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Austerity politics has put jobs in danger – including George Osborne’s Austerity politics has put jobs in danger – including George Osborne’s
(5 months later)
“Austerity policies can bring growth,” the Italian prime minister, Matteo Renzi, said recently. “But it [the growth] is jobless – and one of the jobs that is in danger of being lost is that of prime minister.” In Britain, too, austerity politics has put jobs in danger of being lost – and one of those jobs is George Osborne’s.“Austerity policies can bring growth,” the Italian prime minister, Matteo Renzi, said recently. “But it [the growth] is jobless – and one of the jobs that is in danger of being lost is that of prime minister.” In Britain, too, austerity politics has put jobs in danger of being lost – and one of those jobs is George Osborne’s.
His stock is lower than it was even after the “omnishambles budget”, in 2012, when Osborne came under fire for cutting the 50p rate of tax – a tax paid only by the top 1% of earners – and financing it by cutting personal allowances for retirees and increasing taxes on pasties.His stock is lower than it was even after the “omnishambles budget”, in 2012, when Osborne came under fire for cutting the 50p rate of tax – a tax paid only by the top 1% of earners – and financing it by cutting personal allowances for retirees and increasing taxes on pasties.
For a Conservative party still seen as being in hock to the rich – when asked to pick pictures of families they thought would do well under the Tories, focus groups picked a family with a large house and the posh couple from Gogglebox – it was a disaster.For a Conservative party still seen as being in hock to the rich – when asked to pick pictures of families they thought would do well under the Tories, focus groups picked a family with a large house and the posh couple from Gogglebox – it was a disaster.
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That budget knocked the government off course for more than a year, and came very close to ending Osborne’s and David Cameron’s careers. But what really angers MPs is that this year’s gaffe – cutting the personal independence payment in order to fund a tax cut for higher rate taxpayers – is almost a carbon copy of the 2012 horror show.That budget knocked the government off course for more than a year, and came very close to ending Osborne’s and David Cameron’s careers. But what really angers MPs is that this year’s gaffe – cutting the personal independence payment in order to fund a tax cut for higher rate taxpayers – is almost a carbon copy of the 2012 horror show.
Having nearly come unstuck funding a tax cut for the rich on the backs of grannies and Greggs, Osborne has tried to do the same – except this time through cutting back on extravagances such as white canes and stairlifts.Having nearly come unstuck funding a tax cut for the rich on the backs of grannies and Greggs, Osborne has tried to do the same – except this time through cutting back on extravagances such as white canes and stairlifts.
And the only reason for the cuts is Osborne’s fiscal charter, which commits Britain to a balanced budget and forbids any tax increases, a trap for a Labour party concerned about being painted as committed to tax-and-spend: a party that, after the election of Jeremy Corbyn, no longer exists. The budget has reawoken the two criticisms that Conservative MPs make of Osborne: that he is both too clever by half, and not as clever as he thinks.And the only reason for the cuts is Osborne’s fiscal charter, which commits Britain to a balanced budget and forbids any tax increases, a trap for a Labour party concerned about being painted as committed to tax-and-spend: a party that, after the election of Jeremy Corbyn, no longer exists. The budget has reawoken the two criticisms that Conservative MPs make of Osborne: that he is both too clever by half, and not as clever as he thinks.
Worse still, it has triggered a shift in Westminster’s herd mentality. The reality is that Osborne is no more prone to unforced errors this week than he was last. Since the election, he has been forced into a U-turn over cuts to tax credits, and walked into a defeat over Sunday trading.Worse still, it has triggered a shift in Westminster’s herd mentality. The reality is that Osborne is no more prone to unforced errors this week than he was last. Since the election, he has been forced into a U-turn over cuts to tax credits, and walked into a defeat over Sunday trading.
Nor has he ever been well liked: only a few months ago, he not only trailed all of his Conservative rivals in the polls, but was booed at the premiere of Star Wars: The Force Awakens. But those weaknesses were overlooked and forgotten by MPs and commentators alike after the Conservatives’ surprise victory. Those flaws, once forgotten, will not slip from view so easily again.Nor has he ever been well liked: only a few months ago, he not only trailed all of his Conservative rivals in the polls, but was booed at the premiere of Star Wars: The Force Awakens. But those weaknesses were overlooked and forgotten by MPs and commentators alike after the Conservatives’ surprise victory. Those flaws, once forgotten, will not slip from view so easily again.
But in the short term, the damage to Osborne has passed. As long as Cameron remains in Downing Street, Osborne will remain there too. Even a sideways move to the Foreign Office – the only semi-plausible direction Osborne’s career could take – would not reduce his proximity to the centre of power. The damage is not to his chance of survival in the here and now, but in the year AC: After Cameron.But in the short term, the damage to Osborne has passed. As long as Cameron remains in Downing Street, Osborne will remain there too. Even a sideways move to the Foreign Office – the only semi-plausible direction Osborne’s career could take – would not reduce his proximity to the centre of power. The damage is not to his chance of survival in the here and now, but in the year AC: After Cameron.
Once the favourite – at least according to the bookmakers – in the race to replace Cameron as prime minister, the question at Westminster is now not when Osborne will replace his friend in Nor 10, but whether he’ll fight the next leadership election at all. As with so many doomed frontrunners in times past, his power base in the parliamentary party is light on true believers and heavy on the most unreliable element of any political coalition – “the alliance of MPs who want jobs”.Once the favourite – at least according to the bookmakers – in the race to replace Cameron as prime minister, the question at Westminster is now not when Osborne will replace his friend in Nor 10, but whether he’ll fight the next leadership election at all. As with so many doomed frontrunners in times past, his power base in the parliamentary party is light on true believers and heavy on the most unreliable element of any political coalition – “the alliance of MPs who want jobs”.
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Osborne has never had a gift for managing people. One of the ways that Boris Johnson, the mayor of London and his deadliest rival for the party leadership, liked to discomfit Osborne on the campaign trail, was by creating opportunities to meet members of the general public, an activity that Johnson enjoys but one Osborne finds difficult.Osborne has never had a gift for managing people. One of the ways that Boris Johnson, the mayor of London and his deadliest rival for the party leadership, liked to discomfit Osborne on the campaign trail, was by creating opportunities to meet members of the general public, an activity that Johnson enjoys but one Osborne finds difficult.
He has always had a transactional relationship with MPs. One complained to me, “All he does is talk about roads: would I like a road in my constituency or a pothole fixed? As if that were the sum of all politics”. This approach is based not on affection but the expectation of future returns. Without the ability to dangle the fruits of office, Osborne is like a bank without the ability to lend – unpopular, and potentially unviable.He has always had a transactional relationship with MPs. One complained to me, “All he does is talk about roads: would I like a road in my constituency or a pothole fixed? As if that were the sum of all politics”. This approach is based not on affection but the expectation of future returns. Without the ability to dangle the fruits of office, Osborne is like a bank without the ability to lend – unpopular, and potentially unviable.
Austerity has not brought “jobless growth” to Britain, as it has in Italy, but a skyrocketing number of jobs that are thankless, overworked, insecure and with little prospect of promotion. The job of chancellor of the exchequer looks little different.Austerity has not brought “jobless growth” to Britain, as it has in Italy, but a skyrocketing number of jobs that are thankless, overworked, insecure and with little prospect of promotion. The job of chancellor of the exchequer looks little different.