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| Tories on Europe: the ins, the outs and the not clears | Tories on Europe: the ins, the outs and the not clears |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| THE IN SIDE | THE IN SIDE |
| Confirmed: | Confirmed: |
| David CameronThe prime minister declared he would campaign heart and soul to keep Britain in the EU after achieving his deal with the 27 other leaders of member states. He says it is vital for the UK’s prosperity and security. | David CameronThe prime minister declared he would campaign heart and soul to keep Britain in the EU after achieving his deal with the 27 other leaders of member states. He says it is vital for the UK’s prosperity and security. |
| George Osborne, chancellorThe chancellor has taken a big personal role in the EU negotiations alongside Cameron and is ideologically as well as practically in the remain camp. He told the BBC’s Today programme that Cameron had negotiated a “special status” for the UK, while Brexit would be a “leap in the dark”. | George Osborne, chancellorThe chancellor has taken a big personal role in the EU negotiations alongside Cameron and is ideologically as well as practically in the remain camp. He told the BBC’s Today programme that Cameron had negotiated a “special status” for the UK, while Brexit would be a “leap in the dark”. |
| Theresa May, home secretaryShe fuelled speculation that she could campaign to leave, with a conference speech that talked of the difficulties of reducing immigration from inside the EU. However, May confirmed on Saturday morning that she backed the deal. She said it included “important reforms to end the abuse of free movement” and it “strengthens our ability to deport dangerous foreign criminals”. | Theresa May, home secretaryShe fuelled speculation that she could campaign to leave, with a conference speech that talked of the difficulties of reducing immigration from inside the EU. However, May confirmed on Saturday morning that she backed the deal. She said it included “important reforms to end the abuse of free movement” and it “strengthens our ability to deport dangerous foreign criminals”. |
| Greg Hands, chief financial secretary to the TreasuryHands has always been considered strongly eurosceptic but he actually explained in 2013 that he was never against membership of the EU – just in favour of radical reform. He tweeted: “This deal is best for UK future.” | Greg Hands, chief financial secretary to the TreasuryHands has always been considered strongly eurosceptic but he actually explained in 2013 that he was never against membership of the EU – just in favour of radical reform. He tweeted: “This deal is best for UK future.” |
| Oliver Letwin, Cabinet Office ministerThe chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster had said he was prepared to vote to leave the EU, but that there was probably an 80/20 chance that the renegotiations would succeed and satisfy him. He told Sky News that it was a “good deal” and that he would be on the remain side. | Oliver Letwin, Cabinet Office ministerThe chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster had said he was prepared to vote to leave the EU, but that there was probably an 80/20 chance that the renegotiations would succeed and satisfy him. He told Sky News that it was a “good deal” and that he would be on the remain side. |
| Very likely in: | Very likely in: |
| Philip Hammond, foreign secretaryThe foreign secretary is regarded as a turncoat by Eurosceptics, as he is widely expected to ditch his former reservations about the EU to back the in campaign. He once had a reputation for Euroscepticism, having said he would vote to leave the EU as it stands because the status quo is “simply unacceptable”. | Philip Hammond, foreign secretaryThe foreign secretary is regarded as a turncoat by Eurosceptics, as he is widely expected to ditch his former reservations about the EU to back the in campaign. He once had a reputation for Euroscepticism, having said he would vote to leave the EU as it stands because the status quo is “simply unacceptable”. |
| Jeremy Hunt, health secretaryThe health secretary also said he would vote to leave the EU if Cameron did not negotiate to his satisfaction – but it seems unlikely he would break with the Downing Street consensus. | Jeremy Hunt, health secretaryThe health secretary also said he would vote to leave the EU if Cameron did not negotiate to his satisfaction – but it seems unlikely he would break with the Downing Street consensus. |
| Justine Greening, development secretaryThe development secretary has been named as a probable out-er but she spoke firmly in favour of Cameron’s Brussels deal earlier this month. “I happen to agree with the prime minister, I think this is a good deal, I hope we can seal the deal when he goes to Brussels later this month,” she said. | Justine Greening, development secretaryThe development secretary has been named as a probable out-er but she spoke firmly in favour of Cameron’s Brussels deal earlier this month. “I happen to agree with the prime minister, I think this is a good deal, I hope we can seal the deal when he goes to Brussels later this month,” she said. |
| Nicky Morgan, education secretaryMorgan has said she finds it difficult to imagine voting for the UK to leave the EU. | Nicky Morgan, education secretaryMorgan has said she finds it difficult to imagine voting for the UK to leave the EU. |
| Patrick McLoughlin, transport secretaryThe transport secretary has said there are frustrations about Europe but it does not affect him too much in his job, which are not the words of a Eurosceptic. In October, he urged the government and media to do more to make the positive case for EU membership rather than “always looking on the negative side”. | Patrick McLoughlin, transport secretaryThe transport secretary has said there are frustrations about Europe but it does not affect him too much in his job, which are not the words of a Eurosceptic. In October, he urged the government and media to do more to make the positive case for EU membership rather than “always looking on the negative side”. |
| Elizabeth Truss, environment secretaryTruss has described herself as a Eurosceptic but made a speech to farmers in January that sounded like she was backing Cameron’s deal, saying: “I fully support the prime minister’s renegotiation of our relationship with the EU ... Of course it is difficult – negotiating with 27 countries will never be easy. But front and centre of our mind is Britain’s economic and national security.” | Elizabeth Truss, environment secretaryTruss has described herself as a Eurosceptic but made a speech to farmers in January that sounded like she was backing Cameron’s deal, saying: “I fully support the prime minister’s renegotiation of our relationship with the EU ... Of course it is difficult – negotiating with 27 countries will never be easy. But front and centre of our mind is Britain’s economic and national security.” |
| Sajid Javid, business secretaryThe business secretary has been striking a very Eurosceptic note of late, refusing to rule out campaigning to leave, berating the CBI for being too pro-EU, saying he would not shed a tear if the UK left and telling the in campaign that the costs of staying in the EU currently outweigh the benefits. However, it seems he has fallen into line with his old boss Osborne, with the Spectator reporting he is too concerned about the risks given the parlous state of the global economy. | Sajid Javid, business secretaryThe business secretary has been striking a very Eurosceptic note of late, refusing to rule out campaigning to leave, berating the CBI for being too pro-EU, saying he would not shed a tear if the UK left and telling the in campaign that the costs of staying in the EU currently outweigh the benefits. However, it seems he has fallen into line with his old boss Osborne, with the Spectator reporting he is too concerned about the risks given the parlous state of the global economy. |
| Greg Clark, communities secretaryClark is a quiet loyalist and it is hard to imagine him breaking with the Downing Street line. He has previously written in support of renegotiation with the EU. | Greg Clark, communities secretaryClark is a quiet loyalist and it is hard to imagine him breaking with the Downing Street line. He has previously written in support of renegotiation with the EU. |
| Stephen Crabb, Welsh secretaryHe has said that Welsh businesses are “huge winners” from EU membership and seems likely to be on the side of staying in the EU after the renegotiation. | Stephen Crabb, Welsh secretaryHe has said that Welsh businesses are “huge winners” from EU membership and seems likely to be on the side of staying in the EU after the renegotiation. |
| David Mundell, Scottish secretaryMundell has argued that Scotland benefits from the terms of Britain’s EU membership, and will be aware of the dangers for the union if the UK votes to leave. | David Mundell, Scottish secretaryMundell has argued that Scotland benefits from the terms of Britain’s EU membership, and will be aware of the dangers for the union if the UK votes to leave. |
| Amber Rudd, energy secretaryRudd was barracked during a recent Question Time appearance for not having shown her hand but it is highly likely she will end up supporting the prime minister. “I would like to see a reformed EU, and then I’d like to campaign to stay in,” she told the Telegraph recently. | Amber Rudd, energy secretaryRudd was barracked during a recent Question Time appearance for not having shown her hand but it is highly likely she will end up supporting the prime minister. “I would like to see a reformed EU, and then I’d like to campaign to stay in,” she told the Telegraph recently. |
| Mark Harper, chief whipAs chief whip, he is engaged in the Downing Street operation to persuade wavering Tory MPs to make sure they are on board with the prime minister. | Mark Harper, chief whipAs chief whip, he is engaged in the Downing Street operation to persuade wavering Tory MPs to make sure they are on board with the prime minister. |
| Anna Soubry, business ministerSoubry is outspoken in her support for staying in the EU, having described many Eurosceptics as obsessives who have an unhealthy tendency to “live, eat, drink, sleep” the campaign to pull Britain out. | Anna Soubry, business ministerSoubry is outspoken in her support for staying in the EU, having described many Eurosceptics as obsessives who have an unhealthy tendency to “live, eat, drink, sleep” the campaign to pull Britain out. |
| Michael Fallon, defence secretaryThe defence secretary said last year that the whole cabinet was Eurosceptic. But his reputation as a very trusted lieutenant of Cameron means he is expected to keep quiet and toe the party line. | Michael Fallon, defence secretaryThe defence secretary said last year that the whole cabinet was Eurosceptic. But his reputation as a very trusted lieutenant of Cameron means he is expected to keep quiet and toe the party line. |
| Matthew Hancock, Cabinet Office ministerHancock has not declared, but he is a loyalist and former chief of staff to Osborne, so it is difficult to see him breaking rank. | Matthew Hancock, Cabinet Office ministerHancock has not declared, but he is a loyalist and former chief of staff to Osborne, so it is difficult to see him breaking rank. |
| NOT CLEAR | NOT CLEAR |
| Boris Johnson The London mayor is not a minister but he sits in Cameron’s political cabinet. He is thought to be an instinctive in-campaigner, but has flirted heavily with Euroscepticism in recent months and could make the leap to lead the out camp if he thought it had a chance of winning. To lead a victorious leave campaign would bolster his prime ministerial ambitions. | Boris Johnson The London mayor is not a minister but he sits in Cameron’s political cabinet. He is thought to be an instinctive in-campaigner, but has flirted heavily with Euroscepticism in recent months and could make the leap to lead the out camp if he thought it had a chance of winning. To lead a victorious leave campaign would bolster his prime ministerial ambitions. |
| Robert Halfon, Conservative deputy chairmanHalfon is a staunch Eurosceptic, telling Buzzfeed last year: “Yes, I would vote to leave but I genuinely want to see what Cameron does.” Since then, he has had a rapid rise under the sponsorship of Osborne, so it is possible he could be persuaded to back the remainers. | Robert Halfon, Conservative deputy chairmanHalfon is a staunch Eurosceptic, telling Buzzfeed last year: “Yes, I would vote to leave but I genuinely want to see what Cameron does.” Since then, he has had a rapid rise under the sponsorship of Osborne, so it is possible he could be persuaded to back the remainers. |
| Jeremy Wright, attorney generalThe government’s most senior lawyer is said to be torn about which side to support. | Jeremy Wright, attorney generalThe government’s most senior lawyer is said to be torn about which side to support. |
| THE OUT SIDE | THE OUT SIDE |
| Confirmed out: | Confirmed out: |
| Michael Gove, justice secretaryNumber 10 thought they had won over Gove, who is a loyal friend of Cameron and Osborne but he wavered over the thinness of the deal. The prime minister confirmed that Gove would campaign on the opposite side to him in the referendum after the deal was announced, expressing disappointment. | |
| Very likely out: | Very likely out: |
| Iain Duncan Smith, work and pensions secretaryThe work and pensions secretary is probably the most likely cabinet ministers to campaign for an exit and could end up resigning over the issue. A committed Eurosceptic, he was one of the original Maastricht rebels. | Iain Duncan Smith, work and pensions secretaryThe work and pensions secretary is probably the most likely cabinet ministers to campaign for an exit and could end up resigning over the issue. A committed Eurosceptic, he was one of the original Maastricht rebels. |
| Chris Grayling, leader of the House of CommonsThe leader of the House is another long-term Eurosceptic who has said leaving the EU is not a frightening prospect. He has already been moved to a lesser cabinet role from his previous job as justice secretary, meaning he has less to lose in terms of prospects of promotion under the current leadership. | Chris Grayling, leader of the House of CommonsThe leader of the House is another long-term Eurosceptic who has said leaving the EU is not a frightening prospect. He has already been moved to a lesser cabinet role from his previous job as justice secretary, meaning he has less to lose in terms of prospects of promotion under the current leadership. |
| Theresa Villiers, Northern Ireland secretaryThe Northern Ireland secretary is one of the most Eurosceptic members of the cabinet. Having represented London for six years as a Eurosceptic MEP, she is unlikely to want to pass up the chance to campaign for a British exit. | Theresa Villiers, Northern Ireland secretaryThe Northern Ireland secretary is one of the most Eurosceptic members of the cabinet. Having represented London for six years as a Eurosceptic MEP, she is unlikely to want to pass up the chance to campaign for a British exit. |
| Priti Patel, employment ministerPatel is a former communications chief for the Referendum party and a staunch Eurosceptic. It is highly possible she could become one of the main faces of the leave campaign. Before becoming a minister, she said the British public “want less Europe and more Britain”. | Priti Patel, employment ministerPatel is a former communications chief for the Referendum party and a staunch Eurosceptic. It is highly possible she could become one of the main faces of the leave campaign. Before becoming a minister, she said the British public “want less Europe and more Britain”. |
| John Whittingdale, culture secretaryThe culture secretary is an old-time Eurosceptic and is thought to be prepared to back the out-ers. | John Whittingdale, culture secretaryThe culture secretary is an old-time Eurosceptic and is thought to be prepared to back the out-ers. |