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The truth about terrorist attacks: we don't know whether they are on the rise The truth about terrorist attacks: we don't know whether they are on the rise
(35 minutes later)
The deadly attacks in Brussels, which Isis has now claimed responsibility for, will have left many individuals in Belgium and elsewhere feeling frightened about a rise in terrorist incidents in Europe. Understanding whether those fears are justified however is incredibly difficult. The deadly attacks in Brussels, which Isis has now claimed responsibility for, will have left many individuals in Belgium and elsewhere feeling frightened about a rise in terrorist incidents in Europe. Understanding whether those fears are justified, however, is incredibly difficult.
According to the Global Terrorism Database, three terrorist incidents were reported in Belgium between 2011 and 2014. Finding more recent (or, for that matter, older) data about the frequency of terror attacks is very hard to do however, since these databases use a flawed methodology. Related: Brussels explosions: Isis claims airport and metro attacks – live updates
The Global Terrorism Database is as good a source as any though. Located at the University of Maryland, the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (AKA Start) was established in 2005 as a US Department of Homeland Security Center of Excellence. Start’s database covers the period between 1970 and 2014 and has information on over 140,000 reported terrorist attacks. According to the Global Terrorism Database, three terrorist incidents were reported in Belgium between 2011 and 2014. Finding more recent (or, for that matter, older) data about the frequency of terror attacks is very hard to do, however, since these databases use a flawed methodology.
In theory, that should make it easy to track how often terrorist incidents occur and where they are most likely to take place. However the Global Terrorism Database draws on news sources (as well as existing datasets, books and legal documents) to track terrorist incidents. That makes things difficult: often media sources disagree about the location of an attack, the motives of the attackers and the number of casualties. Although researchers will try to weigh the evidence and select the information that seems most accurate, it’s still a judgement call. The Global Terrorism Database is as good a source as any, though. Located at the University of Maryland, the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (AKA Start) was established in 2005 as a US Department of Homeland Security center of excellence. Start’s database covers the period between 1970 and 2014 and has information on more than 140,000 reported terrorist attacks.
In theory, that should make it easy to track how often terrorist incidents occur and where they are most likely to take place. However, the Global Terrorism Database draws on news sources (as well as existing datasets, books and legal documents) to track terrorist incidents. That makes things difficult: often media sources disagree about the location of an attack, the motives of the attackers and the number of casualties. Although researchers will try to weigh the evidence and select the information that seems most accurate, it’s still a judgment call.
It’s also problematic when media reports do agree – that can sometimes mean there are duplicated terrorist incidents in the database. And the overall rise in the volume of media reports over time can exaggerate the rise in terrorist incidents. I discovered this myself when using GDELT, an alternative database, to track kidnappings in Nigeria; my analysis was flawed because it couldn’t differentiate between a rise in terrorism and a rise in reporting.It’s also problematic when media reports do agree – that can sometimes mean there are duplicated terrorist incidents in the database. And the overall rise in the volume of media reports over time can exaggerate the rise in terrorist incidents. I discovered this myself when using GDELT, an alternative database, to track kidnappings in Nigeria; my analysis was flawed because it couldn’t differentiate between a rise in terrorism and a rise in reporting.
Therefore it’s unwise to make conclusions about whether terrorist attacks are becoming more common – but it is possible to take a glimpse at geographical patterns. That too should come with a substantial caveat, since the media is no doubt more inclined to cover incidents in certain countries. But there are nonetheless some differences so large that they reveal trends even after accounting for those caveats (and population size too). Therefore it’s unwise to draw conclusions about whether terrorist attacks are becoming more common – but it is possible to take a glimpse at geographical patterns. That too should come with a substantial caveat, since the media are no doubt more inclined to cover incidents in certain countries. But there are nonetheless some differences so large that they reveal trends even after accounting for those caveats (and population size too).
Below are the 10 countries with the highest number of terrorist incidents reported by the media between 2011 and 2014. Countries in western Europe do not appear here. The United Kingdom is the only country in Europe to appear remotely close to the top in fact: with 338 reported incidents, it sits in 19th place. Of those, 288 occurred in Northern Ireland.Below are the 10 countries with the highest number of terrorist incidents reported by the media between 2011 and 2014. Countries in western Europe do not appear here. The United Kingdom is the only country in Europe to appear remotely close to the top in fact: with 338 reported incidents, it sits in 19th place. Of those, 288 occurred in Northern Ireland.
Over the same time period, 57 terrorist incidents were reported in the United States – approximately 0.02 for every 100,000 residents.Over the same time period, 57 terrorist incidents were reported in the United States – approximately 0.02 for every 100,000 residents.