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| EU referendum: CBI warns of UK exit 'serious shock' | EU referendum: CBI warns of UK exit 'serious shock' |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| A UK exit from the EU would cause a "serious economic shock", potentially costing the country £100bn and nearly one million jobs, according to a report commissioned by the CBI. | A UK exit from the EU would cause a "serious economic shock", potentially costing the country £100bn and nearly one million jobs, according to a report commissioned by the CBI. |
| The business lobby group said a study found that a vote to leave would have "negative echoes" lasting many years. | The business lobby group said a study found that a vote to leave would have "negative echoes" lasting many years. |
| It said the cost could be as much as 5% of GDP and 950,000 jobs by 2020. | It said the cost could be as much as 5% of GDP and 950,000 jobs by 2020. |
| But Vote Leave chief executive Matthew Elliott said employment and the economy would continue to grow after an exit. | But Vote Leave chief executive Matthew Elliott said employment and the economy would continue to grow after an exit. |
| He said that "even in the CBI's skewed choice of scenarios for exit" it was "forced to admit" that would happen. | He said that "even in the CBI's skewed choice of scenarios for exit" it was "forced to admit" that would happen. |
| CBI director general Carolyn Fairbairn said an EU exit "would be a real blow for living standards, jobs and growth". | CBI director general Carolyn Fairbairn said an EU exit "would be a real blow for living standards, jobs and growth". |
| She said: "The savings from reduced EU budget contributions and regulation are greatly outweighed by the negative impact on trade and investment. | She said: "The savings from reduced EU budget contributions and regulation are greatly outweighed by the negative impact on trade and investment. |
| "Even in the best case this would cause a serious shock to the UK economy." | "Even in the best case this would cause a serious shock to the UK economy." |
| For the CBI, accountancy firm PwC examined what would happen if Britain signed a free trade agreement with the EU, or decided to conduct business as a member of the World Trade Organisation, in the event of the UK voting to leave in the referendum on 23 June. | For the CBI, accountancy firm PwC examined what would happen if Britain signed a free trade agreement with the EU, or decided to conduct business as a member of the World Trade Organisation, in the event of the UK voting to leave in the referendum on 23 June. |
| The firm forecast that if Britain voted to stay in the EU, the average annual GDP growth between 2016 and 2020 would be 2.3%. | The firm forecast that if Britain voted to stay in the EU, the average annual GDP growth between 2016 and 2020 would be 2.3%. |
| This compares with 1.5% economic expansion under a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) and 0.9% if the UK struck a deal as a WTO member, PwC said. | This compares with 1.5% economic expansion under a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) and 0.9% if the UK struck a deal as a WTO member, PwC said. |
| Ms Fairbairn told Radio 5 Live: "You might call it an uncertainty shock over the next five years that reduces the GDP of the economy by 3%, [and] delivers an increase in unemployment of about 500,000. | Ms Fairbairn told Radio 5 Live: "You might call it an uncertainty shock over the next five years that reduces the GDP of the economy by 3%, [and] delivers an increase in unemployment of about 500,000. |
| "And even in the longer run the economy would stay smaller than it would have been otherwise." | "And even in the longer run the economy would stay smaller than it would have been otherwise." |
| However, Vote Leave's Mr Elliott said that average annual economic growth in both exit scenarios between 2020 and 2030 would equal - and in some cases beat - GDP forecasts for the UK remaining in the EU. | However, Vote Leave's Mr Elliott said that average annual economic growth in both exit scenarios between 2020 and 2030 would equal - and in some cases beat - GDP forecasts for the UK remaining in the EU. |
| Britain's prospects | Britain's prospects |
| If the UK remained in, PwC said GDP was forecast to expand on average by 2.3% between 2021 and 2025 and between 2026 and 2030. | If the UK remained in, PwC said GDP was forecast to expand on average by 2.3% between 2021 and 2025 and between 2026 and 2030. |
| In a free trade scenario, PwC said average annual growth would be 2.7% between 2021 and 2025, and an average of 2.3% in the years to 2030. | In a free trade scenario, PwC said average annual growth would be 2.7% between 2021 and 2025, and an average of 2.3% in the years to 2030. |
| In a WTO agreement, average annual GDP growth would be 2.6% between 2021 and 2025 and 2.4% up to 2030, forecast PwC. | In a WTO agreement, average annual GDP growth would be 2.6% between 2021 and 2025 and 2.4% up to 2030, forecast PwC. |
| By 2020, PwC said it expected employment to reach 32.2 million but it could fall by 550,000 in the free trade scenario and by 950,000 in a WTO agreement. | By 2020, PwC said it expected employment to reach 32.2 million but it could fall by 550,000 in the free trade scenario and by 950,000 in a WTO agreement. |
| Vote Leave said that jobs would still be created under either of the scenarios presented by PwC. By 2030, if Britain stayed in the EU, employment would reach 34.5 million, Vote Leave said. | Vote Leave said that jobs would still be created under either of the scenarios presented by PwC. By 2030, if Britain stayed in the EU, employment would reach 34.5 million, Vote Leave said. |
| If the UK left and made a free trade deal, employment would reach 34.1 million, or would hit 33.9 million in a WTO deal by 2030, according to calculations by Vote Leave. | If the UK left and made a free trade deal, employment would reach 34.1 million, or would hit 33.9 million in a WTO deal by 2030, according to calculations by Vote Leave. |
| Cost of negotiating | Cost of negotiating |
| The PwC report said there was likely to be "significant economic and political uncertainty" if Britain voted to leave because it could take at least two years before the UK clarified its relationship with the EU over trade and other matters. | The PwC report said there was likely to be "significant economic and political uncertainty" if Britain voted to leave because it could take at least two years before the UK clarified its relationship with the EU over trade and other matters. |
| Ms Fairbairn said: "The economy would slowly recover over time, but never quite tracks back to where it would have been. Leaving the EU would mean a smaller economy in 2030." | Ms Fairbairn said: "The economy would slowly recover over time, but never quite tracks back to where it would have been. Leaving the EU would mean a smaller economy in 2030." |
| She said on Monday: "There is no clear description of what kind of alternative is on the table. | She said on Monday: "There is no clear description of what kind of alternative is on the table. |
| "The European Union has no particular rush to want to do a deal with us, and we'd have to renegotiate 50 deals around the world that are currently run through the European Union." | "The European Union has no particular rush to want to do a deal with us, and we'd have to renegotiate 50 deals around the world that are currently run through the European Union." |
| 'Safe option' | |
| She added that in terms of a short-term hit, the CBI reckons that GDP "could be very low indeed over the next five years, and possibly even zero". | She added that in terms of a short-term hit, the CBI reckons that GDP "could be very low indeed over the next five years, and possibly even zero". |
| Mr Elliott said: "If we want to take back control and strike the kind of free trade deal the CBI refuses to even consider, the only safe option is to Vote Leave." | Mr Elliott said: "If we want to take back control and strike the kind of free trade deal the CBI refuses to even consider, the only safe option is to Vote Leave." |
| Britain's biggest business lobby group released the report by PwC after a recent poll found that 80% of members questioned in a survey wanted to remain in the EU. | Britain's biggest business lobby group released the report by PwC after a recent poll found that 80% of members questioned in a survey wanted to remain in the EU. |
| The CBI said it would not align itself with either side of the debate but, following the result of the survey, has set out the economic case for Britain staying within the EU. | The CBI said it would not align itself with either side of the debate but, following the result of the survey, has set out the economic case for Britain staying within the EU. |