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| Syrian rebels welcome surprise Russian troop withdrawal | Syrian rebels welcome surprise Russian troop withdrawal |
| (6 months later) | |
| Rebel groups and opposition activists have reacted with cautious optimism to news of a major withdrawal of Russian forces from Syria, saying the Kremlin’s move would ease the pressure on the opposition and strengthen the prospects for peace talks. | Rebel groups and opposition activists have reacted with cautious optimism to news of a major withdrawal of Russian forces from Syria, saying the Kremlin’s move would ease the pressure on the opposition and strengthen the prospects for peace talks. |
| But Moscow signalled it would remain a key player in the embattled country, apparently launching a major air offensive against Islamic State forces near the historic city of Palmyra on Tuesday, paving the way for troops loyal to the government of Bashar al-Assad to score incremental advances against the militants. | But Moscow signalled it would remain a key player in the embattled country, apparently launching a major air offensive against Islamic State forces near the historic city of Palmyra on Tuesday, paving the way for troops loyal to the government of Bashar al-Assad to score incremental advances against the militants. |
| “People are exhausted by five years of war,” said Mohamad al-Ibrahim, an activist in the town of Maarat al-Numan in rebel-held Idlib, which bore the brunt of much of Russia’s air campaign. “They just want a ray of hope for a solution and the ceasefire is a small step.” | “People are exhausted by five years of war,” said Mohamad al-Ibrahim, an activist in the town of Maarat al-Numan in rebel-held Idlib, which bore the brunt of much of Russia’s air campaign. “They just want a ray of hope for a solution and the ceasefire is a small step.” |
| Calm descended across much of the rebel-held territory in the country as the peace talks in Geneva, brokered by the US and Russia, got under way. Rebel factions were scheduled to meet on Wednesday in the Turkish capital, Ankara, in an effort to present a united front on the talks. | Calm descended across much of the rebel-held territory in the country as the peace talks in Geneva, brokered by the US and Russia, got under way. Rebel factions were scheduled to meet on Wednesday in the Turkish capital, Ankara, in an effort to present a united front on the talks. |
| Rebels are mulling their next move – there is little clarity on whether the tempo of Russian attacks would resume if the ceasefire were broken, risking the collapse of the peace negotiations and a surge in violence if the opposition attempted offensives on the ground. | Rebels are mulling their next move – there is little clarity on whether the tempo of Russian attacks would resume if the ceasefire were broken, risking the collapse of the peace negotiations and a surge in violence if the opposition attempted offensives on the ground. |
| Even if government troops on the frontlines are more vulnerable as a result of the Russian withdrawal, there is no guarantee that Moscow would not come to Assad’s aid again. | Even if government troops on the frontlines are more vulnerable as a result of the Russian withdrawal, there is no guarantee that Moscow would not come to Assad’s aid again. |
| The result, for now, appears to be a stalemate that has frozen the situation on the ground, at least temporarily. | The result, for now, appears to be a stalemate that has frozen the situation on the ground, at least temporarily. |
| “Until now the Russian position is unclear,” said an activist close to the powerful Ahrar al-Sham Islamist rebel group. “What has been withdrawn is a small amount of Russian troops, and there is definitely something planned for the aftermath.” | “Until now the Russian position is unclear,” said an activist close to the powerful Ahrar al-Sham Islamist rebel group. “What has been withdrawn is a small amount of Russian troops, and there is definitely something planned for the aftermath.” |
| Syrian government forces advanced on Tuesday towards Palmyra under “heavy Russian air cover”, according to Al-Manar – a television station belonging to Hezbollah, which is fighting alongside the Syrian president’s regime. | Syrian government forces advanced on Tuesday towards Palmyra under “heavy Russian air cover”, according to Al-Manar – a television station belonging to Hezbollah, which is fighting alongside the Syrian president’s regime. |
| Palmyra was seized last summer by Isis, which destroyed many of the city’s monumental ruins. The renewed offensive in the area came as Russian warplanes began leaving Syria following a six-month campaign that was crucial in halting the momentum of opposition fighters and cementing Assad’s rule in the country’s western provinces. | Palmyra was seized last summer by Isis, which destroyed many of the city’s monumental ruins. The renewed offensive in the area came as Russian warplanes began leaving Syria following a six-month campaign that was crucial in halting the momentum of opposition fighters and cementing Assad’s rule in the country’s western provinces. |
| The announcement on Monday night by Vladimir Putin that Russia would withdraw the majority of its forces caught many analysts by surprise. It gave renewed impetus to peace talks that began in earnest this week in Geneva, and which are aimed at finding a political solution to a conflict that has lasted five years and killed close to half a million people. | The announcement on Monday night by Vladimir Putin that Russia would withdraw the majority of its forces caught many analysts by surprise. It gave renewed impetus to peace talks that began in earnest this week in Geneva, and which are aimed at finding a political solution to a conflict that has lasted five years and killed close to half a million people. |
| The Kremlin’s sudden decision highlighted its leverage over the peace negotiations amid the absence of options for western powers. The Syrian government sought to downplay the significance of the Russian withdrawal, saying it had been agreed through a mutual understanding between Assad and the Russian president, and that Moscow would continue to back the regime’s forces. | The Kremlin’s sudden decision highlighted its leverage over the peace negotiations amid the absence of options for western powers. The Syrian government sought to downplay the significance of the Russian withdrawal, saying it had been agreed through a mutual understanding between Assad and the Russian president, and that Moscow would continue to back the regime’s forces. |
| Still, opposition fighters welcomed the move. One official said the rebels were leaning towards respecting the truce, saying the Ankara gathering would probably pave the way for a major offensive against Isis in the country’s north, between the city of Aleppo, Syria’s commercial capital, and the Turkish border. | Still, opposition fighters welcomed the move. One official said the rebels were leaning towards respecting the truce, saying the Ankara gathering would probably pave the way for a major offensive against Isis in the country’s north, between the city of Aleppo, Syria’s commercial capital, and the Turkish border. |
| “The meeting will likely lay the groundwork for a major military operation against Isis and expelling them from [northern Aleppo],” said Nasser Turkmani, a spokesman for Turkmen opposition fighters who will take part in the gathering. | “The meeting will likely lay the groundwork for a major military operation against Isis and expelling them from [northern Aleppo],” said Nasser Turkmani, a spokesman for Turkmen opposition fighters who will take part in the gathering. |
| Such an operation would also allow the rebels to roll back Kurdish forces, which have encroached on rebel-held areas. Turkey has accused the Kurdistan Workers’ party (PKK) and its affiliate, the Syrian People’s Protection Units (YPG) of carrying out acts of terrorism. A suicide bombing in Ankara over the weekend that killed more than 30 people was blamed on the PKK. | Such an operation would also allow the rebels to roll back Kurdish forces, which have encroached on rebel-held areas. Turkey has accused the Kurdistan Workers’ party (PKK) and its affiliate, the Syrian People’s Protection Units (YPG) of carrying out acts of terrorism. A suicide bombing in Ankara over the weekend that killed more than 30 people was blamed on the PKK. |