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Osborne uses budget to show his caring leadership qualities George Osborne uses budget to convince Tories of his leadership qualities
(about 4 hours later)
George Osborne might have been facing the Labour party but he was speaking to the Conservatives; not just over 300 MPs sitting beside and behind him, but almost 150,000 members across the country. George Osborne might have been facing the Labour party but he was speaking to the Conservatives; not just the MPs sitting beside and behind him but almost 150,000 members across the country.
After all, the chancellor was speaking in the context of a looming vacancy in No 10 Downing Street. The “where’s Boris?” shouts from the opposition benches were testament to the fact that Osborne’s every move is now viewed through the prism of leadership. After all, the chancellor delivered his budget in the context of a looming vacancy at No 10. The “Where’s Boris?” shouts from the opposition benches were testament to the fact that Osborne’s every move is now viewed through the prism of potential leadership.
If this was Osborne’s pitch to become a future Conservative prime minister he was positioning himself as as a one-nation Tory who wants to broaden the appeal of his party. The chancellor attempted to navigate two routes to keep himself on track for the top job: first, to step further into the centre ground with a personal pitch to voters and, second, to offer red-meat policies to sate the appetites of hungry backbenchers.
The centrepiece sugar tax was for consumers not backbenchers, some of whom who are already murmuring that they won’t support this “nanny tax” measure. Related: Budget 2016: what it means for you
Will Quince MP said there was no way he would be trotting through the lobbies in favour of the move – while another senior backbencher said Osborne would have to rely on Labour MPs to pass the deeply un-Conservative measure. That explains a budget in which the chancellor said he was not a man who could duck the issue of a childhood obesity crisis, who made a Labour land-grab with talk about Hull, Knowsley and north Wales, but who also borrowed the language of Margaret Thatcher as he praised a “nation of shopkeepers”.
For Osborne it was a chance to show himself as a caring MP who was not going to duck the difficult issue of childhood obesity. “His pitch to Tories has to be that he has the best pitch to the voters,” noted one MP during the budget. “He’s reinventing himself as a one-nation politician. Deficit cutting credentials are weak – devolution, sugar tax, schools are all much more prominent.”
There was lots of language aimed at a Labour landgrab – he even mentioned Hull, Knowsley and north Wales – and he repeatedly talked of the “northern powerhouse”. School reforms were about hitting back at complaints of a government in paralysis by instead pushing ahead with major policies, and saying that this budget was for the next generation too, not just for older Tory voters. But did a more centrist Osborne do enough to please his party, even those campaigning for a British exit from the EU? Some measures were clearly hits.
Outers in the party could be annoyed by the section on the EU – not least the suggestion that the OBR had warned about the impact of Brexit. But one Eurosceptic MP said he felt the chancellor had put it as “delicately” as possible. The energy minister, Andrea Leadsom, who wants the UK to leave the EU, was quick to praise her colleague, particularly for the homelessness measures. “Good to see focus on solving some real social problems,” she said, adding that she was pleased to see action for small business.
But there was plenty of meat for the backbenches too – changes to rates to help small business, a cut in corporation tax, a freeze in fuel duty and Isa reforms to help savers. Graham Brady, chair of the Conservatives’ 1922 committee, said he also welcomed “rate relief for small businesses ... measures to help savers ... and infrastructure investment in the north”.
Osborne had a difficult task – to keep backbenchers happy while continuing with his drive to keep Britain in the EU, and cope with terrible economic figures. And the ultimate slab of Tory red meat – a fuel duty freeze – was greeted with a backbench roar.
He tried to navigate a tricky path – keeping twitchy backbenchers happy, while placing himself on the liberal wing of his party. As for the sugar tax, one way of interpreting it is as an eyecatching centrepiece to take the attention away from the poor economic news that had also been laid bare. But the sugar tax? Osborne said he felt he simply could not avoid the issue, however unConservative it felt to try to influence consumption behaviour with a levy. A number of MPs were not so sure about that. “Why?” asked one, insisting it was “grossly illiberal”.
One new MP, Will Quince, dismissed it as the worst form of “nanny statism” and said there was no evidence that it worked. But that is not going to make him dislike Osborne.
“The thing that impresses me about George is how approachable he is for backbench MPs,” said Quince, who was given the chance to sit down with the chancellor before the budget and air his ideas.
Related: George Osborne conjures up a budget trick, but it's not a very good one
“I didn’t get what I wanted in this budget,” said Quince, but he did in the autumn statement after urging Osborne to divert money from the tampon tax to women’s charities and spend money on tending war graves. He said it was refreshing how much time the chancellor gave to newer MPs.
Others said Osborne did, just about, manage to avoid irritating Brexit campaigners too much despite highlighting the OBR warning of the uncertainty of the UK’s EU future. “It was very mild,” said Bernard Jenkin, a leading leave voice. “‘Could’, ‘might’ ... He had to say something. It was as little as he could say.”
By the end of the speech, it felt like Osborne may have done more damage with backbenchers concerned about sweeping cuts to disability benefits than with those wanting Britain to end its EU membership.
But what did any of it mean for his leadership chances? Can he convince a party that sits to his right politically to back him as a leader reaching out to voters to his left?
Not everyone is convinced. “Do you know the last time that a ‘favourite’ for the Conservative leadership actually secured it?” asked one backbencher. “1955.” So it is Anthony Eden’s footsteps Osborne will hope to follow in.