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Lessons from the Dutch – watch the dangerous fringe Lessons from the Dutch – watch the dangerous fringe
(about 20 hours later)
Few cared about Dutch voters rejecting the EU’s trade deal with Ukraine. The turnout was pitiful. The result may not even force the Dutch government to veto the agreement. In any case, the anti-EU campaign was led by figures conventional opinion regards as irrelevant: the originally Maoist Dutch socialist party and Geert Wilders’s Party for Freedom, a genuinely Islamophobic outfit, to use the much-abused label accurately for once.Few cared about Dutch voters rejecting the EU’s trade deal with Ukraine. The turnout was pitiful. The result may not even force the Dutch government to veto the agreement. In any case, the anti-EU campaign was led by figures conventional opinion regards as irrelevant: the originally Maoist Dutch socialist party and Geert Wilders’s Party for Freedom, a genuinely Islamophobic outfit, to use the much-abused label accurately for once.
Connoisseurs of the grotesque filed the referendum in that bulging folder of moments when the far left and far right fell into a clammy embrace. Britain’s anti-Europeans said it showed Britain could leave the EU in June. Everyone else made the mistake of concentrating on more pressing concerns.Connoisseurs of the grotesque filed the referendum in that bulging folder of moments when the far left and far right fell into a clammy embrace. Britain’s anti-Europeans said it showed Britain could leave the EU in June. Everyone else made the mistake of concentrating on more pressing concerns.
They should have paid attention. The continent’s extremists could be our future. A low turnout, with the old more likely to vote than the young, and Britain could lose its place in Europe, as it lost its empire, in a “fit of absent-mindedness”. The Dutch did indeed show how Leave could win, but they also showed the disasters that would follow. They should have paid attention. The continent’s extremists could be our future. A low turnout, with the old more likely to vote than the young, and Britain could lose its place in Europe, as it acquired its empire, in a “fit of absent-mindedness”. The Dutch did indeed show how Leave could win, but they also showed the disasters that would follow.
The British right is offering contradictory arguments that make no sense to anyone who is not trapped in their small and small-minded world. The first is that Britain will not suffer if it leaves the EU. The second is that all patriots should join them in the struggle to get out. It never occurs to them that true patriots would not count the pennies and worry about the economic consequences of leaving. True patriots would say: “We don’t care if living standards fall. This isn’t a sordid haggle about money. We want sovereignty and self-determination: freedoms you cannot put a price on.”The British right is offering contradictory arguments that make no sense to anyone who is not trapped in their small and small-minded world. The first is that Britain will not suffer if it leaves the EU. The second is that all patriots should join them in the struggle to get out. It never occurs to them that true patriots would not count the pennies and worry about the economic consequences of leaving. True patriots would say: “We don’t care if living standards fall. This isn’t a sordid haggle about money. We want sovereignty and self-determination: freedoms you cannot put a price on.”
But just as hardly any Scottish nationalists say they want Scotland to be independent regardless of the cost, so hardly any British nationalists say Britain must leave the EU and to hell with the economic consequences. Instead, they fool the public and themselves.But just as hardly any Scottish nationalists say they want Scotland to be independent regardless of the cost, so hardly any British nationalists say Britain must leave the EU and to hell with the economic consequences. Instead, they fool the public and themselves.
Their story goes that a Britain freed from the EU will set out across the blue oceans to trade with the world beyond. They never explain why we cannot trade with the rest of the world already. Germany, after all, had bilateral trade with China worth €154bn in 2014, while remaining the most committed of EU members. As for the EU itself, they continue, we can escape its burdens but carry on enjoying its benefits. We will not have to accept EU immigrants if we want free trade, as Norway and Switzerland do. Nor will we have to pay into the EU budget, as Norway and Switzerland do too. Like a Cosmo superwoman we can have it all: free trade, no tariffs, no immigrants, no regulations and no bills.Their story goes that a Britain freed from the EU will set out across the blue oceans to trade with the world beyond. They never explain why we cannot trade with the rest of the world already. Germany, after all, had bilateral trade with China worth €154bn in 2014, while remaining the most committed of EU members. As for the EU itself, they continue, we can escape its burdens but carry on enjoying its benefits. We will not have to accept EU immigrants if we want free trade, as Norway and Switzerland do. Nor will we have to pay into the EU budget, as Norway and Switzerland do too. Like a Cosmo superwoman we can have it all: free trade, no tariffs, no immigrants, no regulations and no bills.
“Lie” is too weak a word for such myth-making, and the ignored Dutch referendum exposes its falsehood. It was about nothing as grand as the exit of one of Europe’s most powerful countries. The Dutch voted on a paltry agreement to facilitate the EU’s trade with war-torn Ukraine.“Lie” is too weak a word for such myth-making, and the ignored Dutch referendum exposes its falsehood. It was about nothing as grand as the exit of one of Europe’s most powerful countries. The Dutch voted on a paltry agreement to facilitate the EU’s trade with war-torn Ukraine.
Imagine how the governments and peoples of Europe will react to the “we want it all” demands of a departing Britain. If an energised minority triumphs over the apathetic majority, EU countries will have many opportunities to take their revenge. Britain’s exit terms may need the approval of only a majority of EU members. If, as seems almost certain, the negotiations go on for more than two years, the deal covers tax, foreign policy and policing, or Britain wants the associate status of a Norway, then every EU country would have to ratify it.Imagine how the governments and peoples of Europe will react to the “we want it all” demands of a departing Britain. If an energised minority triumphs over the apathetic majority, EU countries will have many opportunities to take their revenge. Britain’s exit terms may need the approval of only a majority of EU members. If, as seems almost certain, the negotiations go on for more than two years, the deal covers tax, foreign policy and policing, or Britain wants the associate status of a Norway, then every EU country would have to ratify it.
They all have their own versions of Geert Wilders to deal with. If their governments give Britain generous terms, their own nativist rights could say that leaving the EU was painless. As for a “having it all” Brexit deal going to a vote in the Netherlands and other European countries, you only have to guess how British voters would react to foreigners being given a better deal than they received, to know the result in advance.They all have their own versions of Geert Wilders to deal with. If their governments give Britain generous terms, their own nativist rights could say that leaving the EU was painless. As for a “having it all” Brexit deal going to a vote in the Netherlands and other European countries, you only have to guess how British voters would react to foreigners being given a better deal than they received, to know the result in advance.
Lying to your fellow citizens is not patriotic. Nor is tipping them into years of debilitating disputes with their neighbours. Nor, come to that, is aiding hostile foreign powers.Lying to your fellow citizens is not patriotic. Nor is tipping them into years of debilitating disputes with their neighbours. Nor, come to that, is aiding hostile foreign powers.
The minority who voted in the Dutch referendum knew little about the Ukrainian war. They wanted to attack their government and Brussels bureaucrats. Whatever their motives, it remains the case that the selfish and parochial citizens of a western democracy destroyed the hopes of Ukrainians, who have paid in blood in their struggle against Russian domination.The minority who voted in the Dutch referendum knew little about the Ukrainian war. They wanted to attack their government and Brussels bureaucrats. Whatever their motives, it remains the case that the selfish and parochial citizens of a western democracy destroyed the hopes of Ukrainians, who have paid in blood in their struggle against Russian domination.
If they were too thoughtless to know what they were doing, their leaders knew all too well. Putin has spent years courting the European far left and far right. For years too, conventional opinion has regarded his alliance-building as another sideshow. Who cared if Jeremy Corbyn was a regular, uncritical guest on Russian propaganda networks? He was just a Labour backbencher. Or if Nigel Farage described Putin as the world leader he most admired? He couldn’t even win a seat in parliament. Why report on Seumas Milne kissing Putin’s ring at conferences on the Black Sea? He was just an obscure Guardian columnist.If they were too thoughtless to know what they were doing, their leaders knew all too well. Putin has spent years courting the European far left and far right. For years too, conventional opinion has regarded his alliance-building as another sideshow. Who cared if Jeremy Corbyn was a regular, uncritical guest on Russian propaganda networks? He was just a Labour backbencher. Or if Nigel Farage described Putin as the world leader he most admired? He couldn’t even win a seat in parliament. Why report on Seumas Milne kissing Putin’s ring at conferences on the Black Sea? He was just an obscure Guardian columnist.
Putin was smarter. He understood what conventional wisdom never grasps: today’s fringe becomes tomorrow’s mainstream. Putin has welcomed his admirers from the European left and pumped money into Marine Le Pen’s Front National in France. His investment is coming good.Putin was smarter. He understood what conventional wisdom never grasps: today’s fringe becomes tomorrow’s mainstream. Putin has welcomed his admirers from the European left and pumped money into Marine Le Pen’s Front National in France. His investment is coming good.
Why supposed leftists are allying with an imperialist and ultra-conservative Kremlin is a question for another day. But the far right’s updating of the Hitler-Stalin pact makes sense. Putin wants to weaken Europe so it cannot impose sanctions on his crime gang and provide an alternative to his autocracy.Why supposed leftists are allying with an imperialist and ultra-conservative Kremlin is a question for another day. But the far right’s updating of the Hitler-Stalin pact makes sense. Putin wants to weaken Europe so it cannot impose sanctions on his crime gang and provide an alternative to his autocracy.
Against the west’s belief in individual choice and human rights, he has offered himself as the defender of Christian culture, heterosexual marriage, law and order and tradition. The refugee crisis and Islamist terrorism have given the far right multiple opportunities to take up Putin’s themes and cast itself as the true defender of Europe’s traditions.Against the west’s belief in individual choice and human rights, he has offered himself as the defender of Christian culture, heterosexual marriage, law and order and tradition. The refugee crisis and Islamist terrorism have given the far right multiple opportunities to take up Putin’s themes and cast itself as the true defender of Europe’s traditions.
Its arguments are as mendacious as you would expect. Marine Le Pen derides the EU as an “anti-democratic monster” while praising the anti-democratic Putin. But the arguments still work. Fringe pro-Putin groups are achieving real power in parliaments across Europe. Boris Johnson has taken note and has taken to praising the Russian mafia boss.Its arguments are as mendacious as you would expect. Marine Le Pen derides the EU as an “anti-democratic monster” while praising the anti-democratic Putin. But the arguments still work. Fringe pro-Putin groups are achieving real power in parliaments across Europe. Boris Johnson has taken note and has taken to praising the Russian mafia boss.
As always, where the fringe leads, the mainstream follows. Britain’s fringe is leading us to abandon our friends and do the bidding of our enemies. All in the name of patriotism.As always, where the fringe leads, the mainstream follows. Britain’s fringe is leading us to abandon our friends and do the bidding of our enemies. All in the name of patriotism.