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UK government borrowing falls in January | UK government borrowing falls in January |
(35 minutes later) | |
Government borrowing fell in January after the UK recorded the largest public finance surplus for any January since 2008. | Government borrowing fell in January after the UK recorded the largest public finance surplus for any January since 2008. |
The Office for National Statistics said the January surplus, excluding banks, rose by £1bn to £11.2bn compared with last year. | The Office for National Statistics said the January surplus, excluding banks, rose by £1bn to £11.2bn compared with last year. |
Surpluses are usually recorded in January because of the high level of tax receipts in the month. | Surpluses are usually recorded in January because of the high level of tax receipts in the month. |
Other figures showed retail sales growth rose much faster than expected. | Other figures showed retail sales growth rose much faster than expected. |
Although the monthly borrowing figure was the highest for eight years, it was below the £12.6bn forecast by economists. | Although the monthly borrowing figure was the highest for eight years, it was below the £12.6bn forecast by economists. |
The Chancellor, George Osborne, tweeted: "With warnings of weaker economic outlook & challenges for future tax receipts this could bring, we can't be complacent & think job is done." | The Chancellor, George Osborne, tweeted: "With warnings of weaker economic outlook & challenges for future tax receipts this could bring, we can't be complacent & think job is done." |
'Work to do' | 'Work to do' |
Government borrowing for the current tax year year, from April 2015 to January, was £66.5bn - £10.6bn lower than at the same point in the previous 12 month period. | Government borrowing for the current tax year year, from April 2015 to January, was £66.5bn - £10.6bn lower than at the same point in the previous 12 month period. |
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has forecast that the government will borrow £73.5bn for the financial year to March. | |
"This still leaves the Chancellor with some work to do over the next few months if he still wants to meet this forecast," said Paul Hollingsworth of Capital Economics. | "This still leaves the Chancellor with some work to do over the next few months if he still wants to meet this forecast," said Paul Hollingsworth of Capital Economics. |
"After all, he is left with around £7bn left to borrow in February and March - last year he borrowed almost £15bn." | "After all, he is left with around £7bn left to borrow in February and March - last year he borrowed almost £15bn." |
Samuel Tombs of Pantheon Macroeconomics said: "Barring revisions, [George Osborne] can borrow only £7bn in the last two months of the fiscal year if he wants to meet the Autumn Statement forecast - a feat not seen since 2003/04." | Samuel Tombs of Pantheon Macroeconomics said: "Barring revisions, [George Osborne] can borrow only £7bn in the last two months of the fiscal year if he wants to meet the Autumn Statement forecast - a feat not seen since 2003/04." |
January's figures include housing associations for the first time because they were now considered to be under public sector control. | January's figures include housing associations for the first time because they were now considered to be under public sector control. |
The change has increased borrowing for the financial year from April 2014 to March 2015 by £3.6bn. | The change has increased borrowing for the financial year from April 2014 to March 2015 by £3.6bn. |
Analysis: Anthony Reuben, business reporter | |
Two months before the end of the financial year, the government is going to have a tricky task trying to meet the OBR's forecast from November. | |
It's not impossible, but the government would have to borrow £7bn in two months, when last year it borrowed £7bn in each month. | |
This is the last set of borrowing figures we're going to get before the Budget on Wednesday 16 March, when we will also get a fresh forecast from the OBR. | |
The November forecast was a slight cut from the July forecast (once you adjust for the inclusion of housing association debt), and it would now not be a great surprise to see the forecast bounce back. | |
Clearance | Clearance |
Separately, the ONS said retail sales volumes jumped 2.3% in January compared with December when they fell by 1.4%, leaving them 5.2% higher for the year. | Separately, the ONS said retail sales volumes jumped 2.3% in January compared with December when they fell by 1.4%, leaving them 5.2% higher for the year. |
The ONS said department stores posted the 34th month of consecutive year-on-year growth - the longest sustained period of growth for such retailers since the economic downturn in 2008. | The ONS said department stores posted the 34th month of consecutive year-on-year growth - the longest sustained period of growth for such retailers since the economic downturn in 2008. |
Keith Richardson, managing director retail sector at Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking, said a cold snap last month prompted shoppers to look for winter coats, jumpers and footwear, while bargain-hunters were out in force in the post-Christmas sales. | Keith Richardson, managing director retail sector at Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking, said a cold snap last month prompted shoppers to look for winter coats, jumpers and footwear, while bargain-hunters were out in force in the post-Christmas sales. |
"Online sales continued to soar, rising 10% year-on-year even as footfall rose, suggesting that those with sophisticated online and mobile operations are now attracting new customers from overseas," he said. | "Online sales continued to soar, rising 10% year-on-year even as footfall rose, suggesting that those with sophisticated online and mobile operations are now attracting new customers from overseas," he said. |