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Dutch to hold stormy referendum on EU-Ukraine deal | Dutch to hold stormy referendum on EU-Ukraine deal |
(25 days later) | |
The Netherlands will hold a controversial referendum next month on the EU's new partnership with Ukraine. | The Netherlands will hold a controversial referendum next month on the EU's new partnership with Ukraine. |
The Dutch parliament has already backed the EU association agreement with Ukraine, a landmark integration pact that removes trade barriers. | The Dutch parliament has already backed the EU association agreement with Ukraine, a landmark integration pact that removes trade barriers. |
But Eurosceptic activists succeeded in triggering a referendum after securing about 450,000 signatures in support of their citizens' initiative. | But Eurosceptic activists succeeded in triggering a referendum after securing about 450,000 signatures in support of their citizens' initiative. |
The European Commission President, Jean-Claude Juncker, has warned that a No vote could lead to a "continental crisis". | The European Commission President, Jean-Claude Juncker, has warned that a No vote could lead to a "continental crisis". |
The UK referendum campaign is now in full swing, ahead of the British in-out vote in June on whether to stay in the EU. It has totally overshadowed the Dutch referendum. | The UK referendum campaign is now in full swing, ahead of the British in-out vote in June on whether to stay in the EU. It has totally overshadowed the Dutch referendum. |
But the geopolitical stakes are high in the EU agreement with Ukraine. The ultimate aim is to integrate the ex-Soviet republic into the EU's internal market - and Russia is hostile to it. | But the geopolitical stakes are high in the EU agreement with Ukraine. The ultimate aim is to integrate the ex-Soviet republic into the EU's internal market - and Russia is hostile to it. |
Supporters see it as a key step to draw Ukraine out of Russia's orbit but Eurosceptics say it goes too far, too fast. | Supporters see it as a key step to draw Ukraine out of Russia's orbit but Eurosceptics say it goes too far, too fast. |
Under a new Dutch law, more than 300,000 signatures are required to secure a referendum. Once the signatures have been verified, the vote must be held within six months. | Under a new Dutch law, more than 300,000 signatures are required to secure a referendum. Once the signatures have been verified, the vote must be held within six months. |
Next month's vote is the first under the new law, which was designed to improve Dutch democracy by giving citizens a bigger say. | Next month's vote is the first under the new law, which was designed to improve Dutch democracy by giving citizens a bigger say. |
Chance to protest | Chance to protest |
A leading No campaigner, Thierry Baudet, said: "This is a chance to say we're here too, the most important thing is to finally give the Dutch people a vote on the continuous expansion and increase of powers of the European Union." | A leading No campaigner, Thierry Baudet, said: "This is a chance to say we're here too, the most important thing is to finally give the Dutch people a vote on the continuous expansion and increase of powers of the European Union." |
He accused the EU of "reckless geopolitical moves". | He accused the EU of "reckless geopolitical moves". |
An association agreement must be ratified by all EU member states. So could a No vote by the Dutch block the deal? | An association agreement must be ratified by all EU member states. So could a No vote by the Dutch block the deal? |
Tony van der Togt of the Clingendael Institute, a Dutch foreign affairs think-tank, said a No would mean "uncharted waters" - even though the referendum is not legally binding. | Tony van der Togt of the Clingendael Institute, a Dutch foreign affairs think-tank, said a No would mean "uncharted waters" - even though the referendum is not legally binding. |
A big rejection of the agreement would oblige the government to resubmit it to parliament for approval, he said. | A big rejection of the agreement would oblige the government to resubmit it to parliament for approval, he said. |
But a low turnout would make it easier for politicians to dismiss the result. | But a low turnout would make it easier for politicians to dismiss the result. |
Andre Krouwel, a political scientist at VU Free University in Amsterdam, said Commission President Juncker's warning was counter-productive. | |
"He's telling people who want to vote against, 'If you get a majority then you create a crisis' - and that's exactly what the anti-European camp wants." | "He's telling people who want to vote against, 'If you get a majority then you create a crisis' - and that's exactly what the anti-European camp wants." |
Confusing message? | Confusing message? |
The referendum comes at a time of voter frustration. With the migrant crisis and economic uncertainty, people are increasingly questioning the EU's ability to provide security and stability. | The referendum comes at a time of voter frustration. With the migrant crisis and economic uncertainty, people are increasingly questioning the EU's ability to provide security and stability. |
The vote is being seen as a litmus test of public opinion. | The vote is being seen as a litmus test of public opinion. |
According to Mr Krouwel, the Eurosceptics are abusing the referendum process. | According to Mr Krouwel, the Eurosceptics are abusing the referendum process. |
"They're increasing our ignorance because they're not talking about what really should be decided," he complained. | "They're increasing our ignorance because they're not talking about what really should be decided," he complained. |
"If people want to get out of the EU, let's ask them that. With this referendum, people will not know what it means." | "If people want to get out of the EU, let's ask them that. With this referendum, people will not know what it means." |
And Russia is already a factor in this vote. | And Russia is already a factor in this vote. |
Many of those in favour of the Ukraine deal say a vote against it will throw Russian President Vladimir Putin a propaganda victory. | Many of those in favour of the Ukraine deal say a vote against it will throw Russian President Vladimir Putin a propaganda victory. |
MH17 tragedy | MH17 tragedy |
In a jazz bar in the north of Amsterdam, newspaper columnist Bert Lanting showed me a big feature with a photo of the mangled wreckage of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17. | In a jazz bar in the north of Amsterdam, newspaper columnist Bert Lanting showed me a big feature with a photo of the mangled wreckage of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17. |
He said he had received hate mail after writing an article accusing the Eurosceptics of taking Russia's side. | He said he had received hate mail after writing an article accusing the Eurosceptics of taking Russia's side. |
"It's true," he said. "If you're saying No to the [Ukraine] treaty you're supporting the people who downed flight MH17." | "It's true," he said. "If you're saying No to the [Ukraine] treaty you're supporting the people who downed flight MH17." |
The Netherlands suffered the most deaths - 193 - when the passenger jet was shot out of the sky over rebel-held eastern Ukraine in July 2014. Many of the 298 victims' families blame President Putin. | The Netherlands suffered the most deaths - 193 - when the passenger jet was shot out of the sky over rebel-held eastern Ukraine in July 2014. Many of the 298 victims' families blame President Putin. |
The West and Ukraine say Russian-backed rebels brought down the Boeing 777 but Russia blames Ukrainian forces. | The West and Ukraine say Russian-backed rebels brought down the Boeing 777 but Russia blames Ukrainian forces. |
"Most people in Ukraine, they supported this treaty," Lanting said. "Who are we [the Dutch] to say you can't decide on your own future?" | "Most people in Ukraine, they supported this treaty," Lanting said. "Who are we [the Dutch] to say you can't decide on your own future?" |
Despite the high stakes, many Dutch citizens have no idea they are being asked to vote on this issue. | Despite the high stakes, many Dutch citizens have no idea they are being asked to vote on this issue. |
In a small, unscientific survey on Grote Markt Street in The Hague, I asked shoppers if they were aware of the referendum. They responded with shrugs and blank stares. | In a small, unscientific survey on Grote Markt Street in The Hague, I asked shoppers if they were aware of the referendum. They responded with shrugs and blank stares. |
According to an Ipsos poll released this week, 27% of Dutch voters are completely unaware of the referendum. | According to an Ipsos poll released this week, 27% of Dutch voters are completely unaware of the referendum. |
Turnout must exceed 30% for it to be officially valid. The immediate challenge will be to convince the Dutch public that this is an issue worth voting on. | Turnout must exceed 30% for it to be officially valid. The immediate challenge will be to convince the Dutch public that this is an issue worth voting on. |
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