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Why Donald Trump wins – even if the election ends in a tie | |
(6 days later) | |
Donald Trump, or any Republican presidential candidate, will only need to win 269 electoral college votes in a US general election, whereas Hillary Clinton, or any Democrat, will need to win 270, a new analysis by the Independent can reveal. | Donald Trump, or any Republican presidential candidate, will only need to win 269 electoral college votes in a US general election, whereas Hillary Clinton, or any Democrat, will need to win 270, a new analysis by the Independent can reveal. |
The difference is greater than it appears and could prove critical in eight months. | The difference is greater than it appears and could prove critical in eight months. |
Presidents are elected in the US through the ‘electoral college’. If a candidate wins a state they get that state's electoral college votes. Big states have more votes, and the winner needs a majority of all the votes. | Presidents are elected in the US through the ‘electoral college’. If a candidate wins a state they get that state's electoral college votes. Big states have more votes, and the winner needs a majority of all the votes. |
Except Trump won't. There are 538 votes, so 270 are theoretically needed. But it's possible that two candidates win 269 each. If so, the House of Representatives selects the President. | Except Trump won't. There are 538 votes, so 270 are theoretically needed. But it's possible that two candidates win 269 each. If so, the House of Representatives selects the President. |
The problem for Clinton is that the House is – and will almost certainly remain – controlled by the Republicans. | The problem for Clinton is that the House is – and will almost certainly remain – controlled by the Republicans. |
They have a majority of representatives in 33 of America's 50 states, and would only need a majority of representatives to back Trump in 26 states. | They have a majority of representatives in 33 of America's 50 states, and would only need a majority of representatives to back Trump in 26 states. |
Democrats have a majority in just 14 states, with three states having an equal number of members from each party. | Democrats have a majority in just 14 states, with three states having an equal number of members from each party. |
Every representative in the House will be up for re-election this November, and the Democrats need to win new majorities in a dozen states. | Every representative in the House will be up for re-election this November, and the Democrats need to win new majorities in a dozen states. |
But the Republicans are unlikely to lose their grip, because in much country they’ve fixed the rules. | But the Republicans are unlikely to lose their grip, because in much country they’ve fixed the rules. |
‘Gerrymandering’ is a euphemism for rigging the vote by creating an electoral map that favours a particular party. | ‘Gerrymandering’ is a euphemism for rigging the vote by creating an electoral map that favours a particular party. |
Unlike in the UK, congressional districts are almost entirely drawn by state legislatures (rather than an independent commission), most of which are now controlled by Republicans. | Unlike in the UK, congressional districts are almost entirely drawn by state legislatures (rather than an independent commission), most of which are now controlled by Republicans. |
This has allowed state Republicans to create a system that favours national Republicans. | This has allowed state Republicans to create a system that favours national Republicans. |
They do this by squashing Democratic voters in their state into certain areas, so that Democrats win one district in a landslide, but Republicans win many more narrow victories in nearby districts. | They do this by squashing Democratic voters in their state into certain areas, so that Democrats win one district in a landslide, but Republicans win many more narrow victories in nearby districts. |
Republicans have done this most egregiously in seven big US states: Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Virginia, Ohio and Florida. (A Democrat legislature has done it in Illinois.) | Republicans have done this most egregiously in seven big US states: Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Virginia, Ohio and Florida. (A Democrat legislature has done it in Illinois.) |
This meant that in 2012, when President Obama won re-election, these seven states elected 73 Republicans and 34 Democrats – even though the two parties won almost as many votes as one another across these states (16.4 million voted Democrat, 16.7 million Republican). | This meant that in 2012, when President Obama won re-election, these seven states elected 73 Republicans and 34 Democrats – even though the two parties won almost as many votes as one another across these states (16.4 million voted Democrat, 16.7 million Republican). |
As a consequence, Democrats now need to beat Republicans by around 7 percentage points in House elections to win an actual majority of representatives. | As a consequence, Democrats now need to beat Republicans by around 7 percentage points in House elections to win an actual majority of representatives. |
Democrats haven't had so weak a grip on the House for nearly 70 years. | Democrats haven't had so weak a grip on the House for nearly 70 years. |
And a big Democratic win seems unlikely in November, with polls suggesting Americans are split when it comes to a generic congressional ballot. | And a big Democratic win seems unlikely in November, with polls suggesting Americans are split when it comes to a generic congressional ballot. |
Because of gerrymandering, splits now lead to big Republican majority – and would lead to Trump’s election as President in the event of a tie. | Because of gerrymandering, splits now lead to big Republican majority – and would lead to Trump’s election as President in the event of a tie. |
A tie is more likely than you might think. | A tie is more likely than you might think. |
It would happen if Trump wins a particular combination of the ‘battleground’, or ‘swing’, states which President Obama won in 2012, and he and Clinton otherwise win the states their parties so often win. | It would happen if Trump wins a particular combination of the ‘battleground’, or ‘swing’, states which President Obama won in 2012, and he and Clinton otherwise win the states their parties so often win. |
For instance if Trump won Ohio and Florida, two states Obama only narrowly won in 2012, along with Iowa and Wisconsin, he and Clinton would tie. | For instance if Trump won Ohio and Florida, two states Obama only narrowly won in 2012, along with Iowa and Wisconsin, he and Clinton would tie. |
The same is true if he wins Florida, Wisconsin, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania (and no other states that voted for Obama); or Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Colorado. | The same is true if he wins Florida, Wisconsin, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania (and no other states that voted for Obama); or Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Colorado. |
These and other combinations are all plausible if Trump wins more ‘blue-collar’, or working-class, voters than John McCain or Mitt Romney won for the Republicans in 2008 and 2012. | These and other combinations are all plausible if Trump wins more ‘blue-collar’, or working-class, voters than John McCain or Mitt Romney won for the Republicans in 2008 and 2012. |
His performance so far in the Republicans primaries indicates he may. | His performance so far in the Republicans primaries indicates he may. |
And while many congressional Republicans are trying to stop him leading their party, it seems inconceivable that they would select Hillary Clinton, who Republicans have spent three decades vilifying. | And while many congressional Republicans are trying to stop him leading their party, it seems inconceivable that they would select Hillary Clinton, who Republicans have spent three decades vilifying. |
One vote may not seem like much, but it could make all the difference in November. | One vote may not seem like much, but it could make all the difference in November. |
If the state delegations are split 25-25 and remain so until January 20, 2017, the Vice President-elect, who will have been selected by the Senate (which could by then be controlled by either Republicans or Democrats; it's currently Republican), will become President until a tie is broken. | If the state delegations are split 25-25 and remain so until January 20, 2017, the Vice President-elect, who will have been selected by the Senate (which could by then be controlled by either Republicans or Democrats; it's currently Republican), will become President until a tie is broken. |
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