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| Your cheat sheet for the Arizona and Idaho primaries and Utah caucuses | |
| (about 3 hours later) | |
| Since 1 February, 62 primary elections have been held to choose the presidential candidates for the next US election – and there are another 47 primaries to go. Here’s a quick primer on the next five – two Republican and three Democratic – being held on Tuesday. | Since 1 February, 62 primary elections have been held to choose the presidential candidates for the next US election – and there are another 47 primaries to go. Here’s a quick primer on the next five – two Republican and three Democratic – being held on Tuesday. |
| In total, 98 Republican and 159 Democratic delegates are up for grabs on 22 March. That might not sound like many (1,237 delegates are needed to win the Republican nomination and 2,383 to win the Democratic one) but the timing of these primaries raises their significance. If Donald Trump picks up enough delegates, public perception about the inevitability of his election could be bolstered (those perceptions could, in turn, affect voting). And these states offer Bernie Sanders the chance to gain some much-needed ground in the Democratic race – if he fails to do so, it becomes much more unlikely that he can stop Hillary Clinton from winning the nomination. So, what are their chances? | In total, 98 Republican and 159 Democratic delegates are up for grabs on 22 March. That might not sound like many (1,237 delegates are needed to win the Republican nomination and 2,383 to win the Democratic one) but the timing of these primaries raises their significance. If Donald Trump picks up enough delegates, public perception about the inevitability of his election could be bolstered (those perceptions could, in turn, affect voting). And these states offer Bernie Sanders the chance to gain some much-needed ground in the Democratic race – if he fails to do so, it becomes much more unlikely that he can stop Hillary Clinton from winning the nomination. So, what are their chances? |
| Arizona | Arizona |
| Primaries: Republican and Democratic presidential primaries | Primaries: Republican and Democratic presidential primaries |
| Delegates: 58 Republican delegates, 85 Democratic delegates | Delegates: 58 Republican delegates, 85 Democratic delegates |
| Things to watch out for: This will be the most important result of the night, partly because delegates from the Republican primary will be awarded on a winner-takes-all basis but also because of the sheer number of delegates available. | Things to watch out for: This will be the most important result of the night, partly because delegates from the Republican primary will be awarded on a winner-takes-all basis but also because of the sheer number of delegates available. |
| There isn’t a lot of polling data available to help figure out who’s ahead – the averages on Real Clear Politics are based on just two recent polls conducted with voters in the state. But the numbers that are available suggest a sizeable win for Clinton in the Democratic race. If the poll numbers are correct, she could finish with 53% of the vote, 30 percentage points more than Sanders, which would leave the Vermont senator scooping up only a handful of delegates. | There isn’t a lot of polling data available to help figure out who’s ahead – the averages on Real Clear Politics are based on just two recent polls conducted with voters in the state. But the numbers that are available suggest a sizeable win for Clinton in the Democratic race. If the poll numbers are correct, she could finish with 53% of the vote, 30 percentage points more than Sanders, which would leave the Vermont senator scooping up only a handful of delegates. |
| In the Republican race too, the shaky polling evidence points to the leading contender winning in Arizona, with Trump 13 percentage points ahead of Cruz. | In the Republican race too, the shaky polling evidence points to the leading contender winning in Arizona, with Trump 13 percentage points ahead of Cruz. |
| Demographics: Arizona’s electorate is 27% Hispanic, one of the largest voting blocs in the country. Exit polls from the Texas primary have suggested that may work against Sanders (he only got 33% of the Hispanic vote there) but in Nevada, Sanders led 53-45 with Latino voters who helped him to secure 15 of the 35 delegates available. It’s also worth noting that aside from the size of its Hispanic community, Arizona’s demographics are pretty similar to those of Michigan where Sanders defied all polling numbers and won big last month. | Demographics: Arizona’s electorate is 27% Hispanic, one of the largest voting blocs in the country. Exit polls from the Texas primary have suggested that may work against Sanders (he only got 33% of the Hispanic vote there) but in Nevada, Sanders led 53-45 with Latino voters who helped him to secure 15 of the 35 delegates available. It’s also worth noting that aside from the size of its Hispanic community, Arizona’s demographics are pretty similar to those of Michigan where Sanders defied all polling numbers and won big last month. |
| Idaho | Idaho |
| Primaries: Democratic presidential caucus | Primaries: Democratic presidential caucus |
| Delegates: 27 Democratic delegates | Delegates: 27 Democratic delegates |
| Things to watch out for: When the Republican primary was held here on 8 March, it produced a big win for Ted Cruz who got almost half of all the votes. That might indicate just how conservative Arizona’s conservatives are; Cruz is graded as more ideologically conservative than Trump on the economy, defense and individual rights according to On The Issues. Those aren’t the only political question marks here. Only one poll has been conducted in Idaho – it shows Sanders two percentage points ahead of Clinton but that’s simply not enough data to make any kind of forecast. | Things to watch out for: When the Republican primary was held here on 8 March, it produced a big win for Ted Cruz who got almost half of all the votes. That might indicate just how conservative Arizona’s conservatives are; Cruz is graded as more ideologically conservative than Trump on the economy, defense and individual rights according to On The Issues. Those aren’t the only political question marks here. Only one poll has been conducted in Idaho – it shows Sanders two percentage points ahead of Clinton but that’s simply not enough data to make any kind of forecast. |
| Demographics: Idaho’s electorate is overwhelmingly white – a factor that polling has suggested would work in Sanders favor. What’s more, the fact that voters here have a household income that’s $5,796 below the national median might mean that they are more receptive to Sanders’ messaging on economic justice. | Demographics: Idaho’s electorate is overwhelmingly white – a factor that polling has suggested would work in Sanders favor. What’s more, the fact that voters here have a household income that’s $5,796 below the national median might mean that they are more receptive to Sanders’ messaging on economic justice. |
| Utah | Utah |
| Primaries: Republican and Democratic presidential caucuses | Primaries: Republican and Democratic presidential caucuses |
| Delegates: 40 Republican delegates, 37 Democratic delegates | Delegates: 40 Republican delegates, 37 Democratic delegates |
| Things to watch out for: Utah could also be a state where Sanders can try to catch up with Clinton. Although only 37 Democratic delegates are available here (out of a total 4,763), reporting on these results tends to be focused more simply on “winners” and “losers” – Sanders could well benefit from more frequent portrayals of the former. The last poll conducted in Utah suggests Sanders is eight percentage points ahead of Clinton but there isn’t enough other data available to show whether or not that number is reliable. Among Republicans, two surveys conducted in March have suggested that Cruz has a healthy lead here of between 21 and 24 percentage points. | Things to watch out for: Utah could also be a state where Sanders can try to catch up with Clinton. Although only 37 Democratic delegates are available here (out of a total 4,763), reporting on these results tends to be focused more simply on “winners” and “losers” – Sanders could well benefit from more frequent portrayals of the former. The last poll conducted in Utah suggests Sanders is eight percentage points ahead of Clinton but there isn’t enough other data available to show whether or not that number is reliable. Among Republicans, two surveys conducted in March have suggested that Cruz has a healthy lead here of between 21 and 24 percentage points. |
| Demographics: Utah’s electorate is wealthier and whiter than national averages. The fact that voters here are wealthier could help explain Cruz’s lead (Trump voters tend to have a lower income) and the fact that they’re whiter could explain Sanders’ apparent lead (polling has suggested that Sanders will perform best in states that are both highly white and highly liberal). | Demographics: Utah’s electorate is wealthier and whiter than national averages. The fact that voters here are wealthier could help explain Cruz’s lead (Trump voters tend to have a lower income) and the fact that they’re whiter could explain Sanders’ apparent lead (polling has suggested that Sanders will perform best in states that are both highly white and highly liberal). |