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Spain’s leadership vacuum is damaging Catalonia and Europe – it has to end Spain’s leadership vacuum is damaging Catalonia and Europe – it has to end
(6 months later)
The continued lack of a new government in Spain two months after inconclusive elections is causing concern across Europe. Mariano Rajoy, the acting president, and his People’s party (Partido Popular, or PP) failed to find any partners for a coalition – and now Pedro Sánchez, the leader of the Socialist party (PSOE), is struggling to do the same.The continued lack of a new government in Spain two months after inconclusive elections is causing concern across Europe. Mariano Rajoy, the acting president, and his People’s party (Partido Popular, or PP) failed to find any partners for a coalition – and now Pedro Sánchez, the leader of the Socialist party (PSOE), is struggling to do the same.
  
For many the main worry is the lack of stability and certainty in a major EU country still recovering from the recession, at a time when Europe faces a series of serious issues. The influx of refugees, terrorism, eurozone instability, Brexit, Syria, and Russian aggression in Ukraine – as well as the Baltics – all add the to the feeling of uncertainty.For many the main worry is the lack of stability and certainty in a major EU country still recovering from the recession, at a time when Europe faces a series of serious issues. The influx of refugees, terrorism, eurozone instability, Brexit, Syria, and Russian aggression in Ukraine – as well as the Baltics – all add the to the feeling of uncertainty.
  
For me, the main frustration is not having a government in Madrid able to engage in the negotiations Catalonia has been seeking – negotiations that are now more urgent given the parliamentary majority we have supporting an 18-month roadmap for independence. It is crucial that there is a government in Madrid secure enough to engage with Catalonia politically, rather than continue the denial and legal obstructionism of the Rajoy years.For me, the main frustration is not having a government in Madrid able to engage in the negotiations Catalonia has been seeking – negotiations that are now more urgent given the parliamentary majority we have supporting an 18-month roadmap for independence. It is crucial that there is a government in Madrid secure enough to engage with Catalonia politically, rather than continue the denial and legal obstructionism of the Rajoy years.
  
The political deadlock in Madrid has introduced a new dynamic directly linked to Catalonia. Indeed, Catalonia is a key player for achieving a stable government in Madrid. The leftwing Podemos party made a binding independence referendum a sine qua non for its agreement to join a coalition with the PSOE, which favours amending the Spanish constitution, but not a referendum in Catalonia (shocking in itself, considering the Socialists defended Catalonia’s right to self-determination during the Spanish transition to democracy).The political deadlock in Madrid has introduced a new dynamic directly linked to Catalonia. Indeed, Catalonia is a key player for achieving a stable government in Madrid. The leftwing Podemos party made a binding independence referendum a sine qua non for its agreement to join a coalition with the PSOE, which favours amending the Spanish constitution, but not a referendum in Catalonia (shocking in itself, considering the Socialists defended Catalonia’s right to self-determination during the Spanish transition to democracy).
Related: Adiós, Rajoy: Spaniards can’t stomach the stench of corruption in ruling party
In any case, these two parties do not have enough votes between them to create a government. Next the PSOE turned to the centre-right Ciudadanos party, which also wants to amend the constitution, but is firmly against a referendum. This pairing also lacks sufficient votes to make Sánchez Spain’s next president.In any case, these two parties do not have enough votes between them to create a government. Next the PSOE turned to the centre-right Ciudadanos party, which also wants to amend the constitution, but is firmly against a referendum. This pairing also lacks sufficient votes to make Sánchez Spain’s next president.
Something has to give. The options are: a three-way coalition of PSOE, Podemos and Ciudadanos, which would require a referendum for Podemos to join; or a PSOE-Podemos coalition with the 17 pro-independence Catalan MPs in the Spanish parliament, who would offer the crucial votes to either support a PSOE-led coalition – provided a referendum is guaranteed – or abstain.Something has to give. The options are: a three-way coalition of PSOE, Podemos and Ciudadanos, which would require a referendum for Podemos to join; or a PSOE-Podemos coalition with the 17 pro-independence Catalan MPs in the Spanish parliament, who would offer the crucial votes to either support a PSOE-led coalition – provided a referendum is guaranteed – or abstain.
  
This is an unprecedented political moment. Addressing the situation in Catalonia is the only available way to avoid instability in Spain for 2016. If the main Spanish political parties continue to duck the issue, they will be forced into new elections in June, and the best-case scenario would be a new government by September. Yet there is little likelihood of a more decisive result second time around – all the polls point to a similar outcome.This is an unprecedented political moment. Addressing the situation in Catalonia is the only available way to avoid instability in Spain for 2016. If the main Spanish political parties continue to duck the issue, they will be forced into new elections in June, and the best-case scenario would be a new government by September. Yet there is little likelihood of a more decisive result second time around – all the polls point to a similar outcome.
Spain’s parties must steel themselves to do the sensible thing, and treat the Catalonia issue with the seriousness it deserves. It would be much better for Spain, and the whole of Europe, if they could summon up the political courage to do so now and agree on a Catalan referendum, not six months down the track.Spain’s parties must steel themselves to do the sensible thing, and treat the Catalonia issue with the seriousness it deserves. It would be much better for Spain, and the whole of Europe, if they could summon up the political courage to do so now and agree on a Catalan referendum, not six months down the track.
We must have serious dialogue between Catalonia and the Spanish state on a referendum, on independence, and on how a separation from Spain – if that’s what the Catalan people choose – would be accomplished. This would be much better than having to continually deal with a government in denial on the issue, and using the Spanish constitutional court to throw obstacles in the way of proper democratic politics in Spain.We must have serious dialogue between Catalonia and the Spanish state on a referendum, on independence, and on how a separation from Spain – if that’s what the Catalan people choose – would be accomplished. This would be much better than having to continually deal with a government in denial on the issue, and using the Spanish constitutional court to throw obstacles in the way of proper democratic politics in Spain.
Related: Spain is having its own Game of Thrones – so settle down for a saga | Miguel-Anxo Murado
  
The injection of Catalonia into Spanish politics is long overdue. Unfortunately the PP government of the past four years has done its best to ignore us, but now finally the PSOE and Podemos are talking with our pro-independence parties. This is a step in the right direction.The injection of Catalonia into Spanish politics is long overdue. Unfortunately the PP government of the past four years has done its best to ignore us, but now finally the PSOE and Podemos are talking with our pro-independence parties. This is a step in the right direction.
The best leaders don’t set timid and selfish goals but instead set bold targets that may be harder to achieve. We Catalans are idealists, but history has also made us realists, and we will not turn back now. Unlike many independence movements we have chosen a path without violence or unrest. We will continue to conduct ourselves in a quiet but firm, democratic, transparent and peaceful manner. The situation of Catalonia, and of Spain, demands no less.The best leaders don’t set timid and selfish goals but instead set bold targets that may be harder to achieve. We Catalans are idealists, but history has also made us realists, and we will not turn back now. Unlike many independence movements we have chosen a path without violence or unrest. We will continue to conduct ourselves in a quiet but firm, democratic, transparent and peaceful manner. The situation of Catalonia, and of Spain, demands no less.
If Madrid fails to grant Catalonia a referendum, we will advance with the democratic mandate given to the pro-independence parties by the Catalan people. The roadmap we laid out prior to our own elections last September shows an 18-month timeline to prepare the laws and state institutions necessary for Catalonia to make the transition to independence with legal certainty following a referendum.If Madrid fails to grant Catalonia a referendum, we will advance with the democratic mandate given to the pro-independence parties by the Catalan people. The roadmap we laid out prior to our own elections last September shows an 18-month timeline to prepare the laws and state institutions necessary for Catalonia to make the transition to independence with legal certainty following a referendum.
We bear no ill will towards the Spanish people. Geography alone will require an independent Catalonia to work closely with Spain, and we have strong historical and cultural ties that will make us the best of neighbours.We bear no ill will towards the Spanish people. Geography alone will require an independent Catalonia to work closely with Spain, and we have strong historical and cultural ties that will make us the best of neighbours.
For now, Catalonia seeks to work together towards the referendum we have sought for so long, and the open dialogue we have so often requested of Spain.For now, Catalonia seeks to work together towards the referendum we have sought for so long, and the open dialogue we have so often requested of Spain.