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| Brazil's judiciary faces scrutiny as Rousseff's government teeters | Brazil's judiciary faces scrutiny as Rousseff's government teeters |
| (5 months later) | |
| After 13 years of Workers party rule in Brazil, there is now a very real prospect of a change of government. For those hoping for cleaner as well as more stable politics, the question is whether there will also be a shift in the position of the increasingly influential judiciary. | After 13 years of Workers party rule in Brazil, there is now a very real prospect of a change of government. For those hoping for cleaner as well as more stable politics, the question is whether there will also be a shift in the position of the increasingly influential judiciary. |
| Dilma Rousseff’s ruling coalition was on the verge of collapsing on Tuesday under the weight of the most severe recession in a century, a huge corruption investigation and an impeachment drive against the president. | Dilma Rousseff’s ruling coalition was on the verge of collapsing on Tuesday under the weight of the most severe recession in a century, a huge corruption investigation and an impeachment drive against the president. |
| Now the head of a dwindling minority government, Rousseff – a former Marxist guerrilla who was imprisoned during the dictatorship – will not give up without a fight. But she will have to make a remarkable recovery from her political wounds to survive the coming impeachment battles. | Now the head of a dwindling minority government, Rousseff – a former Marxist guerrilla who was imprisoned during the dictatorship – will not give up without a fight. But she will have to make a remarkable recovery from her political wounds to survive the coming impeachment battles. |
| For the vast majority of the Brazilian public, her exit would come as a relief. A poll published on Wednesday showed Rousseff’s approval ratings continued to linger at the 10% level. | For the vast majority of the Brazilian public, her exit would come as a relief. A poll published on Wednesday showed Rousseff’s approval ratings continued to linger at the 10% level. |
| Despite the early successes of the Workers party in reducing poverty, inequality and unemployment, the government – like many other leftwing administrations in Latin America – has struggled to maintain momentum after more than 10 years in power. | Despite the early successes of the Workers party in reducing poverty, inequality and unemployment, the government – like many other leftwing administrations in Latin America – has struggled to maintain momentum after more than 10 years in power. |
| Former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (more widely known simply as Lula) recognised the decline on Monday, when he compared the old troika of leftwing leaders – himself, former Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez and Argentina’s Néstor Kirchner – to the Barcelona football club’s current frontline of Neymar, Suárez and Messi. As well as nostalgia and self-aggrandisement, his words were also a lament that there is no political parallel today. | Former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (more widely known simply as Lula) recognised the decline on Monday, when he compared the old troika of leftwing leaders – himself, former Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez and Argentina’s Néstor Kirchner – to the Barcelona football club’s current frontline of Neymar, Suárez and Messi. As well as nostalgia and self-aggrandisement, his words were also a lament that there is no political parallel today. |
| The cause of this demise is now the subject of furious debate. Lula and many in the Workers party feel they are the victims of a “coup” orchestrated by opponents who were unable to accept defeat in the last election. They blame congress, the media, the markets and the judiciary for undermining a democratically elected government. | The cause of this demise is now the subject of furious debate. Lula and many in the Workers party feel they are the victims of a “coup” orchestrated by opponents who were unable to accept defeat in the last election. They blame congress, the media, the markets and the judiciary for undermining a democratically elected government. |
| Identifying heroes and villains in this depressingly murky world is a fool’s game. Nothing is entirely straightforward | Identifying heroes and villains in this depressingly murky world is a fool’s game. Nothing is entirely straightforward |
| There is some truth in these claims, but the Workers party must also blame themselves. They have failed to meet rising expectations. Their early idealism has been corroded by cynicism, openness has given way to defensiveness, and promises of clean politics have been belied by spectacular corruption scandals. | There is some truth in these claims, but the Workers party must also blame themselves. They have failed to meet rising expectations. Their early idealism has been corroded by cynicism, openness has given way to defensiveness, and promises of clean politics have been belied by spectacular corruption scandals. |
| First there was the vote-buying scheme known as Mensalão, which claimed the scalp of Lula’s chief of staff in 2005. Now, there is the even vaster Lava Jato (Car Wash) investigation into contract-rigging and kickbacks at the state-run Petrobras oil company that was used to channel billions of dollars into political campaigns – mostly for the ruling parties. Close to 50 politicians have been charged or jailed, including the former treasurer of the Workers party. | First there was the vote-buying scheme known as Mensalão, which claimed the scalp of Lula’s chief of staff in 2005. Now, there is the even vaster Lava Jato (Car Wash) investigation into contract-rigging and kickbacks at the state-run Petrobras oil company that was used to channel billions of dollars into political campaigns – mostly for the ruling parties. Close to 50 politicians have been charged or jailed, including the former treasurer of the Workers party. |
| Lula too is under intense scrutiny. His home and other properties have been raided and he was briefly detained and interrogated by federal police. He and Rousseff (who is not accused of any crime) deny involvement in these bribery networks. But as heads of party and state, they are, at the very least guilty of gross negligence in allowing them to flourish. | Lula too is under intense scrutiny. His home and other properties have been raided and he was briefly detained and interrogated by federal police. He and Rousseff (who is not accused of any crime) deny involvement in these bribery networks. But as heads of party and state, they are, at the very least guilty of gross negligence in allowing them to flourish. |
| Corruption did not start with the Workers party. It is how politics has long been done in Brazil. With so many parties, so many elections and such a vast country, huge sums of money are needed to win elections – and effectively buy majorities. A new administration might be more capable and more stable, but it is likely to be at least as tainted as the old. | Corruption did not start with the Workers party. It is how politics has long been done in Brazil. With so many parties, so many elections and such a vast country, huge sums of money are needed to win elections – and effectively buy majorities. A new administration might be more capable and more stable, but it is likely to be at least as tainted as the old. |
| The Brazilian Democratic Movement Party (PMDB), which abandoned the coalition yesterday, is the biggest party in congress and the base of every government since the reintroduction of democracy in 1985. It is not rooted in ideology, only in influence broking. Any wrongdoing committed by Rousseff has been signed off on by this party. | The Brazilian Democratic Movement Party (PMDB), which abandoned the coalition yesterday, is the biggest party in congress and the base of every government since the reintroduction of democracy in 1985. It is not rooted in ideology, only in influence broking. Any wrongdoing committed by Rousseff has been signed off on by this party. |
| The turmoil for which the president is blamed was partly caused by elements within this party who made Brazil impossible to govern. Its leaders – who are now manoeuvring to seize the presidency and “save” the nation – are all culpable for the problems of the economy and implicated in corruption scandals. | The turmoil for which the president is blamed was partly caused by elements within this party who made Brazil impossible to govern. Its leaders – who are now manoeuvring to seize the presidency and “save” the nation – are all culpable for the problems of the economy and implicated in corruption scandals. |
| The most likely successor is Vice-President Michel Temer, a PMDB veteran, who has been the target of at least two bribery investigations. Another possibility is Eduardo Cunha, the PMDB leader of the lower house, who is accused of taking more than $5m from the Petrobras slush fund. Underlining the double standards in this ugly political battle, Cunha is now spearheading efforts to remove Rousseff from office for temporarily window-dressing government accounts ahead of the last election. Passing judgment will be a lower house impeachment commission on which 37 of the 65 members also face corruption charges. | The most likely successor is Vice-President Michel Temer, a PMDB veteran, who has been the target of at least two bribery investigations. Another possibility is Eduardo Cunha, the PMDB leader of the lower house, who is accused of taking more than $5m from the Petrobras slush fund. Underlining the double standards in this ugly political battle, Cunha is now spearheading efforts to remove Rousseff from office for temporarily window-dressing government accounts ahead of the last election. Passing judgment will be a lower house impeachment commission on which 37 of the 65 members also face corruption charges. |
| Identifying heroes and villains in this depressingly murky world is a fool’s game. Nothing is entirely straightforward. Though deeply enmeshed in scandal, the Workers party strengthened the independence and authority of the institutions that have exposed wrongdoing: judges, prosecutors and federal police. | Identifying heroes and villains in this depressingly murky world is a fool’s game. Nothing is entirely straightforward. Though deeply enmeshed in scandal, the Workers party strengthened the independence and authority of the institutions that have exposed wrongdoing: judges, prosecutors and federal police. |
| With considerable regional autonomy, these judicial actors – particularly those in the unfashionable city of Curitiba who launched the Lava Jato probe – have taken on powerful politicians of all stripes. They, more than anyone, have shaken the government. For a public sick of corruption, they represented hopes that the old culture of impunity was finally over, that democratic institutions were growing stronger, that the division of powers was functioning and justice was being done. The judges – particularly Judge Sérgio Moro – have become the new darlings of the nation. | With considerable regional autonomy, these judicial actors – particularly those in the unfashionable city of Curitiba who launched the Lava Jato probe – have taken on powerful politicians of all stripes. They, more than anyone, have shaken the government. For a public sick of corruption, they represented hopes that the old culture of impunity was finally over, that democratic institutions were growing stronger, that the division of powers was functioning and justice was being done. The judges – particularly Judge Sérgio Moro – have become the new darlings of the nation. |
| Or so it seemed until this month, when the non-partisan position of the Lava Jato investigation was called into question. After Moro approved the detention of Lula and leaked federal police wiretaps of Lula’s conversations with Rousseff, the Workers party felt they were being victimised. For them, the political impeachment drive and the judicial Lava Jato investigation – which were supposed to be two different things – were two fronts in a plot to unseat the government. | Or so it seemed until this month, when the non-partisan position of the Lava Jato investigation was called into question. After Moro approved the detention of Lula and leaked federal police wiretaps of Lula’s conversations with Rousseff, the Workers party felt they were being victimised. For them, the political impeachment drive and the judicial Lava Jato investigation – which were supposed to be two different things – were two fronts in a plot to unseat the government. |
| The allegations of a conspiracy of judges and opposition are unproven. But the twin challenges to the adminstration have certainly converged in the public mind and in their combined political impact. Lava Jato has brought anti-government protesters on to the streets, while the impeachment process has come to serve as a political confidence vote. It may be ethically and legally dubious, but it has left Rousseff teetering. | The allegations of a conspiracy of judges and opposition are unproven. But the twin challenges to the adminstration have certainly converged in the public mind and in their combined political impact. Lava Jato has brought anti-government protesters on to the streets, while the impeachment process has come to serve as a political confidence vote. It may be ethically and legally dubious, but it has left Rousseff teetering. |
| If she falls, she will probably be replaced by a PMDB-based administration that will improve Brazil’s economy but make its democracy look more fragile. Of the four presidents the country has had since the end of the dictatorship era, two will have been removed from office before then end of their elected mandates. | If she falls, she will probably be replaced by a PMDB-based administration that will improve Brazil’s economy but make its democracy look more fragile. Of the four presidents the country has had since the end of the dictatorship era, two will have been removed from office before then end of their elected mandates. |
| And the role of the judges – who have played such an influential role over the past year – will come under scrutiny. The test will be whether they continue their corruption investigations with as much alacrity into the new administration as they did into the old. | And the role of the judges – who have played such an influential role over the past year – will come under scrutiny. The test will be whether they continue their corruption investigations with as much alacrity into the new administration as they did into the old. |