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| Donald Tusk's migration magic trick undermined by flawed logic | Donald Tusk's migration magic trick undermined by flawed logic |
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| “With that,” said Donald Tusk, president of the European council, with all the confidence of a magician at a circus, “we will close the western Balkans route.” It is a hubristic claim – but one that nevertheless reflects the new hardline agenda that much of Europe’s top brass hopes to push through during the migration summit between European and Turkish leaders. | |
| Related: EU migration summit stalls as Turkey ups demands - live | Related: EU migration summit stalls as Turkey ups demands - live |
| As if by magic, Tusk and his allies seek to end the European refugee crisis in two clean movements. First, by rubber-stamping the closure of the Macedonian-Greek border, where hundreds of thousands of refugees have crossed in the past year in their march towards northern Europe. Second, by strong-arming Turkey into readmitting most, if not all, of those who continue to land on the Greek islands in their thousands each day. | As if by magic, Tusk and his allies seek to end the European refugee crisis in two clean movements. First, by rubber-stamping the closure of the Macedonian-Greek border, where hundreds of thousands of refugees have crossed in the past year in their march towards northern Europe. Second, by strong-arming Turkey into readmitting most, if not all, of those who continue to land on the Greek islands in their thousands each day. |
| Tusk’s logic is straightforward. If the Macedonian border can be shut, then the crisis can be contained in Greece. And if refugees can be returned to Turkey, then the damage wrought on cash-strapped Greece will in turn become manageable. Even if Tusk’s plan has obvious moral implications – it risks undermining the 1951 refugee convention, which was one of the seminal human achievements of the post-Holocaust era – one can understand its practical appeal for European politicians. | Tusk’s logic is straightforward. If the Macedonian border can be shut, then the crisis can be contained in Greece. And if refugees can be returned to Turkey, then the damage wrought on cash-strapped Greece will in turn become manageable. Even if Tusk’s plan has obvious moral implications – it risks undermining the 1951 refugee convention, which was one of the seminal human achievements of the post-Holocaust era – one can understand its practical appeal for European politicians. |
| But as has become familiar throughout this migration crisis, the logic of Europe’s leadership does not acknowledge the reality on the ground. For a start, Turkey’s compliance is not a foregone conclusion. The Turkish government will be less keen on re-accepting those who make the journey by boat if Europe does not, as a quid pro quo, formally resettle significant numbers of the 2.5 million Syrian refugees currently on Turkish soil. | But as has become familiar throughout this migration crisis, the logic of Europe’s leadership does not acknowledge the reality on the ground. For a start, Turkey’s compliance is not a foregone conclusion. The Turkish government will be less keen on re-accepting those who make the journey by boat if Europe does not, as a quid pro quo, formally resettle significant numbers of the 2.5 million Syrian refugees currently on Turkish soil. |
| And even if such a formal resettlement scheme emerges, it may take months before Turkey is logistically able to reaccept large numbers of people. Turkey must in turn arrange readmission agreements with the countries where the migrants come from – and this kind of wrangling will take time. | And even if such a formal resettlement scheme emerges, it may take months before Turkey is logistically able to reaccept large numbers of people. Turkey must in turn arrange readmission agreements with the countries where the migrants come from – and this kind of wrangling will take time. |
| In the interim, increasing numbers will continue to reach Greece. If Tusk’s Macedonian plan works, then Greece faces a dystopian nightmare; it will become a cage for hundreds of thousands of foreigners, with local authorities lacking the resources needed to house or process them. | In the interim, increasing numbers will continue to reach Greece. If Tusk’s Macedonian plan works, then Greece faces a dystopian nightmare; it will become a cage for hundreds of thousands of foreigners, with local authorities lacking the resources needed to house or process them. |
| But that’s only if the Balkans can in fact be hermetically sealed off from Greece. Past experience suggests that it cannot. In the early 1990s, following the collapse of the Albanian dictatorship, at least 250,000 Albanians made the perilous crossing over the mountainous Greek-Albanian border. Aid workers say a few Syrians now are beginning to try the same route. Some may reinvigorate the Albanian-Italian maritime smuggling route, which was once a major thoroughfare for asylum seekers. | But that’s only if the Balkans can in fact be hermetically sealed off from Greece. Past experience suggests that it cannot. In the early 1990s, following the collapse of the Albanian dictatorship, at least 250,000 Albanians made the perilous crossing over the mountainous Greek-Albanian border. Aid workers say a few Syrians now are beginning to try the same route. Some may reinvigorate the Albanian-Italian maritime smuggling route, which was once a major thoroughfare for asylum seekers. |
| Then there’s the Greek-Bulgarian land border, which was used by about 30,000 people in 2015 despite the construction of a fence along parts of its length. Finally, some analysts expect a spike in illegal crossings of the Black Sea from northern Turkey towards Ukraine and the eastern Balkans. Where there is a wall, there is usually a way of getting round it. | Then there’s the Greek-Bulgarian land border, which was used by about 30,000 people in 2015 despite the construction of a fence along parts of its length. Finally, some analysts expect a spike in illegal crossings of the Black Sea from northern Turkey towards Ukraine and the eastern Balkans. Where there is a wall, there is usually a way of getting round it. |