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| Ben Carson's endorsement of Trump may be more impactful than you think | Ben Carson's endorsement of Trump may be more impactful than you think |
| (about 1 hour later) | |
| Though Ben Carson was repeatedly mocked by the media – incidents like his confused debate entrance made it all too easy – the retired neurosurgeon did have the support of many Republicans. Just before he dropped out of the race, polling averages put Carson at 9% – slightly ahead of John Kasich and less than 10 percentage points behind Marco Rubio. So does Carson’s endorsement of Donald Trump count for more than the seven other politicians who have already done the same? | Though Ben Carson was repeatedly mocked by the media – incidents like his confused debate entrance made it all too easy – the retired neurosurgeon did have the support of many Republicans. Just before he dropped out of the race, polling averages put Carson at 9% – slightly ahead of John Kasich and less than 10 percentage points behind Marco Rubio. So does Carson’s endorsement of Donald Trump count for more than the seven other politicians who have already done the same? |
| Related: Ben Carson endorses former rival Donald Trump ahead of Florida primary | |
| You might not recognize everyone on Trump’s list of political endorsements. Here are the names so far: | You might not recognize everyone on Trump’s list of political endorsements. Here are the names so far: |
| Those titles could matter. FiveThirtyEight assigns points to endorsements based on an individual’s role in office. An endorsement from a representative means 1 point; from a senator 5 points and from a governor 10 points. The numbers aren’t looking great for Trump – the seven politicians who have backed him so far mean a total score of 29, the lowest on the table. Marco Rubio currently has 67 endorsements which together create a total score of 168, while Cruz has 49 points. | Those titles could matter. FiveThirtyEight assigns points to endorsements based on an individual’s role in office. An endorsement from a representative means 1 point; from a senator 5 points and from a governor 10 points. The numbers aren’t looking great for Trump – the seven politicians who have backed him so far mean a total score of 29, the lowest on the table. Marco Rubio currently has 67 endorsements which together create a total score of 168, while Cruz has 49 points. |
| You may have noticed that the list of seven white men who have endorsed Donald Trump so far doesn’t include Sarah Palin, who announced her support for the billionaire’s bid for presidency in January. That’s because, as a former governor of Alaska, Palin scores no points in the FiveThirtyEight league tables. But perhaps she holds sway among Republican voters. | You may have noticed that the list of seven white men who have endorsed Donald Trump so far doesn’t include Sarah Palin, who announced her support for the billionaire’s bid for presidency in January. That’s because, as a former governor of Alaska, Palin scores no points in the FiveThirtyEight league tables. But perhaps she holds sway among Republican voters. |
| Since Palin’s retirement from mainstream politics, polls have continued to ask US respondents about their attitudes about Palin. Since 2008, positive sentiment towards Palin has plummeted but overall, more Republicans report a favorable opinion of her than an unfavorable one. In August 2013, Monmouth University found that Palin’s net favorability among Republicans was still at a relatively healthy +27 percentage points (among all voters though, her net favorability was -35 percentage points – numbers that are strikingly similar to those for Trump). | Since Palin’s retirement from mainstream politics, polls have continued to ask US respondents about their attitudes about Palin. Since 2008, positive sentiment towards Palin has plummeted but overall, more Republicans report a favorable opinion of her than an unfavorable one. In August 2013, Monmouth University found that Palin’s net favorability among Republicans was still at a relatively healthy +27 percentage points (among all voters though, her net favorability was -35 percentage points – numbers that are strikingly similar to those for Trump). |
| Are the numbers reliable? Palin probably thinks so. In February, when polls revealed that Trump was leading the Republican race, Palin commented: | Are the numbers reliable? Palin probably thinks so. In February, when polls revealed that Trump was leading the Republican race, Palin commented: |
| Usually, I say polls are only good for strippers and cross-country skiers, but in this case, I do think that the polls are accurate and are reflecting that the American people, the electorate ... we’re looking for something different. | Usually, I say polls are only good for strippers and cross-country skiers, but in this case, I do think that the polls are accurate and are reflecting that the American people, the electorate ... we’re looking for something different. |
| More recent numbers are available for other individuals who have endorsed Trump. So far this year, 10 polls have asked whether respondents have a favorable opinion of Chris Christie – all of them have found a negative overall response. On average, Christie’s net favorability is -18 percentage points. | More recent numbers are available for other individuals who have endorsed Trump. So far this year, 10 polls have asked whether respondents have a favorable opinion of Chris Christie – all of them have found a negative overall response. On average, Christie’s net favorability is -18 percentage points. |
| Ben Carson fares slightly better. On average, polls show Carson’s net favorability at -9 percentage points (don’t forget that still means that on average, 36% of Republicans have a positive attitude towards Carson). If history is any guide, those numbers could change. From March to December last year, Carson was consistently showing positive net favorability in polls – hardly surprising given that he was in second place in the Republican race, behind Trump. But public appearances haven’t been great for Carson’s public image. For today’s endorsement to continue to carry weight, it might be best for Trump if this is the last thing Carson says for a while. | Ben Carson fares slightly better. On average, polls show Carson’s net favorability at -9 percentage points (don’t forget that still means that on average, 36% of Republicans have a positive attitude towards Carson). If history is any guide, those numbers could change. From March to December last year, Carson was consistently showing positive net favorability in polls – hardly surprising given that he was in second place in the Republican race, behind Trump. But public appearances haven’t been great for Carson’s public image. For today’s endorsement to continue to carry weight, it might be best for Trump if this is the last thing Carson says for a while. |