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EU referendum: UK weaker outside EU, government to warn EU referendum: UK weaker outside EU, government to warn
(about 1 hour later)
The UK would be "weaker, less safe and worse off" outside the European Union, government analysis is set to conclude.The UK would be "weaker, less safe and worse off" outside the European Union, government analysis is set to conclude.
The assessment, to be published later, comes as the campaign to remain in the EU seeks to shift voters' focus to what would happen if the UK left the EU. The assessment, to be published later, comes as the campaign to remain in the EU seeks to shift voters' focus to what would happen if the UK left.
Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond said a Leave victory in the 23 June vote would see a "messy" divorce from the EU.Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond said a Leave victory in the 23 June vote would see a "messy" divorce from the EU.
Pro-exit Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith has accused ministers of producing a "dodgy dossier".Pro-exit Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith has accused ministers of producing a "dodgy dossier".
Cabinet ministers are allowed to campaign freely on either side of the debate, but the official government position is in favour of staying in a reformed EU.Cabinet ministers are allowed to campaign freely on either side of the debate, but the official government position is in favour of staying in a reformed EU.
The official government analysis of UK membership of the EU is required by law under the EU Referendum Act, which paved the way for the in-out referendum on EU membership.The official government analysis of UK membership of the EU is required by law under the EU Referendum Act, which paved the way for the in-out referendum on EU membership.
The paper looks at possible alternative arrangements for relations with the EU if the UK voted to leave, including those adopted by Norway, Switzerland and Canada, as well as the option of reverting to World Trade Organization (WTO) rules. If Britain votes to leave the EU, it will have to negotiate a new trading relationship with what would then be a 27 member organisation, to allow British firms to sell goods and services to EU countries without being hit by penalties or sparking a trade war.
The government paper is expected to say each alternative arrangement outside of the EU would carry serious risks, threatening the UK economy and hitting business with higher costs through new tariffs on UK exports. The government paper runs through examples of other countries, such as Norway, Switzerland and Canada, who have trade deals with the EU without being members - as well as the option of breaking free from the EU altogether and striking deals with individual countries through the World Trade Organisation.
Meanwhile, former Conservative Chancellor Lord Lamont has come out in favour of an EU exit, saying the vote is a "once-in-a-generation opportunity". These scenarios have been mentioned by anti-EU campaigners in the past.
Writing in the Telegraph, the peer insisted the UK could succeed economically outside of the EU, and argued that a vote to leave would give Britain control of immigration. The government paper says they each carry serious risks for business - but Leave campaigners say the analysis is flawed because it does not consider the possibility of a bespoke trade deal between the UK and the EU, with no tariffs or trade barriers.
AnalysisAnalysis
By BBC political correspondent Ross HawkinsBy BBC political correspondent Ross Hawkins
It is a central question in this referendum debate: what would be the practical, long-term consequences if Britain voted to leave the EU?It is a central question in this referendum debate: what would be the practical, long-term consequences if Britain voted to leave the EU?
An assessment from the government, whose position is to remain in the union, will highlight what pro-EU ministers consider to be flaws in the alternatives.An assessment from the government, whose position is to remain in the union, will highlight what pro-EU ministers consider to be flaws in the alternatives.
The Remain campaign wants to put pressure on its opponents to explain what they think life after membership would look like.The Remain campaign wants to put pressure on its opponents to explain what they think life after membership would look like.
Those campaigning to leave say these arguments ignore the fact the UK would negotiate its own free trade arrangement, not copy one settled by smaller economies. The EU - they argue - would need an agreement as much as Britain.Those campaigning to leave say these arguments ignore the fact the UK would negotiate its own free trade arrangement, not copy one settled by smaller economies. The EU - they argue - would need an agreement as much as Britain.
The government document will say Norway and Switzerland's trading arrangements outside the EU require them to make financial contributions, accept the EU principle of free movement of people and be subject to other EU laws. Iain Duncan Smith - one of five cabinet ministers campaigning in favour of a vote to leave the EU - said: "The truth is, we won't copy any other country's deal.
Meanwhile, Switzerland and Canada's arrangements provide only limited access to the single market, it will add.
Mr Hammond said analysis showed that "every alternative to remaining in a reformed EU would leave Britain weaker, less safe and worse off".
Speaking on BBC Breakfast, he added: "This is going to be a divorce, if we decide to leave, and as with any divorce it is likely to get messy. It will take a long time to sort out the disentanglement of our affairs."
He said British businesses, consumers and jobs would then be "left in limbo", and called on pro-exit campaigners to set-out a "model" for how the UK would negotiate with the EU in the event of it leaving the union.
But Mr Duncan Smith - one of five cabinet ministers campaigning in favour of a vote to leave the EU - said the government was "in denial" about the risk of remaining a member.
"This dodgy dossier won't fool anyone," he said, adding that the "real uncertainty is the future of the EU project.
"The truth is, we won't copy any other country's deal.
"We will have a settlement on our own terms - and one that will return control of our borders, and money to Britain. That's the safer choice.""We will have a settlement on our own terms - and one that will return control of our borders, and money to Britain. That's the safer choice."
He said the government was "in denial" about the risk of remaining a member of the EU.
"This dodgy dossier won't fool anyone," he said, adding that the "real uncertainty is the future of the EU project".
But his cabinet colleague, Philip Hammond, said analysis showed that "every alternative to remaining in a reformed EU would leave Britain weaker, less safe and worse off".
Speaking on BBC Breakfast, the foreign secretary added: "This is going to be a divorce, if we decide to leave, and as with any divorce it is likely to get messy. It will take a long time to sort out the disentanglement of our affairs."
He said British businesses, consumers and jobs would then be "left in limbo", and called on pro-exit campaigners to set-out a "model" for how the UK would negotiate with the EU in the event of it leaving the union.
Gerard Lyons, of investment bank Black Rock and chief economic adviser to London mayor and Leave campaigner Boris Johnson, said it would be "a shock for both sides" if Britain left but it would be in the EU's interest to reach a trade deal with the UK as it was one of the EU's biggest export markets.
Meanwhile, Lord Lamont has become the latest Conservative grandee to nail his colours to one side or other of the EU debate.
Lord Lamont, who was chancellor in the early 1990s when Britain crashed out of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, is calling for Britain to leave, arguing in the Daily Telegraph that the country could succeed economically and would regain control of immigration.
The government document is expected to say Norway and Switzerland's trading arrangements outside the EU require them to make financial contributions, accept the EU principle of free movement of people and be subject to other EU laws.
Meanwhile, Switzerland and Canada's arrangements provide only limited access to the single market, it will add.