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All eyes on US and Russia as Syria deadline passes All eyes on US and Russia as Syria deadline passes
(7 months later)
A deadline to secure a cessation of hostilities in Syria has passed, further delaying the resumption of UN-brokered peace talks between the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, and the rebels fighting to overthrow him.A deadline to secure a cessation of hostilities in Syria has passed, further delaying the resumption of UN-brokered peace talks between the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, and the rebels fighting to overthrow him.
US and Russian military officials were holding talks in Geneva in advance of a wider meeting of the International Syria Support Group (ISSG) to try to thrash out a deal on a cessation. The arrangement falls short of a formal ceasefire but is seen as a key step towards de-escalating the five-year conflict.US and Russian military officials were holding talks in Geneva in advance of a wider meeting of the International Syria Support Group (ISSG) to try to thrash out a deal on a cessation. The arrangement falls short of a formal ceasefire but is seen as a key step towards de-escalating the five-year conflict.
Last Friday the 20-strong ISSG announced in Munich that it would be trying to secure a cessation in a week, but the intervening days have seen no let-up in violence, with Russia continuing airstrikes against moderate opposition forces, according to diplomats monitoring the crisis. Russia says it is targeting “terrorists”, echoing the Syrian government’s blanket description of all Assad’s opponents.Last Friday the 20-strong ISSG announced in Munich that it would be trying to secure a cessation in a week, but the intervening days have seen no let-up in violence, with Russia continuing airstrikes against moderate opposition forces, according to diplomats monitoring the crisis. Russia says it is targeting “terrorists”, echoing the Syrian government’s blanket description of all Assad’s opponents.
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The hope is that if a joint US-Russian position can be agreed, the UN will negotiate the details of implementation with the parties on the ground. The UN’s Syria envoy, Staffan de Mistura, who was on his way back from meetings Damascus, took part in the talks by videolink.The hope is that if a joint US-Russian position can be agreed, the UN will negotiate the details of implementation with the parties on the ground. The UN’s Syria envoy, Staffan de Mistura, who was on his way back from meetings Damascus, took part in the talks by videolink.
“We need real talks about peace, not just talks about talks,” de Mistura told the Swedish newspaper Svenska Dagblad. “Now the Americans and Russians must sit down and agree on a concrete plan on the cessation of hostilities between today and mid-next week. Now the ball is in their court.”“We need real talks about peace, not just talks about talks,” de Mistura told the Swedish newspaper Svenska Dagblad. “Now the Americans and Russians must sit down and agree on a concrete plan on the cessation of hostilities between today and mid-next week. Now the ball is in their court.”
The only progress since the Munich meeting has been the start of deliveries of humanitarian aid to seven besieged areas across the country. “Humanitarian access has improved this week, but it needs to become a routine, and we also need to see detainees released,” one western official told the Guardian. Air drops to other areas, including Deir el-Zor, which is under siege by Isis, are to begin within days.The only progress since the Munich meeting has been the start of deliveries of humanitarian aid to seven besieged areas across the country. “Humanitarian access has improved this week, but it needs to become a routine, and we also need to see detainees released,” one western official told the Guardian. Air drops to other areas, including Deir el-Zor, which is under siege by Isis, are to begin within days.
But rebels from the Southern Front of the Free Syrian Army complained that there had been no response to urgent appeals for help to be sent to 12,000 people in Daraya, west of Damascus, the target of a fierce military campaign by government forces and Hezbollah. Last year it was hit by 6,580 barrel bombs, the FSA said.But rebels from the Southern Front of the Free Syrian Army complained that there had been no response to urgent appeals for help to be sent to 12,000 people in Daraya, west of Damascus, the target of a fierce military campaign by government forces and Hezbollah. Last year it was hit by 6,580 barrel bombs, the FSA said.
If there are grounds for optimism, it is in the apparently narrowing gap between Washington and Moscow. The high level of interest is shown by the fact that the US team in Geneva is led by Rob Malley, Barack Obama’s chief adviser on Syria, and the Russian side by Alexander Lavrentiev, who does the same job for Vladimir Putin.If there are grounds for optimism, it is in the apparently narrowing gap between Washington and Moscow. The high level of interest is shown by the fact that the US team in Geneva is led by Rob Malley, Barack Obama’s chief adviser on Syria, and the Russian side by Alexander Lavrentiev, who does the same job for Vladimir Putin.
Western sources said it was vital to ensure that any cessation of violence and aid deliveries were clearly linked to a “political transition” – meaning talks on Syria’s future and Assad’s role. Russia has been reluctant to address that.Western sources said it was vital to ensure that any cessation of violence and aid deliveries were clearly linked to a “political transition” – meaning talks on Syria’s future and Assad’s role. Russia has been reluctant to address that.
Since the start of the conflict in 2011 western governments have hoped that Moscow would pressure Assad into changing policy, though that has never happened in any significant way. But Russia’s ambassador to the UN, Vitaly Churkin, said in an interview that Assad needs to respond to the Munich agreement – hinting strongly at disagreements with Damascus.Since the start of the conflict in 2011 western governments have hoped that Moscow would pressure Assad into changing policy, though that has never happened in any significant way. But Russia’s ambassador to the UN, Vitaly Churkin, said in an interview that Assad needs to respond to the Munich agreement – hinting strongly at disagreements with Damascus.
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“Russia has invested very seriously in this crisis, politically, diplomatically and now also militarily,” Churkin told the Kommersant daily. “Therefore we would like al-Assad also to respond to this,” he said, adding that the Syrian leader’s stance “is not in accord with the diplomatic efforts that Russia is making”.“Russia has invested very seriously in this crisis, politically, diplomatically and now also militarily,” Churkin told the Kommersant daily. “Therefore we would like al-Assad also to respond to this,” he said, adding that the Syrian leader’s stance “is not in accord with the diplomatic efforts that Russia is making”.
Churkin was responding to an interview by Assad – just before the Munich deal – in which he pledged to retake the whole of the country and appeared to rule out negotiations. “If they proceed on the basis that no ceasefire is necessary and they need to fight to a victorious end, then this conflict will last a very long time and that is terrifying to imagine,” Churkin said. Syria is “already on the brink of falling apart,” he added.Churkin was responding to an interview by Assad – just before the Munich deal – in which he pledged to retake the whole of the country and appeared to rule out negotiations. “If they proceed on the basis that no ceasefire is necessary and they need to fight to a victorious end, then this conflict will last a very long time and that is terrifying to imagine,” Churkin said. Syria is “already on the brink of falling apart,” he added.
Even if a cessation of hostilities deal is agreed, it is likely to be fragile and viewed with suspicion, especially by rebels who fear they may be walking into a trap. De Mistura implicitly acknowledged this, admitting that it would not be possible “realistically” to reconvene the Geneva talks, as originally scheduled, on 25 February, but they “intend to do so soon”. Meetings began on 29 January but were suspended after just three days without results as Russian airstrikes intensified.Even if a cessation of hostilities deal is agreed, it is likely to be fragile and viewed with suspicion, especially by rebels who fear they may be walking into a trap. De Mistura implicitly acknowledged this, admitting that it would not be possible “realistically” to reconvene the Geneva talks, as originally scheduled, on 25 February, but they “intend to do so soon”. Meetings began on 29 January but were suspended after just three days without results as Russian airstrikes intensified.
Further evidence of intense diplomatic activity around the crisis came in a phonecall between Putin and King Salman of Saudi Arabia, who backs the anti-Assad rebels as firmly as Moscow has supported the Syrian leader. The Saudis also work closely with Turkey, which is increasingly at odds with Russia over Kurdish involvement in the fighting.Further evidence of intense diplomatic activity around the crisis came in a phonecall between Putin and King Salman of Saudi Arabia, who backs the anti-Assad rebels as firmly as Moscow has supported the Syrian leader. The Saudis also work closely with Turkey, which is increasingly at odds with Russia over Kurdish involvement in the fighting.
Fighting continued in Aleppo and Hasakah province, with reports of Russian airstrikes and Turkey bombing Syrian Kurdish forces in the northern border area. The Red Cross said it was “deeply alarmed by the situation in the Aleppo region, where fighting is intensifying, hospitals and health workers have been targeted, people have no water or electricity and more than 70,000 have now fled their homes”.Fighting continued in Aleppo and Hasakah province, with reports of Russian airstrikes and Turkey bombing Syrian Kurdish forces in the northern border area. The Red Cross said it was “deeply alarmed by the situation in the Aleppo region, where fighting is intensifying, hospitals and health workers have been targeted, people have no water or electricity and more than 70,000 have now fled their homes”.