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| Iran election results put Hassan Rouhani on cautious path to reform | Iran election results put Hassan Rouhani on cautious path to reform |
| (about 4 hours later) | |
| Hassan Rouhani’s friends and enemies alike identify him as the architect of Iran’s nuclear agreement that finally brought the end of sanctions last month. After last Friday’s elections the man who made the Barjam – the Persian acronym for the laboriously negotiated deal – should be able to pursue further opening-up to the west, and perhaps implement gradual change at home. | Hassan Rouhani’s friends and enemies alike identify him as the architect of Iran’s nuclear agreement that finally brought the end of sanctions last month. After last Friday’s elections the man who made the Barjam – the Persian acronym for the laboriously negotiated deal – should be able to pursue further opening-up to the west, and perhaps implement gradual change at home. |
| Related: The Guardian view on Iran’s elections: the people make their views very clear | Editorial | |
| The results of the twin elections for parliament and the clerical assembly of experts have been a significant boost for the president and vindicated the policy of engagement he has pursued since 2013. On the evidence of the results so far, in the next Majlis, the Iranian parliament, he will enjoy the support of a coalition of reformists, centrists or pragmatic conservatives more ready to confront suspicious hardliners. | The results of the twin elections for parliament and the clerical assembly of experts have been a significant boost for the president and vindicated the policy of engagement he has pursued since 2013. On the evidence of the results so far, in the next Majlis, the Iranian parliament, he will enjoy the support of a coalition of reformists, centrists or pragmatic conservatives more ready to confront suspicious hardliners. |
| In the run-up to the Vienna breakthrough last July, Rouhani came under severe pressure from “principlists” opposed to dealing with the US and Europe. Mohammad Javad Zarif, his foreign minister, was labelled a traitor and threatened with being buried in the concrete to be used to decommission the Arak nuclear reactor. | In the run-up to the Vienna breakthrough last July, Rouhani came under severe pressure from “principlists” opposed to dealing with the US and Europe. Mohammad Javad Zarif, his foreign minister, was labelled a traitor and threatened with being buried in the concrete to be used to decommission the Arak nuclear reactor. |
| Despite the widespread disqualifications of candidates, reformists did not abandon the race. Instead, they threw their weight behind a coalition with little-known independents and moderate conservatives that are on course to outnumber hardliners opposed to Rouhani. | Despite the widespread disqualifications of candidates, reformists did not abandon the race. Instead, they threw their weight behind a coalition with little-known independents and moderate conservatives that are on course to outnumber hardliners opposed to Rouhani. |
| Ali Larijani, the outgoing Majlis speaker, is a principlist from Qom but is on the president’s side – and serves as a useful conduit to the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The same is true of Ali Motahari, a conservative on social issues – for example he supports compulsory hijab for women – but moderate on others. | Ali Larijani, the outgoing Majlis speaker, is a principlist from Qom but is on the president’s side – and serves as a useful conduit to the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The same is true of Ali Motahari, a conservative on social issues – for example he supports compulsory hijab for women – but moderate on others. |
| “Rouhani will face less opposition in the Majlis than before,” said Sadegh Zibakalam, a professor of politics at Tehran University. “How much less we will have to wait and see.” | “Rouhani will face less opposition in the Majlis than before,” said Sadegh Zibakalam, a professor of politics at Tehran University. “How much less we will have to wait and see.” |
| Zibakalam hopes Rouhani may be able to secure the freedom of Mir-Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, presumed winners of the 2009 presidential election that was allegedly “stolen” by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The fact that they remain under house arrest vividly illustrates Rouhani’s limitations. | Zibakalam hopes Rouhani may be able to secure the freedom of Mir-Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, presumed winners of the 2009 presidential election that was allegedly “stolen” by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The fact that they remain under house arrest vividly illustrates Rouhani’s limitations. |
| Arvin, a cartoonist for the reformist Shargh paper, captured the sense of hope for change in Iran with the image of a ballot box sprouting wings and a dove holding an olive branch in its beak. | Arvin, a cartoonist for the reformist Shargh paper, captured the sense of hope for change in Iran with the image of a ballot box sprouting wings and a dove holding an olive branch in its beak. |
| Analysts say Rouhani should find it easier to pursue economic liberalisation to attract investment to boost growth and create jobs for millions of Iranians, beyond a 25% drop in inflation and the brokers rubbing their hands at the potential of the Tehran stock exchange. | Analysts say Rouhani should find it easier to pursue economic liberalisation to attract investment to boost growth and create jobs for millions of Iranians, beyond a 25% drop in inflation and the brokers rubbing their hands at the potential of the Tehran stock exchange. |
| Hardliners use nationalist rhetoric to attack Rouhani’s post-sanctions business deals as serving a pampered elite and European not national interests, which they argue require a “resistance economy”. Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel, Khamenei’s confidant and head of the principlist election list, warned of foreigners seeking “to turn Iran into a bazaar of useless objects”. The Revolutionary Guards fear damage to their extensive financial interests: Mohammed Ali Vakili, a leading reformist, cautioned that in future they could not expect to be be exempt from taxes. | Hardliners use nationalist rhetoric to attack Rouhani’s post-sanctions business deals as serving a pampered elite and European not national interests, which they argue require a “resistance economy”. Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel, Khamenei’s confidant and head of the principlist election list, warned of foreigners seeking “to turn Iran into a bazaar of useless objects”. The Revolutionary Guards fear damage to their extensive financial interests: Mohammed Ali Vakili, a leading reformist, cautioned that in future they could not expect to be be exempt from taxes. |
| Related: Saudi Arabia v Iran: Riyadh defiant and angry after turbulent week | Related: Saudi Arabia v Iran: Riyadh defiant and angry after turbulent week |
| The next parliament, Zibakalam argues, should be less docile and ready to question Iran’s staunch support for Syria’s Bashar al-Assad and the role played by the Revolutionary Guards, and to debate what it should be doing about fighting Islamic State, or the country’s deteriorating relations with Saudi Arabia. Others think that is a longer shot than hoping Rouhani will be ready to tackle the powerful judiciary or reduce regime monitoring of social behaviour. | The next parliament, Zibakalam argues, should be less docile and ready to question Iran’s staunch support for Syria’s Bashar al-Assad and the role played by the Revolutionary Guards, and to debate what it should be doing about fighting Islamic State, or the country’s deteriorating relations with Saudi Arabia. Others think that is a longer shot than hoping Rouhani will be ready to tackle the powerful judiciary or reduce regime monitoring of social behaviour. |
| The final outcome will be determined by runoff votes and alliances on specific issues. Iranians understand, however, that there are strict limits to what Rouhani will be able to achieve even with a more friendly parliament – and to his own readiness to confront Khamenei, who welcomed the elections but also warned of the need to be aware of the dangers of “global arrogance”. | The final outcome will be determined by runoff votes and alliances on specific issues. Iranians understand, however, that there are strict limits to what Rouhani will be able to achieve even with a more friendly parliament – and to his own readiness to confront Khamenei, who welcomed the elections but also warned of the need to be aware of the dangers of “global arrogance”. |
| Power in the Islamic Republic remains firmly in the hands of the supreme leader even if Hashemi Rafsanjani’s strong performance in the assembly of experts, despite vicious smear campaigns, has reminded hardliners that their grip can be weakened. Recent harassment of dissidents and record numbers of executions reflect their anger and unease. Reformists say they fear a backlash. | Power in the Islamic Republic remains firmly in the hands of the supreme leader even if Hashemi Rafsanjani’s strong performance in the assembly of experts, despite vicious smear campaigns, has reminded hardliners that their grip can be weakened. Recent harassment of dissidents and record numbers of executions reflect their anger and unease. Reformists say they fear a backlash. |
| “Parliament is only a secondary source of power,” warns the economist Saeed Leylaz. “Without Khamenei’s agreement we will not be able to do anything and there will be no fundamental change.” | “Parliament is only a secondary source of power,” warns the economist Saeed Leylaz. “Without Khamenei’s agreement we will not be able to do anything and there will be no fundamental change.” |
| Baby steps towards reform in a region dominated by fears of Isis – and where democratic aspirations have so often been answered by violence – may still be the most that Iranians can expect. | Baby steps towards reform in a region dominated by fears of Isis – and where democratic aspirations have so often been answered by violence – may still be the most that Iranians can expect. |