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| Election live: Trump and Clinton look to hold off rivals in crucial primaries | Election live: Trump and Clinton look to hold off rivals in crucial primaries |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 6.51pm GMT | |
| 18:51 | |
| What to expect in Illinois | |
| Mona Chalabi | |
| Primaries: Republican and Democratic presidential primaries | |
| Delegates: 69 Republican delegates, 182 Democratic delegates | |
| Things to watch out for: Illinois is a crucial state in the Democratic race. Polling averages currently show that Clinton is ahead of Sanders by just 2 percentage points. But there’s a significant margin of error on those numbers, given that they’re based on just three polls prior to which Clinton was easily leading in the double digits. If polling turns out to be as flawed here as it was in Michigan last week, Sanders’ climb to the White House might not be so uphill after all. There’s also a lack of good polling data among Republicans that live here – only six polls have been conducted here so far this year, but all show Trump with a small but steady lead on other candidates. | |
| Demographics: The profile of Illinois’ electorate is almost identical to the US national average. And voter concerns are similar to those expressed nationally too – a CBS/You Gov poll of 1,681 registered voters in Illinois that was conducted from 9-11 March found that 74% of respondents felt the economy in their state was doing badly. Half of Republican voters in the poll said they felt that trade with other countries takes away US jobs – a message that has been a key part of Trump’s presidential campaign. | |
| 6.40pm GMT | |
| 18:40 | |
| Lauren Gambino | |
| Vox Pop: The social worker voting for Hillary Clinton | |
| Name: Nancy ZeminaAge: 64Location: Lake Worth, FloridaOccupation: Social worker, retiredVoted for: Hillary ClintonIssue that matters most: Health care | |
| “Before Obama took office, there were [45+] million uninsured people and that number has been halved, or more than halved, with Obamacare.I find the fact that Republicans have tried 40 times to get rid of Obamacare ridiculous. And I think for Republican candidates to promise to repeal Obamacare without offering a plan to replace it is a crime against their constituents. I feel very passionately about this.” | |
| Zemina said she’s confounded why working class Americans would cast their vote for a Republican candidate. | |
| “Republicans are appealing to people who’ve had the wool pulled over their eyes. If they could just see through the rhetoric, they [Republican voters] would realize they’re voting against their own interest. But some people are just angry and they direct it at Obama. But really, if Republicans hadn’t blocked everything Obama tried to do they would have many more services.” | |
| Zemina is hopeful that Clinton will be able to bridge the partisan divide and work with Republicans to follow through on her agenda. “Her husband was very successful, being the consummate politician, and working with everyone to pass his agenda. I hope she can do the same.” | |
| 6.30pm GMT | |
| 18:30 | |
| What to expect in Ohio | |
| Mona Chalabi | |
| Primaries: Republican and Democratic presidential primaries | |
| Delegates: 66 Republican delegates, 159 Democratic delegates | |
| Things to watch out for: This is the only state to vote on 15 March where Trump is not polling ahead of other candidates – John Kasich, who is the governor of Ohio, is 3 points ahead of him. That might not sound like much, but Ohio is a winner-takes-all state with 66 GOP delegates available. A win for Kasich wouldn’t give him any real chance of securing the nomination, but for Republicans, the strategy at this point may be simply about trying to erode Trump’s delegate numbers as much as possible (at least according to Rubio adviser Alex Conant). If Kasich loses, he will almost certainly drop out of the race. Clinton’s lead here has eroded in recent weeks from double digits to an average lead of 8 percentage points. This is yet another state where Sanders might surpass expectations – particularly given the state’s demographics. | |
| Demographics: Ohio’s electorate is whiter and has a slightly lower median household income than the US median ($49,000 compared to $54,000). A poll from Quinnipiac University earlier this month found that gender could play a big role in Ohio’s primary for both parties. The results showed that men back Trump over Kasich 40%-33% while women choose Kasich 44%-37%. Among Democrats, the gaps were even larger with women backing Clinton over Sanders 56%-39% and men choosing Sanders 55%-43%. As ever, it’s not just overall turnout numbers that matter, but more specifically which voters show up. | |
| Updated | |
| at 6.32pm GMT | |
| 6.21pm GMT | 6.21pm GMT |
| 18:21 | 18:21 |
| Megan Carpentier | Megan Carpentier |
| Ohio governor John Kasich has spent the last week making two basic pitches to voters in his home state, as he fights for the future of his presidential campaign ahead of Tuesday’s make-or-break primary in Ohio, reports the Guardian’s Megan Carpentier. | Ohio governor John Kasich has spent the last week making two basic pitches to voters in his home state, as he fights for the future of his presidential campaign ahead of Tuesday’s make-or-break primary in Ohio, reports the Guardian’s Megan Carpentier. |
| His first pitch – much like Hillary Clinton’s, actually – is that he has experience in getting things done in Washington (from his eight terms in Congress and his five terms atop the House budget committee) and as the leader of an executive branch (his one-and-a-half terms as governor of the swing state of Ohio). His policies aren’t theoretical solutions; his efficacy won’t be based on how well Congress takes to being coerced (which is never well). | His first pitch – much like Hillary Clinton’s, actually – is that he has experience in getting things done in Washington (from his eight terms in Congress and his five terms atop the House budget committee) and as the leader of an executive branch (his one-and-a-half terms as governor of the swing state of Ohio). His policies aren’t theoretical solutions; his efficacy won’t be based on how well Congress takes to being coerced (which is never well). |
| His second pitch is that, unlike his opponents, he’s a decent human being. | His second pitch is that, unlike his opponents, he’s a decent human being. |
| Related: John Kasich's last stand: Republican hopes 'high road' leads to Ohio victory | Related: John Kasich's last stand: Republican hopes 'high road' leads to Ohio victory |
| 6.13pm GMT | 6.13pm GMT |
| 18:13 | 18:13 |
| Edward Helmore | Edward Helmore |
| Vox Pop: The pro-Hillary Miami matron | Vox Pop: The pro-Hillary Miami matron |
| Name: Rose McVeighAge: 58Location: Miami Beach, FloridaVoted for: Hillary Clinton | Name: Rose McVeighAge: 58Location: Miami Beach, FloridaVoted for: Hillary Clinton |
| “The biggest problem in this country is income inequality and the top one percent. We haven’t had a significant wage increase in fifteen years. I would like to vote for Bernie Sanders but I don’t think this country is ready for a candidate like that. Hillary and Bernie share a lot the values I believe in - human rights, women’s rights, religious tolerance. The polar opposite of Donald Trump.” | “The biggest problem in this country is income inequality and the top one percent. We haven’t had a significant wage increase in fifteen years. I would like to vote for Bernie Sanders but I don’t think this country is ready for a candidate like that. Hillary and Bernie share a lot the values I believe in - human rights, women’s rights, religious tolerance. The polar opposite of Donald Trump.” |
| “I don’t have a problem with Hillary being in the top one percent - this country is based on capitalism. Shes done an incredible work helping civil rights and healthcare, even though they’re not where they need to be. She’s highly qualified, the one who can bring us together, and she’s been fighting her entire life to be right where she is today. She deserves it.” | “I don’t have a problem with Hillary being in the top one percent - this country is based on capitalism. Shes done an incredible work helping civil rights and healthcare, even though they’re not where they need to be. She’s highly qualified, the one who can bring us together, and she’s been fighting her entire life to be right where she is today. She deserves it.” |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 6.23pm GMT | at 6.23pm GMT |
| 5.59pm GMT | 5.59pm GMT |
| 17:59 | 17:59 |
| What to expect in Florida | What to expect in Florida |
| Mona Chalabi | Mona Chalabi |
| Primaries: Republican and Democratic presidential primaries | Primaries: Republican and Democratic presidential primaries |
| Delegates: 99 Republican delegates, 246 Democratic delegates | Delegates: 99 Republican delegates, 246 Democratic delegates |
| Things to watch out for: For Republicans, this is the most important state to vote on 15 March. If Senator Rubio were going to win big anywhere, it probably would be here, in his home state. However, polling averages show that Donald Trump has consistently been in first place for voters since September and is leading by 19 points in this winner-takes-all state. Clinton, too, has had a clear lead in Florida for months – so far this month, polls have suggested she is 30 points ahead of Sanders. Remember though, unlike the Republican race, the exact vote share matters for Democrats since this affects how delegates are distributed. Sanders doesn’t need to win Florida, he needs only to erode Clinton’s lead here and collect around 100 of the pledged delegates that are available. | Things to watch out for: For Republicans, this is the most important state to vote on 15 March. If Senator Rubio were going to win big anywhere, it probably would be here, in his home state. However, polling averages show that Donald Trump has consistently been in first place for voters since September and is leading by 19 points in this winner-takes-all state. Clinton, too, has had a clear lead in Florida for months – so far this month, polls have suggested she is 30 points ahead of Sanders. Remember though, unlike the Republican race, the exact vote share matters for Democrats since this affects how delegates are distributed. Sanders doesn’t need to win Florida, he needs only to erode Clinton’s lead here and collect around 100 of the pledged delegates that are available. |
| Demographics: Of the 15.9 million Floridians who are of voting age, 12 million are currently registered to vote. The electorate is slightly older and more likely to be Hispanic than the national voting profile. A poll from Monmouth earlier this month found that 35% of Republicans don’t approve of the way that Rubio is handling his job as senator and just 7% were undecided about who they would vote for. | Demographics: Of the 15.9 million Floridians who are of voting age, 12 million are currently registered to vote. The electorate is slightly older and more likely to be Hispanic than the national voting profile. A poll from Monmouth earlier this month found that 35% of Republicans don’t approve of the way that Rubio is handling his job as senator and just 7% were undecided about who they would vote for. |
| 5.45pm GMT | 5.45pm GMT |
| 17:45 | 17:45 |
| The first sneak peek of Hillary Clinton’s appearance on Comedy Central’s Broad City has been released online: | The first sneak peek of Hillary Clinton’s appearance on Comedy Central’s Broad City has been released online: |
| The takeaway: Clinton can blink with both eyes! | The takeaway: Clinton can blink with both eyes! |
| 5.31pm GMT | 5.31pm GMT |
| 17:31 | 17:31 |
| Megan Carpentier | Megan Carpentier |
| Vox Pop: The Ohio State student supporting Bernie Sanders | Vox Pop: The Ohio State student supporting Bernie Sanders |
| Name: Ryan AntoneAge: 22Location: Columbus, OhioOccupation: Ohio State University studentVoted for: Bernie Sanders“My biggest issue right now is how this college system is structured, not to be a cliche. We take out all these loans because we think that this major will pay off in the future, but I’m already just bogged down in debt. Maybe Bernie won’t achieve full tuition-free college, but that’s not why I voted for him. I love Bernie because he has that sense that we can do more, we don’t have to settle. I think Hillary Clinton would be a great candidate but she’s said, ‘I’m the one who can get things done.’ Well, I don’t like the system as it is. Why can’t we try?” | Name: Ryan AntoneAge: 22Location: Columbus, OhioOccupation: Ohio State University studentVoted for: Bernie Sanders“My biggest issue right now is how this college system is structured, not to be a cliche. We take out all these loans because we think that this major will pay off in the future, but I’m already just bogged down in debt. Maybe Bernie won’t achieve full tuition-free college, but that’s not why I voted for him. I love Bernie because he has that sense that we can do more, we don’t have to settle. I think Hillary Clinton would be a great candidate but she’s said, ‘I’m the one who can get things done.’ Well, I don’t like the system as it is. Why can’t we try?” |
| Open contributions: Which election issue matters most to you? | Open contributions: Which election issue matters most to you? |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 6.11pm GMT | at 6.11pm GMT |
| 5.22pm GMT | 5.22pm GMT |
| 17:22 | 17:22 |
| Republican presidential candidate John Kasich cast his vote in the state primary on Tuesday, confirming to the gathered press afterward that he had selected his own name on the ballot. | Republican presidential candidate John Kasich cast his vote in the state primary on Tuesday, confirming to the gathered press afterward that he had selected his own name on the ballot. |
| He told reporters that he wasn’t going to let frontrunner Donald Trump “ruin” his day, and went on to comment on the way the reality star has been running his campaign, saying he hoped someone would “pull [him] aside” if he ever got “out of control” in the same way. | He told reporters that he wasn’t going to let frontrunner Donald Trump “ruin” his day, and went on to comment on the way the reality star has been running his campaign, saying he hoped someone would “pull [him] aside” if he ever got “out of control” in the same way. |
| 5.08pm GMT | 5.08pm GMT |
| 17:08 | 17:08 |
| Megan Carpentier | Megan Carpentier |
| The Guardian’s Megan Carpentier is having a hard time finding polling places in Ohio... | The Guardian’s Megan Carpentier is having a hard time finding polling places in Ohio... |
| Can you spot the sign labeling this an Ohio primary voting location near OSU campus? pic.twitter.com/kVOWvbFJrQ | Can you spot the sign labeling this an Ohio primary voting location near OSU campus? pic.twitter.com/kVOWvbFJrQ |
| The polling place at Ohio State University’s Newman Center - a Catholic community center on campus - was quiet during lunch hour, as just a handful of students trickled in to cast their ballots. | The polling place at Ohio State University’s Newman Center - a Catholic community center on campus - was quiet during lunch hour, as just a handful of students trickled in to cast their ballots. |
| “It’s student break,” a poll worker explained. “But we got a lot of notification of early voters” when they received the rolls. | “It’s student break,” a poll worker explained. “But we got a lot of notification of early voters” when they received the rolls. |
| The polling place on the western-most corner of OSU’s enormous Columbus, Ohio campus wasn’t easy to find, though: The entrance is on a side street, through a door at the end of the parking lot with only a letter-sized piece of paper reading “VOTING HERE” affixed to the window. | The polling place on the western-most corner of OSU’s enormous Columbus, Ohio campus wasn’t easy to find, though: The entrance is on a side street, through a door at the end of the parking lot with only a letter-sized piece of paper reading “VOTING HERE” affixed to the window. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 5.30pm GMT | at 5.30pm GMT |
| 4.43pm GMT | 4.43pm GMT |
| 16:43 | 16:43 |
| In the midwest, Sanders and Clinton are peddling very different visions of America, report the Guardian’s Dan Roberts and Lauren Gambino. In a fight for blue-collar votes, Clinton hails Obama’s legacy, but her rival condemns a “rigged economy” that rewards the rich. | In the midwest, Sanders and Clinton are peddling very different visions of America, report the Guardian’s Dan Roberts and Lauren Gambino. In a fight for blue-collar votes, Clinton hails Obama’s legacy, but her rival condemns a “rigged economy” that rewards the rich. |
| Despite spending days crisscrossing the same midwest battlegrounds in search of votes that could decide the Democratic primary once and for all, Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton enter Tuesday’s rustbelt showdown with two very different visions of the region’s economic fortunes. | Despite spending days crisscrossing the same midwest battlegrounds in search of votes that could decide the Democratic primary once and for all, Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton enter Tuesday’s rustbelt showdown with two very different visions of the region’s economic fortunes. |
| In keeping with a “glass half full” view of America, the former secretary of state is keen to stress the progress made under the current administration, particularly in reducing unemployment since the financial crisis. | In keeping with a “glass half full” view of America, the former secretary of state is keen to stress the progress made under the current administration, particularly in reducing unemployment since the financial crisis. |
| “I don’t think President Obama gets the credit he deserves for getting us back,” she told a union hall in Illinois on Monday. | “I don’t think President Obama gets the credit he deserves for getting us back,” she told a union hall in Illinois on Monday. |
| Sanders, meanwhile, has doubled down on his thesis that Americans are still labouring under a “rigged economy”, telling a rival crowd in Ohio that the country is literally “falling apart” due to crumbling infrastructure and a corrupt campaign finance system. | Sanders, meanwhile, has doubled down on his thesis that Americans are still labouring under a “rigged economy”, telling a rival crowd in Ohio that the country is literally “falling apart” due to crumbling infrastructure and a corrupt campaign finance system. |
| Related: In the midwest, Sanders and Clinton peddle very different visions of America | Related: In the midwest, Sanders and Clinton peddle very different visions of America |
| 4.14pm GMT | 4.14pm GMT |
| 16:14 | 16:14 |
| Donald Trump’s surge to frontrunner status in the Republican presidential race has caused angst and divisions among the donor network led by the billionaire Koch brothers, some of whom pushed to launch a sustained anti-Trump drive and were rebuffed, reports the Guardian’s Peter Stone: | Donald Trump’s surge to frontrunner status in the Republican presidential race has caused angst and divisions among the donor network led by the billionaire Koch brothers, some of whom pushed to launch a sustained anti-Trump drive and were rebuffed, reports the Guardian’s Peter Stone: |
| “I’m extremely disappointed about the Koch network being off the playing field,” Randy Kendrick, a leading Koch donor from Arizona, told the Guardian about the absence of anti-Trump efforts. “This country does not believe in rule by strongmen or cult personality figures.” | “I’m extremely disappointed about the Koch network being off the playing field,” Randy Kendrick, a leading Koch donor from Arizona, told the Guardian about the absence of anti-Trump efforts. “This country does not believe in rule by strongmen or cult personality figures.” |
| After pushing for a Koch network blitz against Trump, the conservative network’s top political operative, Marc Short, left last month to advise the Rubio campaign and consult for several Senate and gubernatorial candidates, some of whom are likely to get Koch network backing too, say two GOP sources. | After pushing for a Koch network blitz against Trump, the conservative network’s top political operative, Marc Short, left last month to advise the Rubio campaign and consult for several Senate and gubernatorial candidates, some of whom are likely to get Koch network backing too, say two GOP sources. |
| While the Koch network’s leadership opted not to attack Trump – due to divisions over alternative candidates, fears an attack would backfire and wariness about getting involved in the election at the primary stage – some of its individual donors have plowed over $4m into the anti-Trump Super Pac Our Principles, including the Ricketts family, which owns the Chicago Cubs; hedge fund mogul Paul Singer; Randy Kendrick, whose husband Ken is an Arizona Diamondbacks co-owner; and billionaire Stan Hubbard. | While the Koch network’s leadership opted not to attack Trump – due to divisions over alternative candidates, fears an attack would backfire and wariness about getting involved in the election at the primary stage – some of its individual donors have plowed over $4m into the anti-Trump Super Pac Our Principles, including the Ricketts family, which owns the Chicago Cubs; hedge fund mogul Paul Singer; Randy Kendrick, whose husband Ken is an Arizona Diamondbacks co-owner; and billionaire Stan Hubbard. |
| Related: Division among Koch donors over failure to stop Donald Trump | Related: Division among Koch donors over failure to stop Donald Trump |
| 3.58pm GMT | 3.58pm GMT |
| 15:58 | 15:58 |
| Next in Campaign 2016: A contested convention? | Next in Campaign 2016: A contested convention? |
| If Donald Trump wins both Ohio and Florida, he would have a stranglehold on the nomination – but any other outcome leaves open the possibility of a contested convention, report the Guardian’s David Smith, Megan Carpentier and Ben Jacobs: | If Donald Trump wins both Ohio and Florida, he would have a stranglehold on the nomination – but any other outcome leaves open the possibility of a contested convention, report the Guardian’s David Smith, Megan Carpentier and Ben Jacobs: |
| Republicans go to the polls in five states today facing a stark choice between Donald Trump and a protracted race that could descend into chaos and, some fear, potential violence. | Republicans go to the polls in five states today facing a stark choice between Donald Trump and a protracted race that could descend into chaos and, some fear, potential violence. |
| On a critical day for the party’s future, Trump could virtually lock up the nomination if he wins the delegate-rich states of Florida and Ohio, probably eliminating rivals Marco Rubio and John Kasich in the process. | On a critical day for the party’s future, Trump could virtually lock up the nomination if he wins the delegate-rich states of Florida and Ohio, probably eliminating rivals Marco Rubio and John Kasich in the process. |
| But if the New York billionaire falls short, he could face an uphill struggle in the remaining primaries to clinch the 1,237 delegates needed for an outright win, raising the spectre of a contested Republican convention in July. Even if Trump goes to the convention with the most delegates, the Republican establishment could mount a rearguard action to snatch the nomination from him. | But if the New York billionaire falls short, he could face an uphill struggle in the remaining primaries to clinch the 1,237 delegates needed for an outright win, raising the spectre of a contested Republican convention in July. Even if Trump goes to the convention with the most delegates, the Republican establishment could mount a rearguard action to snatch the nomination from him. |
| Related: Republicans in Ohio and Florida face stark choice: Trump or the unknown | Related: Republicans in Ohio and Florida face stark choice: Trump or the unknown |
| 3.41pm GMT | 3.41pm GMT |
| 15:41 | 15:41 |
| Scott Bixby | Scott Bixby |
| One-in-four Americans would consider leaving the United States if billionaire Republican frontrunner Donald Trump were elected president, according to a poll from Morning Consult/Vox poll released today. | One-in-four Americans would consider leaving the United States if billionaire Republican frontrunner Donald Trump were elected president, according to a poll from Morning Consult/Vox poll released today. |
| Twenty-eight percent of those surveyed said that they would likely consider leaving (fleeing?) the US if Trump were elected, while 65% said that they would remain. Of those who said that they would be open to leaving, more than half said they are “very likely” to consider moving. There’s a predictable party-line split among those willing to explore moving to Canada: 49 percent of self-described liberals said they’d consider leaving the US if Trump were elected, while only 12% of conservatives said so. | Twenty-eight percent of those surveyed said that they would likely consider leaving (fleeing?) the US if Trump were elected, while 65% said that they would remain. Of those who said that they would be open to leaving, more than half said they are “very likely” to consider moving. There’s a predictable party-line split among those willing to explore moving to Canada: 49 percent of self-described liberals said they’d consider leaving the US if Trump were elected, while only 12% of conservatives said so. |
| Justin Trudeau, prime minister of Canada, seems open to the idea of welcoming would-be citizens from Canada’s southern neighbor. At a Huffington Post town hall, Trudeau floated the possibility of an island off Canada’s Atlantic coast as a potential home for American expatriates. | Justin Trudeau, prime minister of Canada, seems open to the idea of welcoming would-be citizens from Canada’s southern neighbor. At a Huffington Post town hall, Trudeau floated the possibility of an island off Canada’s Atlantic coast as a potential home for American expatriates. |
| “The fact is Cape Breton is lovely, all times of the year,” Trudeau said. “If people do want to make choices that perhaps suit their lifestyles better, Canada’s always welcoming!” | “The fact is Cape Breton is lovely, all times of the year,” Trudeau said. “If people do want to make choices that perhaps suit their lifestyles better, Canada’s always welcoming!” |