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| Dutch vote on trade deal becomes a forum for anger against E.U. | Dutch vote on trade deal becomes a forum for anger against E.U. |
| (about 4 hours later) | |
| PARIS — Dutch voters on Wednesday rejected a trade deal between the European Union and Ukraine in a referendum that has served as a rallying point for anger over the increasing powers of the bloc’s leadership in Brussels. Results, however, were still inconclusive late Wednesday night. | |
| Although an early exit poll showed that 64 percent of voters said “no,” voter turnout was low enough that the Dutch parliament may not be required to respond. According to the poll, voter turnout was 32 percent, just above the required threshold of 30 percent for the referendum to be valid. But results carried a margin of error of three percentage points. | |
| Wednesday’s referendum was triggered by a new Dutch law that allows challenges to parliamentary legislation if 300,000 signatures are gathered. | |
| Regardless of the results, the outcome of the referendum cannot derail the trade plans. But it was closely watched as a bellwether of growing mistrust and criticism within the E.U., which has struggled to deal with a huge migrant influx and debt crises in member states, notably Greece. | |
| [Is Putin serious about making peace in Ukraine?] | [Is Putin serious about making peace in Ukraine?] |
| Opponents of the deal also have played on fears of growing Russian pressure on Europe and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. | Opponents of the deal also have played on fears of growing Russian pressure on Europe and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. |
| Critics argue that Russia could indirectly benefit from greater E.U. commercial openings to Ukraine, where pro-Russian separatists hold territory in the east. In 2014, Russia also annexed the Crimean Peninsula amid the tensions. | |
| Supporters of the trade deal claim just the opposite — that it deals a blow to Moscow by strengthening E.U. bonds in a former Soviet republic. | Supporters of the trade deal claim just the opposite — that it deals a blow to Moscow by strengthening E.U. bonds in a former Soviet republic. |
| “To vote ‘no’ is to endorse the Russian effort to destabilize the European Union from within, and to encourage the continuation of Russia’s wars in the E.U.’s neighborhood,” wrote the historian Timothy Snyder, an advocate for a Europeanized Ukraine. | “To vote ‘no’ is to endorse the Russian effort to destabilize the European Union from within, and to encourage the continuation of Russia’s wars in the E.U.’s neighborhood,” wrote the historian Timothy Snyder, an advocate for a Europeanized Ukraine. |
| The trade deal — already approved by parliaments across the 28-nation European Union — essentially creates a free-trade zone with Ukraine and marks another significant step in the country’s integration with the rest of the continent. | |
| [Kiev’s Western gaze] | [Kiev’s Western gaze] |
| The Dutch referendum’s effect on the trade pact is unclear, even if voters snub the deal. Portions of the accord are already in place, and overturning it would require all E.U. members to agree — a highly unlikely scenario. | The Dutch referendum’s effect on the trade pact is unclear, even if voters snub the deal. Portions of the accord are already in place, and overturning it would require all E.U. members to agree — a highly unlikely scenario. |
| In 2014, the pact helped set off uprisings that eventually led to Ukraine’s civil war. The deal was initially signed but then opposed by the pro-Russian government of President Viktor Yanukovych, who was driven from office by the unrest. | In 2014, the pact helped set off uprisings that eventually led to Ukraine’s civil war. The deal was initially signed but then opposed by the pro-Russian government of President Viktor Yanukovych, who was driven from office by the unrest. |
| According to Peter van Ham, a senior fellow at the Clingendael Institute, a think tank based in The Hague, voters in the “no” camp in the Netherlands come from a variety of perspectives. | According to Peter van Ham, a senior fellow at the Clingendael Institute, a think tank based in The Hague, voters in the “no” camp in the Netherlands come from a variety of perspectives. |
| “It’s a mixed bunch,” he said. “Some vote with their guts, and some vote with their brains.” | “It’s a mixed bunch,” he said. “Some vote with their guts, and some vote with their brains.” |
| There are those, van Ham said, who oppose specific components in the deal, such as hydraulic fracturing, also known as fracking, or the potential to open doors for displaced Ukrainians on a continent already beleaguered by the largest migrant crisis since World War II. | |
| But there are others who are dissatisfied with what they perceive to be faulty E.U. promises and bureaucratic incompetence. | But there are others who are dissatisfied with what they perceive to be faulty E.U. promises and bureaucratic incompetence. |
| “The point is more of a political nature,” van Ham said. “It’s an opportunity to signal a lack of trust, a signal that the electorate has had enough.” | |
| The referendum was largely engineered by the Dutch GeenPeil, a euroskeptic social-media group whose name means “not a clue,” a jab at the European Union. | |
| The Netherlands holds elections next year, in March, and a successful “no” vote in the referendum would probably bolster the rising popularity of Geert Wilders, a leading anti-immigrant firebrand who bears similarities to France’s conservative National Front party leader Marine Le Pen. | |
| Wilders is perhaps most famous for his criticism of Islam, including calls to ban the Koran in the Netherlands. | Wilders is perhaps most famous for his criticism of Islam, including calls to ban the Koran in the Netherlands. |
| The “yes” campaign has not been helped by revelations this week in the Panama Papers — leaked documents from a Panamanian law firm and follow-up reporting from a worldwide consortium of journalists into tax havens and shell companies. The report detailed the extent of offshore accounts held by Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko. | |
| For many critics of the deal, the papers have justified the findings of Transparency International, which has repeatedly assigned Ukraine a high corruption rating. | For many critics of the deal, the papers have justified the findings of Transparency International, which has repeatedly assigned Ukraine a high corruption rating. |
| Read more: | Read more: |
| A British exit could be just the start of Europe’s unraveling in 2016 | A British exit could be just the start of Europe’s unraveling in 2016 |
| The stunning acceleration of Europe’s migration crisis, in one chart | The stunning acceleration of Europe’s migration crisis, in one chart |
| 7 things to know about the incredibly complicated migrant crisis | 7 things to know about the incredibly complicated migrant crisis |