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| Version 0 | Version 1 |
|---|---|
| IDS resignation 'undermines everything' | IDS resignation 'undermines everything' |
| (about 2 hours later) | |
| On Wednesday night, senior figures in the Treasury felt quite chipper about the Budget. | On Wednesday night, senior figures in the Treasury felt quite chipper about the Budget. |
| They knew that things would get a bit bumpy over the cuts to benefits for some disabled people. But in the words of one senior Conservative, the changes were "defensible" on Wednesday because MPs would be able to say it was true that the overall budget was going up. | They knew that things would get a bit bumpy over the cuts to benefits for some disabled people. But in the words of one senior Conservative, the changes were "defensible" on Wednesday because MPs would be able to say it was true that the overall budget was going up. |
| But as MP after MP expressed concern over those welfare changes, the policy became impossible to defend. The sense at the Treasury on Thursday was that if Iain Duncan Smith's department wanted to tweak the policy, fair enough - but he had to find the savings dictated by the welfare cap. | But as MP after MP expressed concern over those welfare changes, the policy became impossible to defend. The sense at the Treasury on Thursday was that if Iain Duncan Smith's department wanted to tweak the policy, fair enough - but he had to find the savings dictated by the welfare cap. |
| Well, no more. Through today it became impossible to defend the policy. And now, Mr Duncan Smith's resignation and his explosive explanation of his motivations undermines everything. | Well, no more. Through today it became impossible to defend the policy. And now, Mr Duncan Smith's resignation and his explosive explanation of his motivations undermines everything. |
| And it creates a list of problems for the government as long as your arm. | And it creates a list of problems for the government as long as your arm. |
| First, it means moves in ministerial teams at a hugely sensitive time. | First, it means moves in ministerial teams at a hugely sensitive time. |
| Second, it undermines not just these particular reforms but the whole Budget. | Second, it undermines not just these particular reforms but the whole Budget. |
| Third, Mr Duncan Smith's letter suggests the government's mantra that "we are all in this together" is not true. | Third, Mr Duncan Smith's letter suggests the government's mantra that "we are all in this together" is not true. |
| Fourth, this creates even more animosity in the Tory party during the EU referendum campaign. | Fourth, this creates even more animosity in the Tory party during the EU referendum campaign. |
| Five, this attack on the Budget undermines George Osborne's chances of taking over the Tory leadership, when this budget was seen as a chance for him to burnish those credentials after a few bruising encounters. | Five, this attack on the Budget undermines George Osborne's chances of taking over the Tory leadership, when this budget was seen as a chance for him to burnish those credentials after a few bruising encounters. |
| And now IDS is out of government, what more will he have to say? | And now IDS is out of government, what more will he have to say? |
| Update 23:50: | |
| The timetable that led to IDS resignation: | |
| 1. The Treasury tells the Department for Work and Pensions it has have to get long-term PIPs changes ready for Budget so the savings can be included - DWP reluctantly agrees | |
| 2. Story about PIPs changes breaks on Friday, campaign groups, opposition and some backbench MPs start to get worried | |
| 3. On Saturday, Iain Duncan Smith finds out Budget will also give Capital Gains Tax cuts to better off at the same time as cuts to disability benefit cuts for individuals | |
| 4. Iain Duncan Smith is even more cross, but keeps quiet | |
| 5. After the Budget, opposition and backbenchers start to speak out against the PIP changes | |
| 6. Thursday, the Treasury and Number 10 pressure Iain Duncan Smith's team and DWP to get out and defend the changes, saying they must not back down | |
| 7. Late on Thursday night, Education Secretary Nicky Morgan hints that there may be changes although the DWP has been told to stand firm, even more grumpiness | |
| 8. Government sources say late on Friday that the policy has been dumped "into the long grass" - Iain Duncan Smith is furious they are dumping on policy they forced him to adopt | |
| 9. He decides to quit, PM fails to persuade him to stay - explosive letter drops, "all in this together"? | |
| That version of events may/will be denied in next few hours, but that's what I can piece together from good sources close to it tonight. |