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New poll shows Maryland Senate race tied as Edwards takes step toward paid ads | |
(about 17 hours later) | |
A new poll finds voters still split in Maryland's Democratic Senate primary, eight weeks before the election and as Rep. Donna Edwards (D-Md.) takes her first step towards airing her own television ads. | |
The Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies survey, taken from Feb. 29 to March 4, found Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) leading Edwards among likely primary voters by a statistically insignificant 42 percent to 41 percent. | |
It's the third poll released this year that shows the two candidates essentially tied. | |
Edwards leads with women in the survey, while Van Hollen leads with men. Likewise, he wins white voters by an overwhelming margin while she wins African Americans. He is more popular in Montgomery County, where his congressional district is based, and in the Baltimore suburbs and rural Maryland. She finds more favor in Prince George's County, where her district is centered, and in Baltimore City. | |
"Van Hollen’s path to victory lies in winning his regions of supremacy with about two-thirds of the vote to offset Edwards’s depth with African American voters," pollster Patrick Gonzales said in a statement. | |
For Edwards, the task will be to turn out her voters. The poll sample is 43 percent African American; in the 2008 presidential primary, the electorate was 37 percent African-American. | |
Edwards, who has struggled financially throughout the race, may finally have the funds to air television ads. Her campaign has reserved time in Baltimore for the week before the April 26 primary, according to documents filed with the Federal Communications Commission. | |
However, the campaign could always decide to change or pull the commitment before the ads are set to air. | However, the campaign could always decide to change or pull the commitment before the ads are set to air. |
Until now, Edwards has relied on a super PAC run by the Democratic women’s group Emily’s List to make her case to voters. The group just began airing its second round of ads in both Baltimore and the far more expensive D.C. region, and has spent more on its effort so far than Van Hollen’s campaign. | |
Van Hollen’s campaign has charged Emily’s List with “trying to buy a U.S. Senate seat” by financing Edwards’s paid media. | |
He has raised far more money than Edwards has, and has aired his own television advertising in Baltimore. | |
Edwards had just under $300,000 in the bank at the end of last year, less than one-tenth of the $3.6 million reported by Van Hollen. Lacking Van Hollen’s political connections inside Maryland, she has had to seek donors outside the state. But Van Hollen has also successfully won over the Service Employees International Union, a major financial supporter of Edwards in the past, and other national groups have largely stayed out of the race. |