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Iran says it is 'illogical' for it to join oil output freeze | Iran says it is 'illogical' for it to join oil output freeze |
(35 minutes later) | |
Iran's Opec envoy is reported as saying it is "illogical" for it to join the oil output freeze agreed by a Russian and Saudi Arabian-led group on Tuesday. | Iran's Opec envoy is reported as saying it is "illogical" for it to join the oil output freeze agreed by a Russian and Saudi Arabian-led group on Tuesday. |
Mehdi Asali, quoted in the Iranian newspaper, Shargh, said Iran will continue to increase oil production until it reaches pre-sanction levels. | Mehdi Asali, quoted in the Iranian newspaper, Shargh, said Iran will continue to increase oil production until it reaches pre-sanction levels. |
Venezuela's oil minister is holding talks in Tehran to broker a deal with Iran and Iraq on Wednesday. | Venezuela's oil minister is holding talks in Tehran to broker a deal with Iran and Iraq on Wednesday. |
Iran has only just restarted oil exports after sanctions were lifted. | Iran has only just restarted oil exports after sanctions were lifted. |
The move by four countries, including Venezuela and Qatar, is the first of its kind in 15 years. | The move by four countries, including Venezuela and Qatar, is the first of its kind in 15 years. |
It is designed to reflate oil prices, which have sunk by about 70% from their recent peak of $116 in June 2014 thanks to oversupply as the global economy slows down. | It is designed to reflate oil prices, which have sunk by about 70% from their recent peak of $116 in June 2014 thanks to oversupply as the global economy slows down. |
The plan though failed to convince oil traders. | The plan though failed to convince oil traders. |
The "freeze" in output at January levels simply allows oil producers to continue pumping at record levels. | The "freeze" in output at January levels simply allows oil producers to continue pumping at record levels. |
After falling on Tuesday and early Wednesday, the price of a barrel of Brent crude rose by 3% to $33.10 a barrel. US crude was up 2.6% at $29.78. | |
FGE, international energy analysts, said: "Moves to freeze output at January levels will make little difference to the overall supply-demand balance this year and will not be enough to clear the 600,000 barrels per day surplus projected for the year." | FGE, international energy analysts, said: "Moves to freeze output at January levels will make little difference to the overall supply-demand balance this year and will not be enough to clear the 600,000 barrels per day surplus projected for the year." |
'Special terms' | 'Special terms' |
Iraq's oil ministry is in favour of capping production. | Iraq's oil ministry is in favour of capping production. |
It said it was ready to commit to a production freeze if a deal was reached among other producers. | It said it was ready to commit to a production freeze if a deal was reached among other producers. |
But Iran's Mr Asali said to Shargh: "Asking Iran to freeze its oil production level is illogical... when Iran was under sanctions, some countries raised their output and they caused the drop in oil prices. | But Iran's Mr Asali said to Shargh: "Asking Iran to freeze its oil production level is illogical... when Iran was under sanctions, some countries raised their output and they caused the drop in oil prices. |
"How can they expect Iran to co-operate now and pay the price?" | "How can they expect Iran to co-operate now and pay the price?" |
Paul Stevens from the Royal Institute of International Affairs at Chatham House and an expert on the oil markets said: "Before sanctions in 2012 Iran was producing around 4.4 million barrels a day. | Paul Stevens from the Royal Institute of International Affairs at Chatham House and an expert on the oil markets said: "Before sanctions in 2012 Iran was producing around 4.4 million barrels a day. |
"Just before sanctions were lifted in mid-January 2016 it was producing 2.8 million barrels per day. | "Just before sanctions were lifted in mid-January 2016 it was producing 2.8 million barrels per day. |
"Officials have previously said they wish to increase it to 4 million barrels a day within the next three months. I think that is a wildly optimistic figure, but any increase still presents problems in terms of oversupply." | "Officials have previously said they wish to increase it to 4 million barrels a day within the next three months. I think that is a wildly optimistic figure, but any increase still presents problems in terms of oversupply." |
Two non-Iranian sources close to the Opec discussions told Reuters that Iran could be offered special terms as part of the output freeze deal. | Two non-Iranian sources close to the Opec discussions told Reuters that Iran could be offered special terms as part of the output freeze deal. |
'Not credible' | 'Not credible' |
There are doubts over the worth of the move. | There are doubts over the worth of the move. |
Mr Stevens agreed an exception might be made for Iran, but he believed Monday's agreement had "no credibility whatsoever" and was a strategic move by Saudi Arabia. | Mr Stevens agreed an exception might be made for Iran, but he believed Monday's agreement had "no credibility whatsoever" and was a strategic move by Saudi Arabia. |
He pointed out that Russia - not a member of the Opec cartel - had reneged on previous production agreements. | He pointed out that Russia - not a member of the Opec cartel - had reneged on previous production agreements. |
Sebastien Marlier, commodities analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit said these talks marked the beginning of a "fraught, protracted negotiation process within Opec. Yet joint output cuts by both Opec members and Russia remain a distant prospect". | Sebastien Marlier, commodities analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit said these talks marked the beginning of a "fraught, protracted negotiation process within Opec. Yet joint output cuts by both Opec members and Russia remain a distant prospect". |
He, too, believed Saudi Arabia was playing a clever game: "It shows that they are willing to collaborate and are not stubbornly sticking to their painful strategy of flooding the market to evict higher-cost producers. | He, too, believed Saudi Arabia was playing a clever game: "It shows that they are willing to collaborate and are not stubbornly sticking to their painful strategy of flooding the market to evict higher-cost producers. |
"It shifts the burden of responsibility for refusing to cut production to arch-rival Iran. | "It shifts the burden of responsibility for refusing to cut production to arch-rival Iran. |
"Finally, it maintains the status quo while talks are ongoing, thereby continuing to press US shale and other struggling oil producers outside of OPEC. | "Finally, it maintains the status quo while talks are ongoing, thereby continuing to press US shale and other struggling oil producers outside of OPEC. |
Tensions also remain between Saudi Arabia and Russia over Syria. | Tensions also remain between Saudi Arabia and Russia over Syria. |
Russia is supporting President Assad's regime, with help from Iran, while Saudi Arabia as the is backing opposition forces. | Russia is supporting President Assad's regime, with help from Iran, while Saudi Arabia as the is backing opposition forces. |