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'Classified analysis' says Trident will not become obsolete, says Fallon MoD showing contempt for the British public over Trident, says Labour
(about 7 hours later)
The British defence secretary, Michael Fallon, has rejected growing concerns that the Trident nuclear programme is in danger of being made obsolete by new technology, saying his confidence was based on “classified analysis”. The shadow defence secretary, Emily Thornberry, has rounded on the Ministry of Defence for declining to answer questions about the renewal of the Trident nuclear programme on the grounds the information is “classified”.
She was responding to a speech hours earlier by the defence secretary, Michael Fallon, who rejected arguments that the proposed new submarines, scheduled to become operational in the early 2030s, were at risk of becoming obsolete because of technological advances in surveillance.
Fallon said his confidence that the Trident programme would not become obsolete was based partly on “classified information”, an argument rarely heard in Westminster these days, given the suspicions over misleading intelligence in the run-up to the 2003 Iraq invasion.
Thornberry also criticised the MoD for what she described as its failure to set out the costs of the new Trident programme. The estimated cost of the four Trident submarines alone is put by the MoD at £31bn, up from a projected cost of £25bn five years ago and £20bn in 2006. There are wildly differing estimates of the eventual overall costs, with some as high as £167bn.
The MoD, quoted by Reuters in an article published on Wednesday, offered up an extraordinarily bureaucratic comment at odds with the government’s promise of greater transparency.
Asked about the estimated cost of Trident over its lifetime, the MoD said: “The government needs a safe space away from the public gaze to allow it to consider policy options for delivering the deterrent in the most cost-effective way, unfettered from public comment about the affordability of particular policy options, some of which many not be at a mature stage of development.”
Thornberry said the refusal to answer questions “is now bordering on contempt for the public and for parliament”.
She added: “They cannot tell us what the total costs of the programme will be, they hide behind ‘classified intelligence’ to dismiss legitimate concerns, they won’t tell us what ‘policy options’ they are still considering, and they have the arrogance to say they need ‘a safe space away from public gaze’ to debate those options, ‘unfettered from public comment’ about their affordability.”
Ten years after the programme was agreed in principle, with more than £3bn already spent, she said: “It beggars belief that they are still unable or unwilling to answer even these most basic questions.”
She is writing to various select committees and the National Audit Office to press for answers.
In a speech in London on Wednesday, Fallon delivered his most detailed defence yet for renewing the UK’s nuclear programme.In a speech in London on Wednesday, Fallon delivered his most detailed defence yet for renewing the UK’s nuclear programme.
Later this year, the House of Commons is scheduled to vote on going ahead with the replacement for Trident. Labour is arguing that the four new submarines, due to become operational in the early 2030s, will no longer be able remain hidden because of improved surveillance technology and are at risk from cyber attacks. Later this year, the House of Commons is scheduled to vote on going ahead with the replacement for Trident. Labour is arguing that the four new submarines will no longer be able remain hidden because of improved surveillance technology and are at risk from cyber-attacks.
Fallon, in his speech to the Policy Exchange thinktank, said: “As practical as these objections appear, they are simply the latest in a litany of arguments employed to justify an anti-nuclear position.”Fallon, in his speech to the Policy Exchange thinktank, said: “As practical as these objections appear, they are simply the latest in a litany of arguments employed to justify an anti-nuclear position.”
Arguing that the submarines will not be made obsolete, he said: “The ocean is a vast, complex and challenging environment in which to conduct large-scale anti-submarine warfare. Our confidence that submarines will not be rendered obsolete by technology is partly based on classified analysis but also on some obvious facts.”Arguing that the submarines will not be made obsolete, he said: “The ocean is a vast, complex and challenging environment in which to conduct large-scale anti-submarine warfare. Our confidence that submarines will not be rendered obsolete by technology is partly based on classified analysis but also on some obvious facts.”
He added: “The ability to track submarines and then communicate their position brings many significant challenges. We dedicate considerable resource to assessing these emerging capabilities. We judge there is no inherent reason, for the foreseeable future, to believe that unmanned submarines will be more difficult to counter than manned submarines.He added: “The ability to track submarines and then communicate their position brings many significant challenges. We dedicate considerable resource to assessing these emerging capabilities. We judge there is no inherent reason, for the foreseeable future, to believe that unmanned submarines will be more difficult to counter than manned submarines.
“As for cyber-attack, while deployed, submarines operate in isolation. It’s hard to think of a system less susceptible to cyber-attack.”“As for cyber-attack, while deployed, submarines operate in isolation. It’s hard to think of a system less susceptible to cyber-attack.”
That Fallon felt obliged to raise the issue could be interpreted as a sign that the issue of Trident becoming obsolete is growing in strength. That Fallon felt obliged to raise the issue could be interpreted as a sign that concerns about Trident becoming obsolete are growing.
“It’s worth asking, if nuclear submarines were redundant, why would the US, China, Russia and France all be spending tens of billions of dollars on their own submarine-based ballistic missile systems,” he said.“It’s worth asking, if nuclear submarines were redundant, why would the US, China, Russia and France all be spending tens of billions of dollars on their own submarine-based ballistic missile systems,” he said.
In what could be seen as a dress rehearsal for government arguments in the Commons debate, Fallon’s speech went beyond simply warning of the dangers he said were posed by Russia and North Korea. He argued that the UK was leading the way in disarmament, cutting nuclear stockpiles, but other nations have not followed suit.In what could be seen as a dress rehearsal for government arguments in the Commons debate, Fallon’s speech went beyond simply warning of the dangers he said were posed by Russia and North Korea. He argued that the UK was leading the way in disarmament, cutting nuclear stockpiles, but other nations have not followed suit.
He did not name Jeremy Corbyn, who is opposed to Trident, but the Labour leader appeared to be the target of Fallon’s criticism of unilateral disarmament. “It is frankly naive – even vainglorious – to imagine that the grand gesture of UK unilateral disarmament could change the calculations of nuclear states or those seeking to acquire weapons. Most likely they would see it as weakness.”He did not name Jeremy Corbyn, who is opposed to Trident, but the Labour leader appeared to be the target of Fallon’s criticism of unilateral disarmament. “It is frankly naive – even vainglorious – to imagine that the grand gesture of UK unilateral disarmament could change the calculations of nuclear states or those seeking to acquire weapons. Most likely they would see it as weakness.”
Fallon made a similar attack on Corbyn earlier this year during a visit to the nuclear base on the Clyde.Fallon made a similar attack on Corbyn earlier this year during a visit to the nuclear base on the Clyde.
One of the thinktanks questioning the vulnerability of Trident, the British American Security Information Council, published a report arguing that “Trident systems must be seen as a valuable cyber-target for adversaries keen to neutralise any nuclear threat against them. If they can have some confidence of preventing a Trident launch, where does that leave nuclear deterrence? Cyber vulnerability also raises critical questions of strategic stability. Trident, intended for strategic deterrence, risks becoming a dangerous, destabilising liability.”