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London’s mayor, a big beast of British politics, ready to make a call on Brexit London’s mayor, a big beast of British politics, said to back Brexit
(35 minutes later)
LONDON-- British Prime Minister David Cameron on Sunday morning made a direct appeal to the London Mayor Boris Johnson to back his campaign for Britain to remain in the European Union. LONDON-- Mayor Boris Johnson, one of the most charismatic figures in U.K. politics, threw his considerable influence behind the push for a British exit from the E.U. on Sunday, the BBC reported, instantly galvanizing the campaign and potentially tipping the country toward a vote to leave in a June referendum.
With opinion polls showing the E.U. referendum, set to be staged on June 23rd, on a knife edge, both the “leave” and “remain” camps are vying for Johnson, a big beast in British politics. A decision to defy Prime Minister David Cameron, a fellow Conservative, would represent a personal gamble and a coup for the “leave” camp, which has been riven by bickering factions and lacked a high-profile, broadly palatable leader.
“I would say to Boris, what I say to everybody else, which is that we will be safer, we will be stronger, we will be better off inside the E.U.,” Cameron said on the BBC’s Andrew Marr Show. While Johnson had long been coy about his intentions, the conventional political wisdom in Britain only days ago was that the mayor would ultimately take the safe bet and side with “in.” But if the BBC report is accurate, Johnson exploded that belief with a call for Brits to cut ties with the continent.
Johnson, 51, has yet to make good on his promise to “come off the fence with deafening éclat” soon after Cameron had secured an E.U. deal in Brussels following around-the-clock negotiations. Johnson has recorded a broadcast interview to be aired Sunday evening, and has written a column for the Daily Telegraph explaining his views that will be published Monday.
But several British media outlets said he would make his views known Sunday night, and then publish a longer explanation in his Monday column for the Daily Telegraph. Speculation is rife that he will come out for the “leave” side. The mop-haired mayor’s announcement adds a new layer of meaning to a referendum already heavily laden with consequence. When Britons vote on June 23, the ballot will ask simply whether the country should stay in the E.U. or go.
“Headline tomorrow, ‘It’s BoGo?’” quipped Marr on his show. But also at stake will be the future of the 28-member bloc, the viability of the United Kingdom itself and Britain’s standing as Washington’s closest and most important ally.
Snagging Johnson would be a major coup for the “leave” campaign, popularly known as “Brexit,” which has been dogged by bickering factions and the lack of a high-profile leader. Now, the keys to 10 Downing Street could be on the line, as well.
[European leaders strike deal to try to keep Britain in the E.U.][European leaders strike deal to try to keep Britain in the E.U.]
A recent poll by Ipsos Mori sheds light on why his endorsement matters: 32 percent said they would take Johnson’s views into account when making up their mind on the E.U. question. Cameron was only slightly more influential, with 44 percent of people saying his views would be important to them when making a decision. The 51-year-old Johnson has long coveted the top job in British politics. If he leads the U.K. out of Europe, convincing a majority of British voters to ignore the prime minister’s passionate call for the country to stay in, there will likely be intense pressure on Cameron to step down. And Johnson, having seized the populist moment, would be uniquely positioned to take his place.
But not only is the future of Britain on the line, the premiership could be too. Cameron once named Johnson as one of three possible successors after he steps down, as planned, before the end of his second term in 2020; the other two have both backed the “in” campaign.
So far, the contest has largely been fought in abstract policy land, but if Johnson backs Brexit it will likely pivot to being something more personal, pitting him directly against pro-E.U. Cameron. Johnson was the last major British politician to reveal his stance on the E.U. vote, with others having declared their intentions on Saturday -- when Cameron officially announced the referendum date -- or long ago. In keeping with Johnson’s reputation for high-profile stunts and ego-enhancing maneuvers, he kept both sides guessing throughout Sunday – and forced both to plea for his backing.
Johnson, a charismatic Conservative politician, is considered by some to be a future leader of his party. Indeed, Cameron, who says he won’t seek a third term, has identified Johnson, George Osborne, and Theresa May as potential successors. The latter two have said that they want Britain to stay in the 28-nation bloc. Cameron took to the BBC Sunday morning to ask that Johnson carefully consider the impact of his choice.
If Cameron loses the referendum, he would come under enormous pressure to resign. Would Johnson, the biggest personality in the Brexit camp, then be in a position to rocket to 10 Downing Street? “I would say to Boris what I say to everybody else, which is that we will be safer, we will be stronger, we will be better off inside the E.U.” Cameron told host Andrew Marr.
Johnson is one of Britain’s most popular politicians. A gifted communicator, he has cultivated a bumbling, gaffe-prone public persona that has made him something of a political star. Less charismatic politicians might find themselves in a bit of a muddle if they got stuck dangling from a zipwire during the Olympics, or had flattened a 10-year-old boy during a rugby match in Japan. But Johnson has a unique way of disentangling himself from mishaps that makes him more likeable. But perhaps anticipating that the mayor had already locked in his decision to side with “out,” Cameron also took some digs at Johnson, musing about whether the mayor wanted to be “linking arms” with Nigel Farage and George Galloway – prominent E.U. critics who inhabit, respectively, the far-right and far-left extremes of British politics.
Until Johnson’s announcement, only relatively marginal political figures had taken up the cause of Brexit. The choice to cut ties with Europe is more popular at the grassroots of British politics than it is among elected officials. Recent opinion polls show that the “in” and “out” camps are effectively tied.
That’s a striking shift from the landscape only months ago, when a clear majority of Brits seemed to favor staying in the union that has defined the postwar political and economic order on the continent.
But the continent’s struggles with the refugee crisis, its persistent economic malaise and its longstanding pattern of dysfunction have all contributed to rising dissatisfaction among Brits – and a growing desire to sever a decades-long relationship.
The consequences of such a choice would be felt globally. Britain has long been an ambivalent member of the E.U., deeply skeptical of political integration and refusing to go along with major initiatives such as the common currency and the passport-free Schengen zone.
But it is also one of the union’s cornerstone members, with a seat at the U.N. Security Council, a nuclear arsenal and the world’s fifth largest economy. A U.K departure could cause the E.U. to crumble at a time when it is already inundated with crises, and facing rising Euroskepticism continent-wide.
Britain’s E.U. partners have all pleaded for the country to stay, as has the United States. President Obama has said that both the E.U. and Britain are better off with the U.K. inside the bloc. U.S. officials have suggested that British influence would be vastly diminished if Britain chooses to get out, threatening the “special relationship” between the two nations.
The U.K. itself could be vulnerable to a breakup if the country votes to leave the union: Scotland is considerably more pro-E.U. than England, and Scottish leaders have said they will revive a call for independence should Britain opt for Brexit. A referendum on independence two years ago went down to a relatively narrow defeat.
Cameron has staked his legacy to settling both of Britain’s great existential questions -- one country or two, part of Europe or not. In both cases, he has favored the status quo.
But now Johnson, whom critics regard as a craven opportunist, could disrupt those plans.
[London Mayor Boris Johnson clobbers young boy while playing touch rugby][London Mayor Boris Johnson clobbers young boy while playing touch rugby]
His eight-year tenure as mayor of London has received mixed reviews, but he is a colorful character who stands out from other politicians. A recent poll by Ipsos Mori sheds light on why his endorsement of the “out” camp matters: A third of British voters said they would take Johnson’s views into account when making up their mind on the E.U. (44 percent said the same about Cameron.)
Still, hitching his wagon to the “leave” camp could be a big career gamble. Most analysts think that Britons will vote to “remain” in the E.U., and it’s possible Cameron could revoke his offer to give Johnson a top job in his government when he stands down as mayor in May. A gifted communicator, Johnson has cultivated a bumbling, gaffe-prone public persona that has somehow worked to his advantage, making him relatable to voters outside the London political bubble and diverting attention from his thoroughly upper-crust English background. Less charming politicians might find themselves in a bit of trouble if they got stuck dangling from a zipwire during the Olympics, or had flattened a 10-year-old boy during a rugby match in Japan. But Johnson has a unique way of disentangling himself from mishaps both large and small.
On Saturday, six ministers came out in favor of Brexit -- most notably, Justice Secretary Michael Gove -- but all eyes are still on Johnson, to see if he will transform the so-called “gang of six” into the “magnificent seven.” His eight-year tenure as mayor of London has received mixed reviews – aides acknowledge he’s often disengaged, distracted by roles as an author, newspaper columnist and television personality -- but he is a colorful character who stands out from other identikit politicians.
In his column for the Daily Telegraph earlier this month, he seemed torn. He summed up the case for and against like this: Still, hitching his wagon to the “leave” camp could be a big gamble. If Britain votes to stay in the E.U., Cameron could revoke his offer to give Johnson a top cabinet job when he stands down as mayor in May.
“Britain in the E.U. good, in so far as that means helping to shape the destiny of a troubled continent in uncertain times, while trading freely with our partners. Britain in the E.U. bad, in so far as it is a political project whose destiny of ever-closer union we don’t accept and whose lust to regulate we can’t stop.” On Saturday, six of Cameron’s senior ministers came out in favor of Brexit, including his close friend, Justice Secretary Michael Gove.
He also made it clear he wasn’t bowled over by the reforms on the table. In the all-important area of migration, where Cameron secured a deal to restrict benefits for E.U. citizens living in the U.K., Johnson wrote: “Why didn’t we try harder to recapture control of our borders, rather than stick at this minor (if worthwhile) change to the law on benefits?” But unlike Gove, a Euroskeptic of long-standing, Johnson has a complicated history of views on Europe that have at times appeared to sway with the political winds.
He is also concerned about Britain ceding powers to Brussels. On Cameron’s proposed reforms to boost sovereignty, he wrote, “Are we talking bazooka or popgun?” Tim Farron, leader of the pro-E.U. Liberal Democrats, took aim at that inconsistency on Sunday, saying “Boris has had more positions on Europe than the Karma Sutra.”
Those campaigning for Brexit are desperate for Johnson to bat for their team. A Facebook page called "Back Brexit Boris" was set up in hopes of persuading him, while others have been tweeting with the hashtag #BeBraveBoris. In Johnson’s column for the Daily Telegraph earlier this month, he seemed torn. He summed up the case for and against like this:
Will their pleas be answered, or fall on deaf ears? We’ll soon find out. “Britain in the EU good, in so far as that means helping to shape the destiny of a troubled continent in uncertain times, while trading freely with our partners. Britain in the EU bad, in so far as it is a political project whose destiny of ever-closer union we don’t accept and whose lust to regulate we can’t stop.”
He also made it clear he wasn’t bowled over by the reforms that Cameron was negotiating with Europe to boost British sovereignty. “Are we talking bazooka or popgun?” he asked.