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| Donald Trump releases his healthcare plan – campaign live | Donald Trump releases his healthcare plan – campaign live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 2.37am GMT | |
| 02:37 | |
| The Department of Justice has granted immunity to a State Department employee who worked on former secretary of state Hillary Clinton’s private email server, according to the Washington Post, which quoted an official with the DOJ in saying that the employee had agreed to work in cooperation with the FBI in exchange for immunity from criminal charges. | |
| The FBI is currently conducting a criminal investigation into the possible mishandling of classified information on Clinton’s server, which the employee, Bryan Pagliano, had set up in the then-secretary of state’s New York home in 2009. | |
| Although the source told the Washington Post that the FBI will likely interview Clinton and her staff about the server and its content, the DOJ has not moved to convene a grand jury to subpoena testimony or documents from the presidential candidate. | |
| 2.31am GMT | |
| 02:31 | |
| Scott Bixby | |
| Donald Trump Jr., the son of the eponymous Republican billionaire frontrunner, is disavowing a radio interview he had with radio host James Edwards, the white nationalist host of a show called Political Cesspool who has said that slavery is the “greatest thing to have ever happened” to African Americans. | |
| Edwards has been touting an “exclusive” 20-minute interview with the candidate’s son all week. | |
| In an interview with Bloomberg Politics, Trump Jr. said that Edwards has interloped on another radio interview he had been conducting with a different host. “He was brought into the interview without my knowledge,” Trump Jr. said. “Had I known, I would have obviously never done an interview with him.” | |
| Trump Jr.’s father has been roundly criticized this week for waffling on disavowing the support of David Duke, a former grand wizard of the Ku Klux Klan. | |
| 2.02am GMT | 2.02am GMT |
| 02:02 | 02:02 |
| Scott Bixby | Scott Bixby |
| Donald Trump may have alienated Paul Ryan, the speaker of the House of Representatives, by saying that if they don’t get along “he’s going to have to pay a big price,” but in a new video dropped on Facebook, the candidate is taking a wider tack. | Donald Trump may have alienated Paul Ryan, the speaker of the House of Representatives, by saying that if they don’t get along “he’s going to have to pay a big price,” but in a new video dropped on Facebook, the candidate is taking a wider tack. |
| “I would love to see the Republican party and everyone get together and unify. When we unify there is nobody who is going to beat us!” Trump wrote below the video, in which he says that dealing with Congress will entail physically corralling the legislative body. | “I would love to see the Republican party and everyone get together and unify. When we unify there is nobody who is going to beat us!” Trump wrote below the video, in which he says that dealing with Congress will entail physically corralling the legislative body. |
| “You have to get ‘em all into a room, you have to say, ‘fellas, let’s go, it’s for the good of the people.’ We wanna take care of the people - it’s been a long time, it’s been decades since this has happened.” | “You have to get ‘em all into a room, you have to say, ‘fellas, let’s go, it’s for the good of the people.’ We wanna take care of the people - it’s been a long time, it’s been decades since this has happened.” |
| “We’re going to take care of the people,” Trump elaborates. “We’re going to get things done, we’re gonna reduce your taxes, we’re going to get the economy going, and, of course, military and all of the other things.” | “We’re going to take care of the people,” Trump elaborates. “We’re going to get things done, we’re gonna reduce your taxes, we’re going to get the economy going, and, of course, military and all of the other things.” |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 2.04am GMT | at 2.04am GMT |
| 1.44am GMT | 1.44am GMT |
| 01:44 | 01:44 |
| “Donald Trump is not fit to be president of the United States.” | “Donald Trump is not fit to be president of the United States.” |
| The editorial board of the Los Angeles Times wasted no time in crafting the lede of its latest staff editorial, joining the growing chorus of newspapers in denouncing the billionaire frontrunner for the Republican nomination and his campaign for the presidency. | The editorial board of the Los Angeles Times wasted no time in crafting the lede of its latest staff editorial, joining the growing chorus of newspapers in denouncing the billionaire frontrunner for the Republican nomination and his campaign for the presidency. |
| Much of the editorial covers now-familiar territory - Trump mocked a disabled person at a campaign rally, Trump vowed to reinstate waterboarding, Trump intends to deport 11 million people, Trump would bar all Muslims from entering the United States until further notice. | Much of the editorial covers now-familiar territory - Trump mocked a disabled person at a campaign rally, Trump vowed to reinstate waterboarding, Trump intends to deport 11 million people, Trump would bar all Muslims from entering the United States until further notice. |
| But the kicker graph takes a wider look at Trump’s candidacy: | But the kicker graph takes a wider look at Trump’s candidacy: |
| “Trump’s popularity may simply be the product of a toxic brew of a polarized two-party system and nihilistic tactics on the campaign trail and Capitol Hill (such as shutting down the government and threatening to default on U.S. debts) that, either by design or in effect, have convinced many Americans that their government is irreparably broken and corrupt. But Trump isn’t the answer - he’s just a cynical manipulator playing on the very real frustrations of voters tired of a government that takes big, difficult problems and makes them intractable. Those voters still have time to choose a better standard-bearer.” | “Trump’s popularity may simply be the product of a toxic brew of a polarized two-party system and nihilistic tactics on the campaign trail and Capitol Hill (such as shutting down the government and threatening to default on U.S. debts) that, either by design or in effect, have convinced many Americans that their government is irreparably broken and corrupt. But Trump isn’t the answer - he’s just a cynical manipulator playing on the very real frustrations of voters tired of a government that takes big, difficult problems and makes them intractable. Those voters still have time to choose a better standard-bearer.” |
| 1.36am GMT | 1.36am GMT |
| 01:36 | 01:36 |
| Donald Trump releases his health care plan | Donald Trump releases his health care plan |
| Scott Bixby | Scott Bixby |
| Billionaire Republican frontrunner Donald Trump has released his health care platform, which the candidate claims “will broaden healthcare access, make healthcare more affordable and improve the quality of the care available to all Americans.” | Billionaire Republican frontrunner Donald Trump has released his health care platform, which the candidate claims “will broaden healthcare access, make healthcare more affordable and improve the quality of the care available to all Americans.” |
| In a seven-point list of initiatives, Trump calls for, in order: the repeal of the Affordable Care Act, more popularly known as Obamacare, as well as the individual mandate that requires Americans to purchase health insurance; allow the sale of insurance across state lines by repealing the McCarran–Ferguson Act; allow individuals to fully deduct health insurance premium payments from their taxes, as businesses can; allow all individuals to use Health Savings Accounts, rather than just those with high-deductible health plan; require “price transparency” from healthcare providers, including doctors, clinics and hospitals; block-grant Medicaid to the states, decentralizing the social welfare program from federal control; and “remove barriers to entry into free markets for drug providers that offer safe, reliable and cheaper products,” weakening control of the pharmaceutical industry and the FDA over drug testing, production and approval. | In a seven-point list of initiatives, Trump calls for, in order: the repeal of the Affordable Care Act, more popularly known as Obamacare, as well as the individual mandate that requires Americans to purchase health insurance; allow the sale of insurance across state lines by repealing the McCarran–Ferguson Act; allow individuals to fully deduct health insurance premium payments from their taxes, as businesses can; allow all individuals to use Health Savings Accounts, rather than just those with high-deductible health plan; require “price transparency” from healthcare providers, including doctors, clinics and hospitals; block-grant Medicaid to the states, decentralizing the social welfare program from federal control; and “remove barriers to entry into free markets for drug providers that offer safe, reliable and cheaper products,” weakening control of the pharmaceutical industry and the FDA over drug testing, production and approval. |
| “The reforms outlined above will lower healthcare costs for all Americans,” Trump says in a statement released by his campaign, alluding to “other reforms that might be considered if they serve to lower costs, remove uncertainty and provide financial security for all Americans.” | “The reforms outlined above will lower healthcare costs for all Americans,” Trump says in a statement released by his campaign, alluding to “other reforms that might be considered if they serve to lower costs, remove uncertainty and provide financial security for all Americans.” |
| Trump also points to other areas, both administrative and legislative, wherein a Trump administration would move to lower health care costs and expand access to insurance and care. “Enforcing immigration laws, eliminating fraud and waste and energizing our economy will relieve the economic pressures felt by every American,” Trump said, calling his immigration proposals part of “the moral responsibility of a nation’s government.” | Trump also points to other areas, both administrative and legislative, wherein a Trump administration would move to lower health care costs and expand access to insurance and care. “Enforcing immigration laws, eliminating fraud and waste and energizing our economy will relieve the economic pressures felt by every American,” Trump said, calling his immigration proposals part of “the moral responsibility of a nation’s government.” |
| “Providing healthcare to illegal immigrants costs us some $11 billion annually,” Trump writes. “If we were to simply enforce the current immigration laws and restrict the unbridled granting of visas to this country, we could relieve healthcare cost pressures on state and local governments.” | “Providing healthcare to illegal immigrants costs us some $11 billion annually,” Trump writes. “If we were to simply enforce the current immigration laws and restrict the unbridled granting of visas to this country, we could relieve healthcare cost pressures on state and local governments.” |
| “To reform healthcare in America, we need a president who has the leadership skills, will and courage to engage the American people and convince Congress to do what is best for the country,” Trump concludes. “These straightforward reforms, along with many others I have proposed throughout my campaign, will ensure that together we will Make America Great Again. | “To reform healthcare in America, we need a president who has the leadership skills, will and courage to engage the American people and convince Congress to do what is best for the country,” Trump concludes. “These straightforward reforms, along with many others I have proposed throughout my campaign, will ensure that together we will Make America Great Again. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 1.36am GMT | at 1.36am GMT |
| 12.50am GMT | 12.50am GMT |
| 00:50 | 00:50 |
| Lauren Gambino | Lauren Gambino |
| An ebullient Hillary Clinton declared Her sting of Super Tuesday victories “one of the history books,” during a rally in NYC on Wednesday. | An ebullient Hillary Clinton declared Her sting of Super Tuesday victories “one of the history books,” during a rally in NYC on Wednesday. |
| Though Clinton stopped short of claiming the Democratic nomination, it was clear her focus was the general election battle ahead. | Though Clinton stopped short of claiming the Democratic nomination, it was clear her focus was the general election battle ahead. |
| “If we do what we must in this election to bring out a positive message of what we can do together, who we stand for and what we stand for, we will go into the November election with the wind at our back,” Clinton told the crowd, tens of thousands deep, at the Javits Center in New York. “And if I’m so fortunate to be your president, we will work together to make it true.” | “If we do what we must in this election to bring out a positive message of what we can do together, who we stand for and what we stand for, we will go into the November election with the wind at our back,” Clinton told the crowd, tens of thousands deep, at the Javits Center in New York. “And if I’m so fortunate to be your president, we will work together to make it true.” |
| During her remarks, Clinton reprised her call for more “love and kindness”, and promising to “wage a campaign that is about the future”. | During her remarks, Clinton reprised her call for more “love and kindness”, and promising to “wage a campaign that is about the future”. |
| Later this week, Clinton said she will lay out a jobs agenda during a stop in Detroit, one of the cities hit hardest by the decline of the auto industry. | Later this week, Clinton said she will lay out a jobs agenda during a stop in Detroit, one of the cities hit hardest by the decline of the auto industry. |
| “Don’t let anybody ever tell you we can’t make things in America anymore,” she said. She will also travel to Flint, Michigan, for CNN’s Democratic Debate on Sunday. Michigan votes on Tuesday. | “Don’t let anybody ever tell you we can’t make things in America anymore,” she said. She will also travel to Flint, Michigan, for CNN’s Democratic Debate on Sunday. Michigan votes on Tuesday. |
| Clinton’s remarks were preceded by a string of introduction from local union leaders and members, as well as from NYC mayor Bill de Blasio and New York Governor Andrew Cuomo. The speakers focused on general election, one in which Clinton is the inexorable nominee. One union representative painted the presidential race as a choice between “hate and hope”. | Clinton’s remarks were preceded by a string of introduction from local union leaders and members, as well as from NYC mayor Bill de Blasio and New York Governor Andrew Cuomo. The speakers focused on general election, one in which Clinton is the inexorable nominee. One union representative painted the presidential race as a choice between “hate and hope”. |
| Though Clinton made oblique references to Donald Trump, she let her surrogates call him out by name. Governor Cuomo mimicked Trump, a constituent of his, during his introduction. | Though Clinton made oblique references to Donald Trump, she let her surrogates call him out by name. Governor Cuomo mimicked Trump, a constituent of his, during his introduction. |
| “Don’t worry, the wall is a beautiful wall!” he said, changing his voice to imitate Trump. | “Don’t worry, the wall is a beautiful wall!” he said, changing his voice to imitate Trump. |
| The New York Democratic primary, with 247 delegates up for grabs, will be held on 19 April. The few polls that have been done here show Clinton, who served as the state’s senator for eight years, maintaining a sizable lead over Sanders. | The New York Democratic primary, with 247 delegates up for grabs, will be held on 19 April. The few polls that have been done here show Clinton, who served as the state’s senator for eight years, maintaining a sizable lead over Sanders. |
| 12.15am GMT | 12.15am GMT |
| 00:15 | 00:15 |
| Sabrina Siddiqui | Sabrina Siddiqui |
| Marco Rubio arrived at the West Miami city commission at roughly 9:30 a.m. this morning to cast his ballot for the Florida primary’s early voting. Wearing a suit with light blue collar shirt and red tie, Rubio was accompanied by his wife Jeanette, who also voted. | Marco Rubio arrived at the West Miami city commission at roughly 9:30 a.m. this morning to cast his ballot for the Florida primary’s early voting. Wearing a suit with light blue collar shirt and red tie, Rubio was accompanied by his wife Jeanette, who also voted. |
| Waiting for Rubio was Rebeca Sosa, his longtime friend who was the local mayor when he ran for the West Miami city commission in 1998. He greeted her with a big hug and held her hand while exchanging a few words that were inaudible to the pool. | Waiting for Rubio was Rebeca Sosa, his longtime friend who was the local mayor when he ran for the West Miami city commission in 1998. He greeted her with a big hug and held her hand while exchanging a few words that were inaudible to the pool. |
| Rubio did not say anything to the pool as he walked into the polling center, and the pool was not allowed to go inside. The station manager aggressively kept the press at bay, saying there were other voters who needed to get in and out of the building in peace. The pool watched from the doorway and could not see Rubio actually cast his ballot - although as he was filling out his paperwork it became clear he did not have his ID and a staffer rushed Rubio’s wallet over to him to quickly resolve the matter. | Rubio did not say anything to the pool as he walked into the polling center, and the pool was not allowed to go inside. The station manager aggressively kept the press at bay, saying there were other voters who needed to get in and out of the building in peace. The pool watched from the doorway and could not see Rubio actually cast his ballot - although as he was filling out his paperwork it became clear he did not have his ID and a staffer rushed Rubio’s wallet over to him to quickly resolve the matter. |
| As he returned to his car, Rubio stopped to field two quick questions from local cameras. | As he returned to his car, Rubio stopped to field two quick questions from local cameras. |
| Q: Who’d you vote for? | Q: Who’d you vote for? |
| “I voted for Marco Rubio - what an incredible honor to be able to vote for myself today here in the place where I started my career in West Miami. Literally standing outside in the sidewalk is where my career began in elected office so it’s an incredible privilege and honor to be able to vote for myself for president just a few blocks from where I grew up.” | “I voted for Marco Rubio - what an incredible honor to be able to vote for myself today here in the place where I started my career in West Miami. Literally standing outside in the sidewalk is where my career began in elected office so it’s an incredible privilege and honor to be able to vote for myself for president just a few blocks from where I grew up.” |
| With that, Rubio was ushered to his car after a stop that lasted a total of 15 minutes. | With that, Rubio was ushered to his car after a stop that lasted a total of 15 minutes. |
| 10.55pm GMT | 10.55pm GMT |
| 22:55 | 22:55 |
| Scott Bixby | Scott Bixby |
| Ohio governor John Kasich has picked up a crucial endorsement from Gregory Caruso. | Ohio governor John Kasich has picked up a crucial endorsement from Gregory Caruso. |
| You know - #HotDebateGuy. | You know - #HotDebateGuy. |
| The real winner of tonight's debate: the beefcake over Jake Tapper's shoulder. pic.twitter.com/K8uY7UtAk4 | The real winner of tonight's debate: the beefcake over Jake Tapper's shoulder. pic.twitter.com/K8uY7UtAk4 |
| Caruso became a social media sensation after being seated over Jake Tapper’s right shoulder during a presidential debate on CNN, largely due to his hotness. At the time, the self-described fan of George W. Bush and Ronald Reagan said that he was undecided in the Republican presidential contest, but the rise of Donald Trump as the party’s frontrunner has pushed Caruso into Kasich’s corner. | Caruso became a social media sensation after being seated over Jake Tapper’s right shoulder during a presidential debate on CNN, largely due to his hotness. At the time, the self-described fan of George W. Bush and Ronald Reagan said that he was undecided in the Republican presidential contest, but the rise of Donald Trump as the party’s frontrunner has pushed Caruso into Kasich’s corner. |
| “John Kasich has proven, time and time again, that he is the only true presidential candidate among the Republican nominees,” Caruso writes for Time, which has taken to publishing the endorsements of whomever catches the Internet’s fancy for a fleeting moment. “The Ohio governor is the most experienced, and he is the only adult in the pack. He also has the best chance to beat Hillary Clinton.” | “John Kasich has proven, time and time again, that he is the only true presidential candidate among the Republican nominees,” Caruso writes for Time, which has taken to publishing the endorsements of whomever catches the Internet’s fancy for a fleeting moment. “The Ohio governor is the most experienced, and he is the only adult in the pack. He also has the best chance to beat Hillary Clinton.” |
| After calling Trump “a man of empty promises” and lambasting Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz for following in his vulgarian footsteps, Caruso calls Kasich the candidate who “represents the party of the future.” | After calling Trump “a man of empty promises” and lambasting Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz for following in his vulgarian footsteps, Caruso calls Kasich the candidate who “represents the party of the future.” |
| The Kasich campaign did not respond to a request for comment. Caruso did not respond to our Facebook friend request. | The Kasich campaign did not respond to a request for comment. Caruso did not respond to our Facebook friend request. |
| 10.34pm GMT | 10.34pm GMT |
| 22:34 | 22:34 |
| Richard Wolffe | Richard Wolffe |
| It’s time for some cold hard truths in this presidential election, writes the Guardian’s Richard Wolffe. | It’s time for some cold hard truths in this presidential election, writes the Guardian’s Richard Wolffe. |
| Here’s an ice cold one: winning a landslide victory in the mighty state of Vermont is not a foundation for success. Especially if Vermont has been your home since the Jurassic age of politics. | Here’s an ice cold one: winning a landslide victory in the mighty state of Vermont is not a foundation for success. Especially if Vermont has been your home since the Jurassic age of politics. |
| Here’s another: if you hold a victory rally before most of the states have been called, you’re not fooling anyone. When your victorious supporters have emptied the hall before the TV pundits have barely warmed up, you’re actually throwing a consolation party. | Here’s another: if you hold a victory rally before most of the states have been called, you’re not fooling anyone. When your victorious supporters have emptied the hall before the TV pundits have barely warmed up, you’re actually throwing a consolation party. |
| Bernie Sanders has built his impressively insurgent campaign on the premise that he’s a truth-teller. On Tuesday night, he repeated the commonplace belief that climate change is not a hoax (as many Republicans argue), and that the science is clear. On that basis, it’s only a matter of time before Sanders stops perpetuating his own hoax and looks at the data of the delegate count. | Bernie Sanders has built his impressively insurgent campaign on the premise that he’s a truth-teller. On Tuesday night, he repeated the commonplace belief that climate change is not a hoax (as many Republicans argue), and that the science is clear. On that basis, it’s only a matter of time before Sanders stops perpetuating his own hoax and looks at the data of the delegate count. |
| Related: The cold, hard truth: it's game over for Bernie Sanders | Richard Wolffe | Related: The cold, hard truth: it's game over for Bernie Sanders | Richard Wolffe |
| 10.10pm GMT | 10.10pm GMT |
| 22:10 | 22:10 |
| Tom Dart | Tom Dart |
| Texas senator Ted Cruz may have taken the state on Super Tuesday, but Trump’s wins along the Texan border prove he hasn’t been shunned by Latinos despite controversial immigration plan, writes the Guardian’s Tom Dart in Laredo, Texas: | Texas senator Ted Cruz may have taken the state on Super Tuesday, but Trump’s wins along the Texan border prove he hasn’t been shunned by Latinos despite controversial immigration plan, writes the Guardian’s Tom Dart in Laredo, Texas: |
| A candidate who has described Mexicans as rapists and criminals and whose core immigration plan is to make Mexico pay for a giant wall ought not to prosper on the southern border. Yet Donald Trump was embraced on Tuesday by voters in America’s most Hispanic city. | A candidate who has described Mexicans as rapists and criminals and whose core immigration plan is to make Mexico pay for a giant wall ought not to prosper on the southern border. Yet Donald Trump was embraced on Tuesday by voters in America’s most Hispanic city. |
| Trump won almost 35% of the Republican primary vote in Webb County, where Laredo is the county seat, comfortably ahead of Marco Rubio (28.4%) and Ted Cruz (28.2%), the Hispanic senator from Texas who finished first in the state overall. | Trump won almost 35% of the Republican primary vote in Webb County, where Laredo is the county seat, comfortably ahead of Marco Rubio (28.4%) and Ted Cruz (28.2%), the Hispanic senator from Texas who finished first in the state overall. |
| Despite the limited GOP voter pool, it is notable – and jarring – that Trump should not only triumph here but generally perform better in border counties than in the Texas interior, where Cruz was in command. After some small-scale polling at the Nevada caucuses, Tuesday’s outcome provided harder evidence that Trump has not been shunned by conservative Latinos. He may even have inspired them into action: he won more votes in Webb County than were cast in its primary in total in 2012. | Despite the limited GOP voter pool, it is notable – and jarring – that Trump should not only triumph here but generally perform better in border counties than in the Texas interior, where Cruz was in command. After some small-scale polling at the Nevada caucuses, Tuesday’s outcome provided harder evidence that Trump has not been shunned by conservative Latinos. He may even have inspired them into action: he won more votes in Webb County than were cast in its primary in total in 2012. |
| Related: Trump dominates in Texas border town where proposed wall would be built | Related: Trump dominates in Texas border town where proposed wall would be built |
| 9.46pm GMT | 9.46pm GMT |
| 21:46 | 21:46 |
| Dan Roberts | Dan Roberts |
| Clinton’s Super Tuesday successes – notably with African Americans in the south – risk reducing Vermont senator Bernie Sanders’ presidential run to a protest movement, reports the Guardian’s Dan Roberts from Burlington, Vermont: | Clinton’s Super Tuesday successes – notably with African Americans in the south – risk reducing Vermont senator Bernie Sanders’ presidential run to a protest movement, reports the Guardian’s Dan Roberts from Burlington, Vermont: |
| Bernie Sanders came down to earth with a bump. In fact, the elderly 737 charter jet that has carried him – and the hopes of a generation of liberal Americans – through a surprisingly gripping Democratic nomination race hit the tarmac on Saturday night with a sickening crunch. | Bernie Sanders came down to earth with a bump. In fact, the elderly 737 charter jet that has carried him – and the hopes of a generation of liberal Americans – through a surprisingly gripping Democratic nomination race hit the tarmac on Saturday night with a sickening crunch. |
| Hard landings are as common in politics as aviation. “Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose. Tonight, we lost,” the senator told reporters at the foot of the aircraft steps in Minnesota shortly after learning of his heavy defeat to Hillary Clinton in the South Carolina primary that night. | Hard landings are as common in politics as aviation. “Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose. Tonight, we lost,” the senator told reporters at the foot of the aircraft steps in Minnesota shortly after learning of his heavy defeat to Hillary Clinton in the South Carolina primary that night. |
| Yet the scale of that loss – a 74-to-26-point drubbing that featured double the margin by which Sanders had beaten Clinton in New Hampshire on 9 February – left his campaign temporarily speechless. | Yet the scale of that loss – a 74-to-26-point drubbing that featured double the margin by which Sanders had beaten Clinton in New Hampshire on 9 February – left his campaign temporarily speechless. |
| Related: After southern setbacks can Bernie Sanders' revolution just be white? | Related: After southern setbacks can Bernie Sanders' revolution just be white? |
| 9.28pm GMT | 9.28pm GMT |
| 21:28 | 21:28 |
| Scott Bixby | Scott Bixby |
| Hillary Clinton held off an insurgent Bernie Sanders in last night’s Super Tuesday nominating contests, but how did she perform against... Hillary Clinton? | Hillary Clinton held off an insurgent Bernie Sanders in last night’s Super Tuesday nominating contests, but how did she perform against... Hillary Clinton? |
| The data geniuses here at the Guardian have taken a peek at how the former secretary of state performed in comparison to her own campaign eight years ago - and like Virginia Slims, she’s come a long way, baby. | The data geniuses here at the Guardian have taken a peek at how the former secretary of state performed in comparison to her own campaign eight years ago - and like Virginia Slims, she’s come a long way, baby. |
| With the noted exception of Sanders’ native Vermont and adjacent Massachusetts, Clinton performed much better in 2016 than she did in 2008 in some of the most crucial Super Tuesday states, particularly in Georgia, where the one-time New York senator did not have to compete with Barack Obama for the support of the state’s large African-American population. | With the noted exception of Sanders’ native Vermont and adjacent Massachusetts, Clinton performed much better in 2016 than she did in 2008 in some of the most crucial Super Tuesday states, particularly in Georgia, where the one-time New York senator did not have to compete with Barack Obama for the support of the state’s large African-American population. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 10.18pm GMT | at 10.18pm GMT |
| 9.05pm GMT | 9.05pm GMT |
| 21:05 | 21:05 |
| Where will Ben Carson's supporters go now? | Where will Ben Carson's supporters go now? |
| Mona Chalabi | Mona Chalabi |
| Ben Carson’s slightly confusing message to his supporters has been interpreted by many as a signal from the retired neurosurgeon that he will soon drop out of the race. | Ben Carson’s slightly confusing message to his supporters has been interpreted by many as a signal from the retired neurosurgeon that he will soon drop out of the race. |
| At a national level, Carson isn’t quite so irrelevant as his detractors made him out to be - polling averages put him at 9%, slightly ahead of John Kasich and less than 10 percentage points behind Marco Rubio. The problem for Carson is geography; there aren’t any states where the candidate’s support is concentrated enough to boost his delegate numbers (which currently stand at a paltry 8 compared to Trump’s 319). | At a national level, Carson isn’t quite so irrelevant as his detractors made him out to be - polling averages put him at 9%, slightly ahead of John Kasich and less than 10 percentage points behind Marco Rubio. The problem for Carson is geography; there aren’t any states where the candidate’s support is concentrated enough to boost his delegate numbers (which currently stand at a paltry 8 compared to Trump’s 319). |
| The important question going forward is what Carson supporters will do if he has dropped out. It’s hard to know because very few polls ask respondents about their second-choice candidates, and those that do rarely have cross tabs to really understand where voters might shift from and to. But they still offer some interesting clues. | The important question going forward is what Carson supporters will do if he has dropped out. It’s hard to know because very few polls ask respondents about their second-choice candidates, and those that do rarely have cross tabs to really understand where voters might shift from and to. But they still offer some interesting clues. |
| The most recent poll to ask Republican voters about their second choices was conducted by Fox News between 15 and 17 February 2016. It found that only 11% of Republicans chose Donald Trump as their second choice (which supports various theories that Trump is reaching his ceiling of support) while Rubio was second choice for 27% of voters and Ted Cruz was the plan B of 20%. Given that Carson’s support base is wealthier and more likely to have a college degree, it’s much more likely that they’ll shift towards Rubio or possibly even Cruz than becoming Trump voters. Still though, the fact remains that there aren’t enough Carson supporters to make an immediate difference to either the Cruz or Rubio campaigns. | The most recent poll to ask Republican voters about their second choices was conducted by Fox News between 15 and 17 February 2016. It found that only 11% of Republicans chose Donald Trump as their second choice (which supports various theories that Trump is reaching his ceiling of support) while Rubio was second choice for 27% of voters and Ted Cruz was the plan B of 20%. Given that Carson’s support base is wealthier and more likely to have a college degree, it’s much more likely that they’ll shift towards Rubio or possibly even Cruz than becoming Trump voters. Still though, the fact remains that there aren’t enough Carson supporters to make an immediate difference to either the Cruz or Rubio campaigns. |
| 8.41pm GMT | 8.41pm GMT |
| 20:41 | 20:41 |
| Scott Bixby | Scott Bixby |
| We’re old enough to remember when Ben Carson was the cause of a massive candidate pile-up on a debate stage in New Hampshire. | We’re old enough to remember when Ben Carson was the cause of a massive candidate pile-up on a debate stage in New Hampshire. |
| Ben Carson was the first to falter, resulting in him awkwardly lingering at the side of the set, where he was soon joined by Donald Trump. Meanwhile, John Kasich was nearly forgotten. | Ben Carson was the first to falter, resulting in him awkwardly lingering at the side of the set, where he was soon joined by Donald Trump. Meanwhile, John Kasich was nearly forgotten. |
| 8.23pm GMT | 8.23pm GMT |
| 20:23 | 20:23 |
| Mona Chalabi | Mona Chalabi |
| Tuesday was anything but super for Marco Rubio. Although the Florida senator won his first state in the Minnesota caucus, just 38 delegates were available there - and in more important states like Alabama and Texas, Rubio failed to meet the 20% threshold he needed to get any delegates at all. | Tuesday was anything but super for Marco Rubio. Although the Florida senator won his first state in the Minnesota caucus, just 38 delegates were available there - and in more important states like Alabama and Texas, Rubio failed to meet the 20% threshold he needed to get any delegates at all. |
| So, is it all over for Rubio? Probably. | So, is it all over for Rubio? Probably. |
| To get the 1,237 delegates needed to win the Republican nomination, Rubio would need to average around 50% in the remaining primaries. Polling suggests he’s nowhere near that. Take Florida for example where 99 delegates are available in a winner-takes-all voting system: Real Clear Politics polling averages currently suggest that Trump has a 20 percentage point lead on Rubio in Florida. It’s a similar story in Ohio where 66 delegates are available and where polls show Rubio getting just 13% of support. | To get the 1,237 delegates needed to win the Republican nomination, Rubio would need to average around 50% in the remaining primaries. Polling suggests he’s nowhere near that. Take Florida for example where 99 delegates are available in a winner-takes-all voting system: Real Clear Politics polling averages currently suggest that Trump has a 20 percentage point lead on Rubio in Florida. It’s a similar story in Ohio where 66 delegates are available and where polls show Rubio getting just 13% of support. |
| Technically, Rubio’s not done yet - but his chances of being nominee are now so slim you need a calculator and pair of binoculars to see them. | Technically, Rubio’s not done yet - but his chances of being nominee are now so slim you need a calculator and pair of binoculars to see them. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 2.00am GMT | at 2.00am GMT |