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Anti-refugee party makes big gains in German state elections Anti-refugee AfD party makes big gains in German state elections
(about 3 hours later)
The anti-refugee party Alternative für Deutschland appears to have made dramatic gains at regional elections in Germany, entering state parliament for the first time in three regions as the country faces polarisation over Angela Merkel’s open border-stance, exit polls indicate. The anti-refugee party, Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), has shaken up Germany’s political landscape with dramatic gains at regional elections, entering state parliament for the first time in three regions off the back of rising anger with Angela Merkel’s asylum policy.
In Saxony-Anhalt, in the former East Germany, the AfD gained 22.8%, according to initial results – a performance that, if confirmed, would make it the second-biggest party behind the chancellor’s Christian Democrats. In both Rhineland-Palatinate and Baden-Württemberg, the party with links to the rightwing Pegida movement appeared to have won more than 10% of the vote. But, in a sign of the increasingly polarised nature of Germany’s political debate, pro-refugee candidates also achieved two resounding victories in the elections – the first to take place in Germany since the chancellor embarked on her flagship open-doors approach to the migration crisis.
Merkel’s Christian Democrat party suffered painful defeats to more left-leaning parties in two out of three states, one of them Baden-Württemberg, a region dominated by the CDU since the end of the second world war. News weekly Der Spiegel described the result as a “black Sunday” for the conservatives. The CDU also failed to oust the incumbent Social Democrats in Rhineland-Palatinate.
But it was the breakthrough of the AfD – a party that did not exist a little more than three years ago and last year was on the verge of collapse – that was arguably most striking. In Saxony-Anhalt in the former east Germany, the party with links to the far-right Pegida movement had gained 24%, according to initial exit polls, thus becoming the second-biggest party behind the CDU. In both Rhineland-Palatinate and Baden-Württemberg, it appeared to have gained more than 10%.
Related: Angela Merkel: enigmatic leader of a divided land | profileRelated: Angela Merkel: enigmatic leader of a divided land | profile
The exit polls indicated Merkel’s party had suffered painful defeats in both Rhineland-Palatinate, where it failed to challenge the incumbent Social Democrats, and in Baden-Württemberg in the south-west, where the CDU’s candidate was defeated by his Green rival. Germany’s rightwing upstarts appeared to have benefited from an increased voter turnout across the country. In all three states, the AfD gained most of its votes from people who had not voted before, rather than disillusioned CDU voters. In Saxony-Anhalt, as many as 40% of AfD voters were previously non-voters, while 56% of AfD voters in the state said they had opted for the party because of the refugee crisis, according to one poll.
The elections are the first to take place in Germany after a dramatic seven months that have seen the public become increasingly divided over Merkel’s asylum policy. Well over 1.1 million refugees have entered the country in the past year or more. With AfD establishing itself in state parliaments, the populist party is unlikely to remain a “temporary phenomenon” as Merkel had claimed in an interview last week.
Yet the poor showings for the Christian Democrats on Sunday night may not necessarily be seen as a substantial blow to Merkel’s leadership. In all three states, CDU candidates had distanced themselves to varying degrees from their leader’s stance on the refugee crisis. Andre Poggenburg, the AfD’s lead candidate in Saxony-Anhalt, said: “We have achieved something very important: we have mobilised many non-voters to take part in the election, something the established parties have failed to do”. Deputy leader Alexander Gauland told supporters at a rally last night that his party would “chase the old parties to hell”.
According to the newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung, the chances of the chancellor’s authority being called into question by bad results for her party are “unlikely but not out of the question”. The elections came after a dramatic seven months that have seen the German public become increasingly polarised over their chancellor’s open-border stance, with well over 1.1 million refugees entering the country in the past year and the euphoric welcome given to many refugees last summer at Munich train station being replaced by anger, especially when, on New Year’s eve in Cologne, hundreds of women were reported to have been sexually harassed and raped by men of largely north African and Arabic background.
Germany has seen a dramatic decrease in the numbers of refugees arriving this week. Only 89 refugees entered the country last Wednesday and 92 on Thursday – down from 10,000 people a day last autumn. If the AfD’s strong showing reflected deep hostility to Merkel’s plan, however, other results last night told a different story. The CDU’s poor showings will not necessarily be seen as a substantial blow to the chancellor’s leadership partly because, during the campaign, CDU candidates in all three states had distanced themselves to varying degrees from their leader’s strategy for the refugee crisis. The politician who won in Baden-Württemberg’s, Green state premier Winfried Kretschmann, had passionately defended the German chancellor’s open-borders stance, stating in one day that he was “praying every day” for her wellbeing.
With a centrist, pro-business party programme that defied orthodox ideas of what an environmental party should stand for, the Green party in Germany’s northwest managed to come top with 30.5% in a state. Remarkably, 30% of voters who had switched from Christian Democrat to Green in the state said they had done so because of the refugee debate.
Related: Merkel faces key test of refugee policies in German regional elections
“In Baden-Württemberg we have written history”, Kretschmann told reporters after the first exit polls.
In Rhineland-Palatinate, the incumbent Social Democrat state premier defeated Christian Democrat, Julia Klöckner, who had until today been seen as a potential successor to Merkel. Klockner had seemingly been cruising towards a victory in the state but appeared to fall out of favour after calling for an alternative plan to her party leader’s management of the refugee crisis.
According to Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung newspaper, the chances of the German chancellor’s authority being called into question by bad results for her party were “unlikely, but not out of the question”. While Merkel will now face a renewed debate inside her party over the electoral cost of her refugee policy, she is also now able to show that questioning her course comes at a political cost. “Things won’t get really dangerous for Merkel”, Spiegel wrote last night.
Merkel’s personality ratings have risen again after hitting a low at the start of the year. In a Forsa poll published last week, the chancellor enjoyed an approval rate of 50%, her highest this year.
In an election described as “pure federalism” by one TV commentator, many parties who celebrated victories in one state suffered drubbings in others. Particular the Social Democratic Party, which governs the country in a coalition with Merkel’s CDU, will be nursing its wounds after losing around 10% of its voters in Saxony-Anhalt and Baden-Württemberg, coming fourth behind the AfD in both states.
With five parties entering state parliaments in all three regions, politicians will spend coming weeks will forging complicated – and most likely unusual – coalitions. In Saxony-Anhalt, the SPD’s collapse means that the Christian Democrats lack a strong enough coalition partner and may be required to form a CDU-SPD-Green coalition, colloquially known as an “Afghanistan coalition” after the traditional colours of the German parties.