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Turnbull's popularity takes a hit, while Barnaby Joyce could lose seat, polls show Turnbull's popularity takes a hit, while Barnaby Joyce could lose seat, polls show Turnbull's popularity takes a hit, while Barnaby Joyce could lose seat, polls show
(3 months later)
Malcolm Turnbull’s personal standing as prime minister has taken a hit but Australian voters would still prefer the Coalition if an election was held today, new polling shows.Malcolm Turnbull’s personal standing as prime minister has taken a hit but Australian voters would still prefer the Coalition if an election was held today, new polling shows.
The latest Fairfax-Ipsos poll, conducted at the weekend, shows the Turnbull government has the backing of 53% of voters after preferences compared with Labor’s 47%.The latest Fairfax-Ipsos poll, conducted at the weekend, shows the Turnbull government has the backing of 53% of voters after preferences compared with Labor’s 47%.
Labor’s primary vote is 31% compared with the Coalition’s 45% and the Greens on 14%.Labor’s primary vote is 31% compared with the Coalition’s 45% and the Greens on 14%.
But since February Turnbull has suffered a 15-point deterioration in his net approval rating, made up of a seven-point drop to 55% in his approval rating and an eight-point rise in his disapproval rating.But since February Turnbull has suffered a 15-point deterioration in his net approval rating, made up of a seven-point drop to 55% in his approval rating and an eight-point rise in his disapproval rating.
Bill Shorten’s approval rating is up three points to 33% and his disapproval rating down three points to 52%.Bill Shorten’s approval rating is up three points to 33% and his disapproval rating down three points to 52%.
On who would make the better prime minister, Turnbull continues to lead easily at 61-22 but that represents a six-point closing of the gap by the opposition.On who would make the better prime minister, Turnbull continues to lead easily at 61-22 but that represents a six-point closing of the gap by the opposition.
On the issue of limiting tax concessions for superannuation contributions, support for the ALP’s policy was evenly split, with 35% of Coalition and Labor voters in favour. But Coalition voters were more likely to oppose the policy, with 47% against it, compared with just 39% of Labor voters.On the issue of limiting tax concessions for superannuation contributions, support for the ALP’s policy was evenly split, with 35% of Coalition and Labor voters in favour. But Coalition voters were more likely to oppose the policy, with 47% against it, compared with just 39% of Labor voters.
Labor’s policy to limit negative gearing was supported by 34% of all voters, with 42% against. Support was higher among Green voters (47%) and Labor (37%) compared with Coalition supporters (32%).Labor’s policy to limit negative gearing was supported by 34% of all voters, with 42% against. Support was higher among Green voters (47%) and Labor (37%) compared with Coalition supporters (32%).
Meanwhile, the latest Newspoll shows Barnaby Joyce could become the first deputy prime minister to lose his seat in an election.The poll, taken for The Australian, has revealed a two-candidate swing against the Nationals leader of 16 percentage points in his rural NSW seat of New England where he is to be challenged by independent Tony Windsor.Meanwhile, the latest Newspoll shows Barnaby Joyce could become the first deputy prime minister to lose his seat in an election.The poll, taken for The Australian, has revealed a two-candidate swing against the Nationals leader of 16 percentage points in his rural NSW seat of New England where he is to be challenged by independent Tony Windsor.
It shows Joyce is only two points ahead of Windsor on the primary vote but the former MP would win back the seat by 52% to 48% based on preference flows.It shows Joyce is only two points ahead of Windsor on the primary vote but the former MP would win back the seat by 52% to 48% based on preference flows.
The poll of 518 voters in New England taken on Saturday shows Mr Joyce with a primary vote of 46 per cent, down eight points from the 54% he polled in the 2013 election, which Windsor did not contest.The poll of 518 voters in New England taken on Saturday shows Mr Joyce with a primary vote of 46 per cent, down eight points from the 54% he polled in the 2013 election, which Windsor did not contest.
Windsor, who announced last week that he would make a comeback for the seat he held between 2001 and 2013, sits on a primary vote of 44%.Windsor, who announced last week that he would make a comeback for the seat he held between 2001 and 2013, sits on a primary vote of 44%.
When he last ran, in 2010, he received a primary vote of almost 62%.When he last ran, in 2010, he received a primary vote of almost 62%.
The poll shows the remaining 10% of the vote is shared by Labor, the Greens and others, and overwhelmingly would favour Mr Windsor, giving him a two-candidate lead of 52% to 48%.The poll shows the remaining 10% of the vote is shared by Labor, the Greens and others, and overwhelmingly would favour Mr Windsor, giving him a two-candidate lead of 52% to 48%.
That would represent a 16% swing against the Coalition from the 64.5% two-candidate result for Joyce in 2013, when he gave up a safe Queensland Senate seat to win back New England for the Nationals.That would represent a 16% swing against the Coalition from the 64.5% two-candidate result for Joyce in 2013, when he gave up a safe Queensland Senate seat to win back New England for the Nationals.