostility to the EU,” said Hoey. “Key activists have already been switched on by Ukip, but there are lots of people who feel strongly about the EU who are not attached. We want to build on those people who do feel angry and have not had a voice for years.” | “There is a latent hostility to the EU,” said Hoey. “Key activists have already been switched on by Ukip, but there are lots of people who feel strongly about the EU who are not attached. We want to build on those people who do feel angry and have not had a voice for years.” |
| Bone and Pursglove sell GO! as resolutely “anti-Westminster bubble”. They cite Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership campaign and Cruz’s surprise victory over Trump at the Iowa caucuses as models of how building grassroots movements can flip polls on their head. | Bone and Pursglove sell GO! as resolutely “anti-Westminster bubble”. They cite Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership campaign and Cruz’s surprise victory over Trump at the Iowa caucuses as models of how building grassroots movements can flip polls on their head. |
| The activists in Rothwell are certainly committed. Tilly Ward, 35, a Ukip supporter and married mother of two from Matlock, Derbyshire, drove a 160-mile round trip to canvass. She senses people might start “coming out” about their views on immigration. | The activists in Rothwell are certainly committed. Tilly Ward, 35, a Ukip supporter and married mother of two from Matlock, Derbyshire, drove a 160-mile round trip to canvass. She senses people might start “coming out” about their views on immigration. |
| “Some people can be quite embarrassed about talking about it,” she said. “It is almost hush hush. There are more people who feel this than actually say it.” | “Some people can be quite embarrassed about talking about it,” she said. “It is almost hush hush. There are more people who feel this than actually say it.” |
| Before they fan out from the market square to canvass, Bone offered the activists a trick to work out which way waverers might vote. “If they are undecided, as you are going down the drive, ask them about immigration,” the MP said. “Their answer will indicate which way they are likely to vote.” | Before they fan out from the market square to canvass, Bone offered the activists a trick to work out which way waverers might vote. “If they are undecided, as you are going down the drive, ask them about immigration,” the MP said. “Their answer will indicate which way they are likely to vote.” |
| “We are such a small country we can’t take any more,” said John Whilde, 73, a building worker from Wellingborough who was canvassing. “Eventually there will be no green space left and at the moment we can’t do anything about it. Cameron says he has these concessions, but there’s nothing to say the EU can’t vote them out in a couple of years.” | “We are such a small country we can’t take any more,” said John Whilde, 73, a building worker from Wellingborough who was canvassing. “Eventually there will be no green space left and at the moment we can’t do anything about it. Cameron says he has these concessions, but there’s nothing to say the EU can’t vote them out in a couple of years.” |
| There is “a hint of the Trump situation” about leave activists, said Steve, one of the canvassers. | There is “a hint of the Trump situation” about leave activists, said Steve, one of the canvassers. |
| “It is anti-establishment,” he said. “The outs are people who feel they have been long ignored, whose voice has not been heard, who are treated as little people.” | “It is anti-establishment,” he said. “The outs are people who feel they have been long ignored, whose voice has not been heard, who are treated as little people.” |
| The coming referendum gives them their greatest platform yet. | The coming referendum gives them their greatest platform yet. |