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| Smiles all around after Obama's Cuba visit – but which side got more out of it? | Smiles all around after Obama's Cuba visit – but which side got more out of it? |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| For a split second, it was if as two boxers had finished slugging it out after 57 years in the ring, and neither was sure who had won. | For a split second, it was if as two boxers had finished slugging it out after 57 years in the ring, and neither was sure who had won. |
| In the red corner, Raúl Castro, grizzled veteran of the revolution led by his older brother Fidel, and now president of a Cuba once again undergoing dramatic change. In the blue, Barack Obama, the clear winner of the last round: an American-style political press conference held in the communist heart of Havana’s Palacio de la Revolución. | In the red corner, Raúl Castro, grizzled veteran of the revolution led by his older brother Fidel, and now president of a Cuba once again undergoing dramatic change. In the blue, Barack Obama, the clear winner of the last round: an American-style political press conference held in the communist heart of Havana’s Palacio de la Revolución. |
| As they prepared to walk off stage this week, Castro seized the initiative. Determined at the very least to signal that the cold war was tied on points, he grabbed Obama’s arm by the wrist and hoisted it up alongside his own. | As they prepared to walk off stage this week, Castro seized the initiative. Determined at the very least to signal that the cold war was tied on points, he grabbed Obama’s arm by the wrist and hoisted it up alongside his own. |
| Related: World leaders and awkward handshakes: a brief history | Related: World leaders and awkward handshakes: a brief history |
| It may have looked just another awkward fumble, but at that moment, the central question of the trip hung in the air. Who was the victor and who was the vanquished? | It may have looked just another awkward fumble, but at that moment, the central question of the trip hung in the air. Who was the victor and who was the vanquished? |
| For most Americans, this fight was not even close. Cuba was the last in a long line of authoritarian regimes to accept that communism could not meet the needs of its people. By inviting its “cretinous” arch enemy into the marbled sanctum of the revolution and subjecting itself to the humiliation of media questions about imprisoned dissidents, the politburo was surely signifying defeat. | For most Americans, this fight was not even close. Cuba was the last in a long line of authoritarian regimes to accept that communism could not meet the needs of its people. By inviting its “cretinous” arch enemy into the marbled sanctum of the revolution and subjecting itself to the humiliation of media questions about imprisoned dissidents, the politburo was surely signifying defeat. |
| But Obama knew the answer was more complicated than that. By the standard quid pro quo of diplomacy, the US had given up much by coming here and ending its increasingly embarrassing cold war sulk; Cuba very little. | But Obama knew the answer was more complicated than that. By the standard quid pro quo of diplomacy, the US had given up much by coming here and ending its increasingly embarrassing cold war sulk; Cuba very little. |
| Throughout the trip, Castro baited the Americans too – responding to questions over human rights by pointing out US shortcomings that Obama himself agonizes over: on healthcare, gun violence, access to higher education and women’s pay. | |
| “Healthcare is a right,” said the Cuban leader more than once, in words that could have come from the lips of Bernie Sanders, the “democratic socialist” who has just shocked Obama’s own party by winning a dozen state elections for the Democratic nomination back home. | “Healthcare is a right,” said the Cuban leader more than once, in words that could have come from the lips of Bernie Sanders, the “democratic socialist” who has just shocked Obama’s own party by winning a dozen state elections for the Democratic nomination back home. |
| On the way into the palace of the revolution, one of the president’s National Security Council advisers muttered privately that he had never gone into a press conference with less idea what to expect. | On the way into the palace of the revolution, one of the president’s National Security Council advisers muttered privately that he had never gone into a press conference with less idea what to expect. |
| In the end, Obama did the only thing he could do. He kept smiling, but he let his arm go limp, his hand flopping from the wrist in a clear signal of non-compliance. | In the end, Obama did the only thing he could do. He kept smiling, but he let his arm go limp, his hand flopping from the wrist in a clear signal of non-compliance. |
| It is a move that may be taught to aspiring diplomats for decades to come. Had he tried to wriggle free, the abiding image of the first trip by a US president in 88 years would have been one of continued political struggle. Had he simply left a straight arm aloft, Obama would have gifted the Cubans the photo opportunity of the century: a US president vindicating the revolution with a socialist salute. | It is a move that may be taught to aspiring diplomats for decades to come. Had he tried to wriggle free, the abiding image of the first trip by a US president in 88 years would have been one of continued political struggle. Had he simply left a straight arm aloft, Obama would have gifted the Cubans the photo opportunity of the century: a US president vindicating the revolution with a socialist salute. |
| Instead, the question was left dangling, and the two leaders could begin to slowly come to terms with the inherent ambiguity of this week’s trip. | Instead, the question was left dangling, and the two leaders could begin to slowly come to terms with the inherent ambiguity of this week’s trip. |
| By the time to two met again at the baseball stadium on Tuesday – listening to The Star Spangled Banner played for a second time in a city once threatened with American nuclear annihilation – there was even a flicker of warmth between them. | By the time to two met again at the baseball stadium on Tuesday – listening to The Star Spangled Banner played for a second time in a city once threatened with American nuclear annihilation – there was even a flicker of warmth between them. |
| In this sporting cauldron, there was less room for ambiguity: the Tampa Bay Rays beat the Cuban national side 4-1. The two countries share a mutual love of baseball, but while the Cuban version seems closer to the egalitarian spirit of the sport’s 1950s heyday, there was a moment that could be considered more humiliating than the score. | In this sporting cauldron, there was less room for ambiguity: the Tampa Bay Rays beat the Cuban national side 4-1. The two countries share a mutual love of baseball, but while the Cuban version seems closer to the egalitarian spirit of the sport’s 1950s heyday, there was a moment that could be considered more humiliating than the score. |
| Related: Obama embraces Cuba's pastime with a spot of baseball diplomacy | Related: Obama embraces Cuba's pastime with a spot of baseball diplomacy |
| After the first ball went into the crowd, the Florida team appeared surprised to see it tossed back on to the field. In contrast to the US tradition that views stray balls as highly prized keepsakes, here in Cuba they are in short supply even inside the giant stadium of the country’s biggest team. | After the first ball went into the crowd, the Florida team appeared surprised to see it tossed back on to the field. In contrast to the US tradition that views stray balls as highly prized keepsakes, here in Cuba they are in short supply even inside the giant stadium of the country’s biggest team. |
| As an American player stooped to pick it up and toss it back into the crowd, there was undoubted affection for the roaring opposition crowd, but an unspoken and uncomfortable message too: in our country, we have more than enough baseballs, thank you. | As an American player stooped to pick it up and toss it back into the crowd, there was undoubted affection for the roaring opposition crowd, but an unspoken and uncomfortable message too: in our country, we have more than enough baseballs, thank you. |
| Later that afternoon, as Castro watched Air Force One take off, his enigmatic smile suggesteda sense of relief among the Cubans that the visit had passed off smoothly. | Later that afternoon, as Castro watched Air Force One take off, his enigmatic smile suggesteda sense of relief among the Cubans that the visit had passed off smoothly. |
| It also perhaps reflected genuine happiness at the progress the two leaders had made towards a lasting peace between former cold war enemies. Maybe even, it contained something of an afterglow from a personal friendship that seemed – from their warm farewell on the tarmac – to have strengthened over the course of two days together. | It also perhaps reflected genuine happiness at the progress the two leaders had made towards a lasting peace between former cold war enemies. Maybe even, it contained something of an afterglow from a personal friendship that seemed – from their warm farewell on the tarmac – to have strengthened over the course of two days together. |
| But most likely, as a strategist who has been at or near the seat of power for 57 years, Castro was enjoying a moment of political satisfaction that his plans for Cuba now have the endorsement of the country’s biggest neighbour – and most likely economic saviour. | But most likely, as a strategist who has been at or near the seat of power for 57 years, Castro was enjoying a moment of political satisfaction that his plans for Cuba now have the endorsement of the country’s biggest neighbour – and most likely economic saviour. |
| Since he succeeded Fidel in 2008, Castro has put the island on the path of China-style reform: gradually liberalising the economy, lifting travel restrictions and engaging former adversaries, but all the while ensuring the continuity of one-party rule. Obama’s visit to Havana – like those of Nixon, Clinton, Bush and other US presidents to Beijing – carried the short-term risk of being criticised about human rights abuses and a lack of freedoms and democracy, but he evidently decided the potential long-term gains made it worthwhile. The events of this week are likely to have made him feel he made the right call. | Since he succeeded Fidel in 2008, Castro has put the island on the path of China-style reform: gradually liberalising the economy, lifting travel restrictions and engaging former adversaries, but all the while ensuring the continuity of one-party rule. Obama’s visit to Havana – like those of Nixon, Clinton, Bush and other US presidents to Beijing – carried the short-term risk of being criticised about human rights abuses and a lack of freedoms and democracy, but he evidently decided the potential long-term gains made it worthwhile. The events of this week are likely to have made him feel he made the right call. |
| Like any politician, Castro’s priorities are domestic. He has an important Communist party congress next month that will determine the next phase of reform. Exactly what this will be is still a matter of speculation. At the very least, it will debate further market reforms, probably including the unification of the dual currency system. There is also a possibility it will explore political change. Castro has said he will step down in 2018 and that he will hold a national consultation on constitutional reform before then. But hardliners in the ruling party – inevitably though not necessarily accurately nicknamed “Fidelists” – are reluctant to accept anything that might weaken their hold on power or the still primarily socialist nature of Cuba’s economy. Whatever reforms Castro decides to push ahead with, he now has a powerful ally and an extra set of incentives thanks to the Obama visit. | Like any politician, Castro’s priorities are domestic. He has an important Communist party congress next month that will determine the next phase of reform. Exactly what this will be is still a matter of speculation. At the very least, it will debate further market reforms, probably including the unification of the dual currency system. There is also a possibility it will explore political change. Castro has said he will step down in 2018 and that he will hold a national consultation on constitutional reform before then. But hardliners in the ruling party – inevitably though not necessarily accurately nicknamed “Fidelists” – are reluctant to accept anything that might weaken their hold on power or the still primarily socialist nature of Cuba’s economy. Whatever reforms Castro decides to push ahead with, he now has a powerful ally and an extra set of incentives thanks to the Obama visit. |
| Related: Obama’s Cuba visit is latest step towards ‘new alliance of the Americas’ | Related: Obama’s Cuba visit is latest step towards ‘new alliance of the Americas’ |
| Cuba needs economic help – and not for the first time. In the first 30 years after the revolution, it depended on Soviet largesse. The impact of the fall of the Berlin Wall was arguably felt as badly on this Caribbean Island as anywhere. The misery of the euphemistically known “Special Period” was compounded by the crippling US trade embargo only relieved by the opening of tourism and support from leftwing governments in Latin American countries, particularly Venezuela and Brazil. Now those countries have problems of their own, it is more important than ever that Cuba look elsewhere for trade and aid. Obama’s visit – and his strong support for an end to the US embargo – looks set to provide a geographically natural solution to that problem. | Cuba needs economic help – and not for the first time. In the first 30 years after the revolution, it depended on Soviet largesse. The impact of the fall of the Berlin Wall was arguably felt as badly on this Caribbean Island as anywhere. The misery of the euphemistically known “Special Period” was compounded by the crippling US trade embargo only relieved by the opening of tourism and support from leftwing governments in Latin American countries, particularly Venezuela and Brazil. Now those countries have problems of their own, it is more important than ever that Cuba look elsewhere for trade and aid. Obama’s visit – and his strong support for an end to the US embargo – looks set to provide a geographically natural solution to that problem. |
| Castro did not get everything he wanted, of course. Longstanding Cuban demands for the return of the Guantánamo Bay naval base appear to have been ignored. The US insistence that the two leaders hold a joint press conference appears to have made him uncomfortable and brought more prominence to the debates on free expression, greater access to the internet and human rights – all of which were reinforced by Obama’s elegantly crafted speech at the Grand Theatre. That may not, however, be an entirely bad thing for the elderly president. | Castro did not get everything he wanted, of course. Longstanding Cuban demands for the return of the Guantánamo Bay naval base appear to have been ignored. The US insistence that the two leaders hold a joint press conference appears to have made him uncomfortable and brought more prominence to the debates on free expression, greater access to the internet and human rights – all of which were reinforced by Obama’s elegantly crafted speech at the Grand Theatre. That may not, however, be an entirely bad thing for the elderly president. |
| Much was made before this visit about Obama cementing his legacy before leaving the White House at the end of this year. But the US president is not the only one thinking of his place in history. Castro – who has lived in the shadow of his brother for most of their lives – is also crafting a reputation of his own. When he took power some thought he would be a caretaker, nursing along the old ideals of the revolution. He has done that, but this visit highlights the extent to which he has also been his own man and an agile political operator. He has maintained old ideological ties (Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro was also visiting Havana last week), while embracing the leader of the world’s biggest capitalist nation. | Much was made before this visit about Obama cementing his legacy before leaving the White House at the end of this year. But the US president is not the only one thinking of his place in history. Castro – who has lived in the shadow of his brother for most of their lives – is also crafting a reputation of his own. When he took power some thought he would be a caretaker, nursing along the old ideals of the revolution. He has done that, but this visit highlights the extent to which he has also been his own man and an agile political operator. He has maintained old ideological ties (Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro was also visiting Havana last week), while embracing the leader of the world’s biggest capitalist nation. |
| Fidel will always be Cuba’s revolutionary icon, but Obama’s trip looks likely to ensure that Raúl will be known as its reformer. More importantly, the younger Castro brother will be now probably be remembered as a peacemaker. | Fidel will always be Cuba’s revolutionary icon, but Obama’s trip looks likely to ensure that Raúl will be known as its reformer. More importantly, the younger Castro brother will be now probably be remembered as a peacemaker. |