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| Version 6 | Version 7 |
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| US Fed dampens prospect of an April rate rise - business live | US Fed dampens prospect of an April rate rise - business live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 12.26pm BST | |
| 12:26 | |
| The yen has hit a 17-month high against the dollar, following the Fed’s cautious stance revealed in the FOMC minutes. | |
| The yen is up around 9.5% against the dollar this year, despite negative rates in Japan. | |
| The dollar fell 1.4% to 108.02 yen. | |
| ING currency strategist Petr Krpata: | |
| We are in a broad based soft dollar environment, and given the yen is cheap in relation to its long-term fundamentals, it is not surprising it is outperforming. | |
| 12.09pm BST | |
| 12:09 | |
| #sausagegate | |
| Love this Wurst AGM bust up ever (Die heisse Schlacht am Daimler Buffet) https://t.co/znQhTcqeeMand Reinhard Mey https://t.co/q34UMaiFNT | |
| 12.02pm BST | |
| 12:02 | |
| Dublin Airport is pressing ahead with plans for a second runway, in a sign of Ireland’s reviving fortunes. | |
| The second, 3,110 metre runway, is expected to be ready in 2020. Dublin Airport originally received planning permission for a second runway in August 2007, but the plans were shelved as the global economy plunged into crisis and Ireland was hit hard. | |
| In a statement on Thursday, the airport’s operator DAA, said the recovery in passenger numbers - particularly in the past two years - had been “significant”. | |
| DAA chief executive Kevin Toland: | |
| Last year was the busiest year ever in the airport’s history with a record 25 million passengers travelling in 2015. Passenger numbers continue to grow strongly in 2016 with double digit growth recorded in the first two months of this year. | |
| The north runway will significantly improve Ireland’s connectivity which plays a critical role in growing passenger numbers and sustaining the future economic development of Ireland. | |
| Updated | |
| at 12.03pm BST | |
| 11.28am BST | 11.28am BST |
| 11:28 | 11:28 |
| A US recession is now “virtually inevitable” according to Societe Generale’s resident bear, Albert Edwards. | A US recession is now “virtually inevitable” according to Societe Generale’s resident bear, Albert Edwards. |
| Edwards says his failsafe recession indicator has turned to red, giving a very gloomy view of the world’s largest economy and its policymakers. | Edwards says his failsafe recession indicator has turned to red, giving a very gloomy view of the world’s largest economy and its policymakers. |
| Despite risk assets enjoying a few weeks in the sun our failsafe recession indicator has stopped flashing amber and turned to red. Newly released US whole economy profits data show a gut wrenching slump. | Despite risk assets enjoying a few weeks in the sun our failsafe recession indicator has stopped flashing amber and turned to red. Newly released US whole economy profits data show a gut wrenching slump. |
| Whole economy profits never normally fall this deeply without a recession unfolding. And with the US corporate sector up to its eyes in debt, the one asset class to be avoided – even more so than the ridiculously overvalued equity market - is US corporate debt. The economy will surely be swept away by a tidal wave of corporate default. | Whole economy profits never normally fall this deeply without a recession unfolding. And with the US corporate sector up to its eyes in debt, the one asset class to be avoided – even more so than the ridiculously overvalued equity market - is US corporate debt. The economy will surely be swept away by a tidal wave of corporate default. |
| I suppose now the S&P has recovered we are about to go through another turn on the monetary/market merry-go-round. Ignore this noise. Recent whole economy profits data show that while the Fed plays its games, the economic cycle is withering and writhing from within. For historically, when whole economy profits fall this deeply, recession is virtually inevitable as business spending slumps. | I suppose now the S&P has recovered we are about to go through another turn on the monetary/market merry-go-round. Ignore this noise. Recent whole economy profits data show that while the Fed plays its games, the economic cycle is withering and writhing from within. For historically, when whole economy profits fall this deeply, recession is virtually inevitable as business spending slumps. |
| And if I had to pick one asset class to avoid it would be US corporate bonds, for which sky high default rates will shock investors. | And if I had to pick one asset class to avoid it would be US corporate bonds, for which sky high default rates will shock investors. |
| 11.13am BST | 11.13am BST |
| 11:13 | 11:13 |
| Japanese interest rates go negative, and the yen *rises* against the dollar. Now ain't that weird? https://t.co/aKoEluYDjE | Japanese interest rates go negative, and the yen *rises* against the dollar. Now ain't that weird? https://t.co/aKoEluYDjE |
| 10.58am BST | 10.58am BST |
| 10:58 | 10:58 |
| European markets fall, fears over yen rise | European markets fall, fears over yen rise |
| Earlier gains have faded away and most indices are slightly down. The FTSE 100 is down just a touch (4 points) at 6,157. | Earlier gains have faded away and most indices are slightly down. The FTSE 100 is down just a touch (4 points) at 6,157. |
| David Morrison, senior market strategist at Spread Co, says fears over the strengthening yen are damaging investor confidence. | David Morrison, senior market strategist at Spread Co, says fears over the strengthening yen are damaging investor confidence. |
| European equities and US stock index futures are coming off their best levels following yesterday’s sharp oil-inspired rally. While crude prices have held on to recent gains, boosted to a great extent by a surprise drop in US inventories, traders are looking past these this morning and worrying about FX moves. Specifically their concerns focus on the relentless surge in the Japanese yen. | European equities and US stock index futures are coming off their best levels following yesterday’s sharp oil-inspired rally. While crude prices have held on to recent gains, boosted to a great extent by a surprise drop in US inventories, traders are looking past these this morning and worrying about FX moves. Specifically their concerns focus on the relentless surge in the Japanese yen. |
| The currency is sharply higher again this morning. The rally has gained momentum since the USDJPY broke decisively below 110.00 yesterday and the euro is also sharply lower against the yen this morning. | The currency is sharply higher again this morning. The rally has gained momentum since the USDJPY broke decisively below 110.00 yesterday and the euro is also sharply lower against the yen this morning. |
| No doubt there was some disappointment that in a speech overnight Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda said nothing new about Japan’s economic outlook or monetary policy. But the real fear is that Japan’s policymakers are losing control of the situation and will be unable to counter the yen’s rally. This is a serious concern given Japan’s tepid growth, parlous debt load and inability to create inflation. | No doubt there was some disappointment that in a speech overnight Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda said nothing new about Japan’s economic outlook or monetary policy. But the real fear is that Japan’s policymakers are losing control of the situation and will be unable to counter the yen’s rally. This is a serious concern given Japan’s tepid growth, parlous debt load and inability to create inflation. |
| 10.44am BST | 10.44am BST |
| 10:44 | 10:44 |
| The European Central Bank is prepared to inject more stimulus if necessary, according to top policymakers. | The European Central Bank is prepared to inject more stimulus if necessary, according to top policymakers. |
| Writing in the ECB’s annual report, the bank’s president Mario Draghi said 2016 would be another challenging year. | Writing in the ECB’s annual report, the bank’s president Mario Draghi said 2016 would be another challenging year. |
| We face uncertainty about the outlook for the global economy. We face continued disinflationary forces. And we face questions about the direction of Europe and its resilience to new shocks. | We face uncertainty about the outlook for the global economy. We face continued disinflationary forces. And we face questions about the direction of Europe and its resilience to new shocks. |
| Meanwhile the ECB’s chief economist, Peter Praet, told an audience of economists in Frankfurt that the bank stood ready to do more: | Meanwhile the ECB’s chief economist, Peter Praet, told an audience of economists in Frankfurt that the bank stood ready to do more: |
| If further adverse shocks were to materialise, our measures could be recalibrated once more commensurate with the strength of the headwind. | If further adverse shocks were to materialise, our measures could be recalibrated once more commensurate with the strength of the headwind. |
| 10.27am BST | 10.27am BST |
| 10:27 | 10:27 |
| UK productivity falls at fastest rate since financial crisis | UK productivity falls at fastest rate since financial crisis |
| UK productivity slumped in the final quarter of 2015 according to the latest official figures. | UK productivity slumped in the final quarter of 2015 according to the latest official figures. |
| Output per hour fell 1.2% in the last three months of the year, compared with the previous quarter. It was the biggest drop since the end of 2008, and reversed a 0.6% in the third quarter. | Output per hour fell 1.2% in the last three months of the year, compared with the previous quarter. It was the biggest drop since the end of 2008, and reversed a 0.6% in the third quarter. |
| It will come as a blow to Treasury officials and policymakers at the Bank of England, who have been scratching their heads over Britain’s poor productivity performance and hoping for a turnaround. | It will come as a blow to Treasury officials and policymakers at the Bank of England, who have been scratching their heads over Britain’s poor productivity performance and hoping for a turnaround. |
| UK productivity growth has lagged that of most major economies since the financial crisis, and last month the Office for Budget Responsibility (the government’s independent forecaster) revised down its forecasts. | UK productivity growth has lagged that of most major economies since the financial crisis, and last month the Office for Budget Responsibility (the government’s independent forecaster) revised down its forecasts. |
| Unit labour costs were also lower than expected, up 1.3% in the fourth quarter compared with a year earlier. Economists were expecting a 1.9% increase. | Unit labour costs were also lower than expected, up 1.3% in the fourth quarter compared with a year earlier. Economists were expecting a 1.9% increase. |
| Alan Clarke, economist at Scotiabank, said the data reinforced the view that the Bank of England will not be raising interest rates any time soon. | Alan Clarke, economist at Scotiabank, said the data reinforced the view that the Bank of England will not be raising interest rates any time soon. |
| The market seems to be taking this in its stride, which is understandable. The Brexit vote has tied the BoE’s hands for the time being. If an imminent rate hike was on a knife edge, this data release would have just pushed the hike into the long grass. | The market seems to be taking this in its stride, which is understandable. The Brexit vote has tied the BoE’s hands for the time being. If an imminent rate hike was on a knife edge, this data release would have just pushed the hike into the long grass. |
| But with a rate hike a distant prospect, this release merely confirms the market thinking. If the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee weren’t in a rush to hike rates before, they won’t be after this release. | But with a rate hike a distant prospect, this release merely confirms the market thinking. If the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee weren’t in a rush to hike rates before, they won’t be after this release. |
| UK productivity falls at the fastest rate since the global crisis. Via @BruceReuters pic.twitter.com/tHjc3eYKzn | UK productivity falls at the fastest rate since the global crisis. Via @BruceReuters pic.twitter.com/tHjc3eYKzn |
| 10.00am BST | 10.00am BST |
| 10:00 | 10:00 |
| Over in Germany, the latest Daimler AGM took a rather unsavoury turn when two shareholders had a row over the buffet sausages and police were called. | Over in Germany, the latest Daimler AGM took a rather unsavoury turn when two shareholders had a row over the buffet sausages and police were called. |
| The free food at company AGMs has long been a draw for shareholders but Daimler could not have predicted events as the luxury car maker announced a record dividend. | The free food at company AGMs has long been a draw for shareholders but Daimler could not have predicted events as the luxury car maker announced a record dividend. |
| Things turned nasty when one shareholder apparently accused another of being too greedy by attempting to pocket several sausages. | Things turned nasty when one shareholder apparently accused another of being too greedy by attempting to pocket several sausages. |
| The sausages in question were Saitenwuerschtle, from the carmaker’s home state of Baden Wuerttemberg. Daimler provided 12,500 sausages for about 5,500 shareholders who attended the meeting, so just over two per person. | The sausages in question were Saitenwuerschtle, from the carmaker’s home state of Baden Wuerttemberg. Daimler provided 12,500 sausages for about 5,500 shareholders who attended the meeting, so just over two per person. |
| When one shareholder was caught wrapping up several sausages to apparently take away with him, he was confronted by another and a shouting match began, resulting in the police being called. | When one shareholder was caught wrapping up several sausages to apparently take away with him, he was confronted by another and a shouting match began, resulting in the police being called. |
| Daimler board chairman Manfred Bischoff confirmed the incident. | Daimler board chairman Manfred Bischoff confirmed the incident. |
| We had to call the police to settle the matter. | We had to call the police to settle the matter. |
| Either we need more sausages or we drop the sausages completely. | Either we need more sausages or we drop the sausages completely. |
| #sausagegate | #sausagegate |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 10.05am BST | at 10.05am BST |
| 9.18am BST | 9.18am BST |
| 09:18 | 09:18 |
| A little more on the new M&S boss Steve Rowe. | A little more on the new M&S boss Steve Rowe. |
| Making his debut with an underwhelming trading update, he told journalists he wants to take a straightforward approach to how he leads the business. | Making his debut with an underwhelming trading update, he told journalists he wants to take a straightforward approach to how he leads the business. |
| For starters, he his getting rid of the term “general merchandise” (replacing it with “clothing and home”), which can only be a good thing. | For starters, he his getting rid of the term “general merchandise” (replacing it with “clothing and home”), which can only be a good thing. |
| Steve Rowe on using term 'clothing and home' rather than general merchandise: 'We're going to start referring to GM in customer langauage.' | Steve Rowe on using term 'clothing and home' rather than general merchandise: 'We're going to start referring to GM in customer langauage.' |
| Rowe might be new to the top job but he first started working for M&S at the Croydon store on Saturdays, aged 15. | Rowe might be new to the top job but he first started working for M&S at the Croydon store on Saturdays, aged 15. |
| Read our piece - From Saturday boy to big boss - here. | Read our piece - From Saturday boy to big boss - here. |
| Despite Bolland's supposed focus on GM, sales have fallen again at M&S. Let's see if Rowe can do better. Need to simplify product offering. | Despite Bolland's supposed focus on GM, sales have fallen again at M&S. Let's see if Rowe can do better. Need to simplify product offering. |
| Blower’s retail cartoon: New M&S boss Rowe targets fashion turnaround https://t.co/VnZvMeqndb (£) | Blower’s retail cartoon: New M&S boss Rowe targets fashion turnaround https://t.co/VnZvMeqndb (£) |
| Reviewing M&S clothing is like watching schoolboy football. All the Sub-brands chasing the same ball, Rowe needs to get his whistle out. | Reviewing M&S clothing is like watching schoolboy football. All the Sub-brands chasing the same ball, Rowe needs to get his whistle out. |
| 8.48am BST | 8.48am BST |
| 08:48 | 08:48 |
| New M&S boss: clothing performance 'unsatisfactory' | New M&S boss: clothing performance 'unsatisfactory' |
| Steve Rowe, the man newly in charge of Marks & Spencer, has given his first trading update since taking over the top job on Saturday. | Steve Rowe, the man newly in charge of Marks & Spencer, has given his first trading update since taking over the top job on Saturday. |
| Clothing sales fell again over the most recent quarter (they have risen in only quarter over the past five years). Rowe said the performance of its clothing business was “unsatisfactory” and turning it around was his “number one priority”. | Clothing sales fell again over the most recent quarter (they have risen in only quarter over the past five years). Rowe said the performance of its clothing business was “unsatisfactory” and turning it around was his “number one priority”. |
| Like-for-like clothing and home sales were down by 2.7% in the 13 weeks to 26 March. | Like-for-like clothing and home sales were down by 2.7% in the 13 weeks to 26 March. |
| Nevertheless M&S is one of the top risers on the FTSE this morning, with shares up 1.9% at 428.4p, because the City was expecting a bigger drop in clothing sales. | Nevertheless M&S is one of the top risers on the FTSE this morning, with shares up 1.9% at 428.4p, because the City was expecting a bigger drop in clothing sales. |
| Food sales were flat over the quarter. Read our full story on the trading update here. | Food sales were flat over the quarter. Read our full story on the trading update here. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 9.02am BST | at 9.02am BST |
| 8.29am BST | 8.29am BST |
| 08:29 | 08:29 |
| European markets open higher | European markets open higher |
| Europe’s main markets are mostly up this morning, boosted by the Fed’s signal that it is in no immediate hurry to raise rates again. | Europe’s main markets are mostly up this morning, boosted by the Fed’s signal that it is in no immediate hurry to raise rates again. |
| Brent crude oil prices rose above $40 a barrel earlier but are now down a touch at $39.82. | Brent crude oil prices rose above $40 a barrel earlier but are now down a touch at $39.82. |
| 8.12am BST | 8.12am BST |
| 08:12 | 08:12 |
| Now for some reaction to those Fed minutes. As always its a case of reading between the lines and much of the language is open to interpretation. | Now for some reaction to those Fed minutes. As always its a case of reading between the lines and much of the language is open to interpretation. |
| Steve Murphy, US economist at Capital Economics: | Steve Murphy, US economist at Capital Economics: |
| Although the minutes acknowledge that a few officials were ready to raise interest rates in April, many thought that the Fed should precede more cautiously, in particular because of worries about global downside risks. | Although the minutes acknowledge that a few officials were ready to raise interest rates in April, many thought that the Fed should precede more cautiously, in particular because of worries about global downside risks. |
| At this stage, the chances of an April rate hike are very slim, but we expect the Fed will resume raising rates in June. | At this stage, the chances of an April rate hike are very slim, but we expect the Fed will resume raising rates in June. |
| By that time, fears surrounding global risks should have faded and further increases in core inflation will have convinced officials that the pick-up is in fact genuine. Thereafter, we expect the fed funds rate will end this year at between 1.00% and 1.25%. | By that time, fears surrounding global risks should have faded and further increases in core inflation will have convinced officials that the pick-up is in fact genuine. Thereafter, we expect the fed funds rate will end this year at between 1.00% and 1.25%. |
| Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK: | Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK: |
| As suspected the US Federal Reserve’s FOMC minutes painted a picture of a divided central bank, but what was clear is that [while] there is some appetite to pull the trigger on a rate rise in April it is a sentiment that is not shared amongst the majority of the voting members on the committee. | As suspected the US Federal Reserve’s FOMC minutes painted a picture of a divided central bank, but what was clear is that [while] there is some appetite to pull the trigger on a rate rise in April it is a sentiment that is not shared amongst the majority of the voting members on the committee. |
| “A range of views” was expressed about the likelihood of a move in April, but it is clear that policymakers are concerned about the volatility that has rippled through markets for a good part of this year. | “A range of views” was expressed about the likelihood of a move in April, but it is clear that policymakers are concerned about the volatility that has rippled through markets for a good part of this year. |
| Reading between the lines this makes the prospect of a move in April unlikely and hasn’t shifted the dial higher on the odds of a June hike either, with markets assigning a 19.6% probability of a move before the publication of the minutes, and a 17.6% probability afterwards. | Reading between the lines this makes the prospect of a move in April unlikely and hasn’t shifted the dial higher on the odds of a June hike either, with markets assigning a 19.6% probability of a move before the publication of the minutes, and a 17.6% probability afterwards. |
| Mkts got no clue from Fed min's. Not as dovish as Yellen but still plus&minuses. Next hike priced for Dec, as before pic.twitter.com/0N6z2FrUd9 | Mkts got no clue from Fed min's. Not as dovish as Yellen but still plus&minuses. Next hike priced for Dec, as before pic.twitter.com/0N6z2FrUd9 |
| Fed minutes summary. pic.twitter.com/CFPJTzLtCO | Fed minutes summary. pic.twitter.com/CFPJTzLtCO |
| 7.58am BST | 7.58am BST |
| 07:58 | 07:58 |
| US Fed: April rate rise unlikely | US Fed: April rate rise unlikely |
| Good morning and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets and business. | Good morning and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets and business. |
| The US Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates at its April meeting, the latest minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) suggest. | The US Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates at its April meeting, the latest minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) suggest. |
| Chaired by Janet Yellen, the committee was clearly divided. Some members judged improving data suggested the US economy was ready for another rate hike. Others were more wary, fearful of recent trends in the global economy where risks appear to be mounting. | Chaired by Janet Yellen, the committee was clearly divided. Some members judged improving data suggested the US economy was ready for another rate hike. Others were more wary, fearful of recent trends in the global economy where risks appear to be mounting. |
| Overall, the tone was cautious: | Overall, the tone was cautious: |
| A number of participants judged that the headwinds restraining growth and holding down the neutral rate of interest were likely to subside only slowly. In light of this expectation and their assessment of the risks to the economic outlook, several expressed the view that a cautious approach to raising rates would be prudent or noted their concern that raising the target range as soon as April would signal a sense of urgency they did not think appropriate. | A number of participants judged that the headwinds restraining growth and holding down the neutral rate of interest were likely to subside only slowly. In light of this expectation and their assessment of the risks to the economic outlook, several expressed the view that a cautious approach to raising rates would be prudent or noted their concern that raising the target range as soon as April would signal a sense of urgency they did not think appropriate. |
| In contrast, some other participants indicated that an increase in the target range at the Committee’s next meeting might well be warranted if the incoming economic data remained consistent with their expectations for moderate growth in output, further strengthening of the labor market, and inflation rising to 2% over the medium term. | In contrast, some other participants indicated that an increase in the target range at the Committee’s next meeting might well be warranted if the incoming economic data remained consistent with their expectations for moderate growth in output, further strengthening of the labor market, and inflation rising to 2% over the medium term. |
| US markets rose: | US markets rose: |
| Markets this morning await the latest minutes from the European Central Bank. | Markets this morning await the latest minutes from the European Central Bank. |