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Spain’s Socialist Leader Has Chance, if Improbable, to Be Premier Spain’s Socialist Leader Takes His Shot at Forming a Government
(about 13 hours later)
MADRID — The politician whom King Felipe VI has picked to try to form Spain’s next government, after the current prime minister declined, is considered a long shot — a very long shot. MADRID — The politician whom King Felipe VI has picked to try to form Spain’s next government, after the current prime minister declined, is considered a long shot — a very long shot.
Yet this is the country that gave the world Don Quixote, and if the politician, Pedro Sánchez, the telegenic Socialist leader, succeeds, especially after facing near open rebellion in his own party, it will be considered something approaching a miracle.Yet this is the country that gave the world Don Quixote, and if the politician, Pedro Sánchez, the telegenic Socialist leader, succeeds, especially after facing near open rebellion in his own party, it will be considered something approaching a miracle.
If Mr. Sánchez falls short in a crucial vote on Wednesday, however, the country can expect a continuation of the uncertainty and paralysis that began with parliamentary elections in December that left no party dominant and underscored the fragmentation of Spanish politics.If Mr. Sánchez falls short in a crucial vote on Wednesday, however, the country can expect a continuation of the uncertainty and paralysis that began with parliamentary elections in December that left no party dominant and underscored the fragmentation of Spanish politics.
And elections will most likely be held again.And elections will most likely be held again.
“It really looks improbable that Sánchez will now make it and even if it does, it would be a very fragile deal,” said Antonio Barroso, a Spanish political analyst at Teneo Intelligence, a think tank in London.“It really looks improbable that Sánchez will now make it and even if it does, it would be a very fragile deal,” said Antonio Barroso, a Spanish political analyst at Teneo Intelligence, a think tank in London.
Still, Mr. Sánchez “managed the timing and sequence very wisely” in his talks over forming a coalition, Mr. Barroso added, putting the onus on others to justify rejecting him and prolonging the deadlock.Still, Mr. Sánchez “managed the timing and sequence very wisely” in his talks over forming a coalition, Mr. Barroso added, putting the onus on others to justify rejecting him and prolonging the deadlock.
Mr. Sánchez was given the opportunity after Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, leader of the conservative Popular Party, turned down an offer from the king to try to assemble a new government in January, acknowledging that he lacked the support.Mr. Sánchez was given the opportunity after Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, leader of the conservative Popular Party, turned down an offer from the king to try to assemble a new government in January, acknowledging that he lacked the support.
He has since been trying to form a coalition by engineering a reconciliation between rival parties, against steep odds. The alliances have seemed to shift daily, but for now, the Socialists’ most likely partner is the Catalan-based, center-right Ciudadanos, or Citizens, party.He has since been trying to form a coalition by engineering a reconciliation between rival parties, against steep odds. The alliances have seemed to shift daily, but for now, the Socialists’ most likely partner is the Catalan-based, center-right Ciudadanos, or Citizens, party.
Huge obstacles remain, however, not least that even together the two parties do not have enough votes for a majority.Huge obstacles remain, however, not least that even together the two parties do not have enough votes for a majority.
The only way they can form a government is if either Mr. Rajoy’s Popular Party or the left-wing Podemos party agrees to abstain from the vote on Wednesday. Both the Popular Party and Podemos, however, insist they will vote to block Mr. Sánchez.The only way they can form a government is if either Mr. Rajoy’s Popular Party or the left-wing Podemos party agrees to abstain from the vote on Wednesday. Both the Popular Party and Podemos, however, insist they will vote to block Mr. Sánchez.
Relations between Mr. Sánchez and Mr. Rajoy are frosty, to say the least. In the final televised debate before the December vote, Mr. Sánchez questioned Mr. Rajoy’s character, accusing the prime minister, whose party has been buffeted by scandals, of dishonesty.Relations between Mr. Sánchez and Mr. Rajoy are frosty, to say the least. In the final televised debate before the December vote, Mr. Sánchez questioned Mr. Rajoy’s character, accusing the prime minister, whose party has been buffeted by scandals, of dishonesty.
When the two men recently held a brief meeting, Mr. Rajoy appeared to snub Mr. Sánchez before the cameras, choosing the moment the Socialist leader extended his hand to button his blazer instead.When the two men recently held a brief meeting, Mr. Rajoy appeared to snub Mr. Sánchez before the cameras, choosing the moment the Socialist leader extended his hand to button his blazer instead.
Mr. Rajoy also appeared to undercut Mr. Sánchez recently when he was caught on camera on the sidelines of a European Union meeting in Brussels telling Prime Minister David Cameron of Britain that Spain would “most probably” hold new elections on June 26. In effect, he was forecasting Mr. Sánchez’s failure.Mr. Rajoy also appeared to undercut Mr. Sánchez recently when he was caught on camera on the sidelines of a European Union meeting in Brussels telling Prime Minister David Cameron of Britain that Spain would “most probably” hold new elections on June 26. In effect, he was forecasting Mr. Sánchez’s failure.
Yet Mr. Rajoy and his party run their own risks if they are seen as being obstructionist and placing their interests above those of the nation.Yet Mr. Rajoy and his party run their own risks if they are seen as being obstructionist and placing their interests above those of the nation.
A recent survey by Metroscopia showed that 71 percent of respondents believed Mr. Rajoy rejected King Felipe’s offer because of his personal and party interests rather than concerns about the nation’s welfare.A recent survey by Metroscopia showed that 71 percent of respondents believed Mr. Rajoy rejected King Felipe’s offer because of his personal and party interests rather than concerns about the nation’s welfare.
Mr. Rajoy’s prediction could still prove correct. But for now, Mr. Rajoy “seems to have forgotten that politics is about being able to set the agenda,” said José Ignacio Torreblanca, a professor of political science at the National University of Distance Education in Madrid.Mr. Rajoy’s prediction could still prove correct. But for now, Mr. Rajoy “seems to have forgotten that politics is about being able to set the agenda,” said José Ignacio Torreblanca, a professor of political science at the National University of Distance Education in Madrid.
In fact, since leapfrogging more established Socialist politicians in 2014 to become secretary general of his party, Mr. Sánchez has repeatedly benefited from infighting and the miscalculations of his rivals.In fact, since leapfrogging more established Socialist politicians in 2014 to become secretary general of his party, Mr. Sánchez has repeatedly benefited from infighting and the miscalculations of his rivals.
“The paradox is that everybody around him has kept underestimating Sánchez, seeing him as weak and inexperienced enough not to be a threat or at least somebody easy to control, which has repeatedly worked in his favor,” Professor Torreblanca said.“The paradox is that everybody around him has kept underestimating Sánchez, seeing him as weak and inexperienced enough not to be a threat or at least somebody easy to control, which has repeatedly worked in his favor,” Professor Torreblanca said.
Mr. Sánchez’s doubters have included many within his own party since a poor showing in the December election in which the Socialists got just 22 percent of the votes — half what they received in 2008, when they last won national elections.Mr. Sánchez’s doubters have included many within his own party since a poor showing in the December election in which the Socialists got just 22 percent of the votes — half what they received in 2008, when they last won national elections.
The result was only slightly ahead of Podemos, a new party that aimed to replace the Socialists as the standard-bearer of left-wing voters. Now, with an eye on its own political future, Podemos, too, has refused to join the Socialists.The result was only slightly ahead of Podemos, a new party that aimed to replace the Socialists as the standard-bearer of left-wing voters. Now, with an eye on its own political future, Podemos, too, has refused to join the Socialists.
Mr. Barroso, the political analyst, credited Mr. Sánchez with “forcing Podemos into the same corner as the Popular Party and in effect asking Podemos whether they really want to risk giving Rajoy another opportunity.”Mr. Barroso, the political analyst, credited Mr. Sánchez with “forcing Podemos into the same corner as the Popular Party and in effect asking Podemos whether they really want to risk giving Rajoy another opportunity.”
After the election, party veterans pushed for Mr. Sánchez’s ouster. Mr. Sánchez, however, turned the tables by appealing directly for grass-roots militants to support his government formation plans.After the election, party veterans pushed for Mr. Sánchez’s ouster. Mr. Sánchez, however, turned the tables by appealing directly for grass-roots militants to support his government formation plans.
“Sánchez had to regain the initiative on two fronts, internal and external, in order to survive,” said Pablo Simón, a professor of political science at Carlos III University in Madrid.“Sánchez had to regain the initiative on two fronts, internal and external, in order to survive,” said Pablo Simón, a professor of political science at Carlos III University in Madrid.
“The party barons helped internally by making the big mistake of immediately criticizing him, because that instead created a movement of solidarity around Sánchez,” Professor Simón added.“The party barons helped internally by making the big mistake of immediately criticizing him, because that instead created a movement of solidarity around Sánchez,” Professor Simón added.
Should Mr. Sánchez actually put together a government, it would be an unprecedented outcome for Spain, and mirror the result after a similarly inconclusive election late last year in neighboring Portugal.Should Mr. Sánchez actually put together a government, it would be an unprecedented outcome for Spain, and mirror the result after a similarly inconclusive election late last year in neighboring Portugal.
There, another Socialist leader, António Costa, pulled victory out the jaws of an election defeat by forming an unlikely alliance with erstwhile radical left rivals.There, another Socialist leader, António Costa, pulled victory out the jaws of an election defeat by forming an unlikely alliance with erstwhile radical left rivals.
If Mr. Sánchez fails, the king has two more months to give another opportunity to Mr. Sánchez or another party leader to form a government, before deciding that only new elections can break the impasse.If Mr. Sánchez fails, the king has two more months to give another opportunity to Mr. Sánchez or another party leader to form a government, before deciding that only new elections can break the impasse.
Yet the effort alone, Professor Torreblanca said, has helped solidify Mr. Sánchez’s party leadership and could help him lead the Socialists again in the event of new elections.Yet the effort alone, Professor Torreblanca said, has helped solidify Mr. Sánchez’s party leadership and could help him lead the Socialists again in the event of new elections.
“In December, it looked like whatever Sánchez tried to do, he would end up personally losing out,” Professor Torreblanca said. “Now, even if he fails to form a government, he isn’t going to get the blame, and he instead could be given another opportunity.”“In December, it looked like whatever Sánchez tried to do, he would end up personally losing out,” Professor Torreblanca said. “Now, even if he fails to form a government, he isn’t going to get the blame, and he instead could be given another opportunity.”