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| Version 1 | Version 2 |
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| Irish election results show Fine Gael misread public mood | Irish election results show Fine Gael misread public mood |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| Now that the votes have been counted, the only thing left is to try to interpret what the Irish voters have said. | Now that the votes have been counted, the only thing left is to try to interpret what the Irish voters have said. |
| One of the benefits of a proportional representation system is that it allows Irish voters to deliver multiple messages, and they have certainly done that. The clearest message has been sent to Enda Kenny’s Fine Gael party, whose campaign slogan “Keep the Recovery Going” had no resonance with the more than 60% of people who say they have not experienced its benefits. | |
| For them, the recovery is something happening in parts of Dublin. It is no coincidence that these are the areas where the swing against Fine Gael was weakest. | For them, the recovery is something happening in parts of Dublin. It is no coincidence that these are the areas where the swing against Fine Gael was weakest. |
| Fine Gael misread the mood of the people. Its promise to scrap the universal social charge (USC), a graduated tax on all income over €13,000, was the biggest single election giveaway ever – and seen as a misstep when hospital waiting lists and vital social services are being cut. | Fine Gael misread the mood of the people. Its promise to scrap the universal social charge (USC), a graduated tax on all income over €13,000, was the biggest single election giveaway ever – and seen as a misstep when hospital waiting lists and vital social services are being cut. |
| The public has learned the lessons of the economic crash and favours improving social services and having a rainy day fund over the lure of more money to spend. | The public has learned the lessons of the economic crash and favours improving social services and having a rainy day fund over the lure of more money to spend. |
| While Fine Gael’s campaign – which closely mirrored the 2015 Tory campaign in the UK, even repeating the awful “long-term economic plan” line – missed the public mood, Fianna Fáil managed to catch it. | While Fine Gael’s campaign – which closely mirrored the 2015 Tory campaign in the UK, even repeating the awful “long-term economic plan” line – missed the public mood, Fianna Fáil managed to catch it. |
| The party’s campaign was built on the twin slogans of a fairer recovery and an “Ireland for All”. While Kenny was seen only at carefully choreographed, voter-free events, the Fianna Fáil leader, Micheál Martin, was out and about engaging with voters. | |
| Martin was also the hands-down winner of the three televised party leaders’ debates. As a result, Fianna Fáil – deemed an irrelevance only a year ago – came within 1.2 points of Fine Gael in the public vote, having lagged 19 points behind in the 2011 election. | Martin was also the hands-down winner of the three televised party leaders’ debates. As a result, Fianna Fáil – deemed an irrelevance only a year ago – came within 1.2 points of Fine Gael in the public vote, having lagged 19 points behind in the 2011 election. |
| Not even the most optimistic of Fianna Fáil supporters would have publicly predicted this result last year. The party’s growing support seems to have escaped most observers’ attention, perhaps because Martin and his team set about working calmly on the ground. | Not even the most optimistic of Fianna Fáil supporters would have publicly predicted this result last year. The party’s growing support seems to have escaped most observers’ attention, perhaps because Martin and his team set about working calmly on the ground. |
| This approach contrasted with that of Sinn Féin, which once again failed to convert the capitulation of the vote for one of its rivals into an equal gain for itself. | This approach contrasted with that of Sinn Féin, which once again failed to convert the capitulation of the vote for one of its rivals into an equal gain for itself. |
| This was the case in 2011 when Sinn Féin gained nine of the 51 seats lost by Fianna Fáil, and it appears to be the case again this time, as the party looks like picking up eight or nine of the 30 or more seats lost by Labour. | This was the case in 2011 when Sinn Féin gained nine of the 51 seats lost by Fianna Fáil, and it appears to be the case again this time, as the party looks like picking up eight or nine of the 30 or more seats lost by Labour. |
| Its 13.8% support was nowhere near the 18-19% suggested in the polls only a few weeks ago, and the reluctance of more people to join its “Rising”, as Sinn Féin labelled its campaign, is a blow in this the centenary year of 1916. Despite Sinn Féin’s shouting, this time it is not the story. | Its 13.8% support was nowhere near the 18-19% suggested in the polls only a few weeks ago, and the reluctance of more people to join its “Rising”, as Sinn Féin labelled its campaign, is a blow in this the centenary year of 1916. Despite Sinn Féin’s shouting, this time it is not the story. |
| • Derek Mooney is a former Fianna Fáil government adviser and campaign strategist who now works as a public affairs and communications consultant in Dublin and Brussels. Follow him on Twitter at @dsmooney | • Derek Mooney is a former Fianna Fáil government adviser and campaign strategist who now works as a public affairs and communications consultant in Dublin and Brussels. Follow him on Twitter at @dsmooney |