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| John Kasich Sees Path to Nomination Despite Low Delegate Count | John Kasich Sees Path to Nomination Despite Low Delegate Count |
| (about 5 hours later) | |
| He received fewer votes in one state than a candidate who was no longer in the race. He has not added a single delegate since March 15. And outside of his home state — the only one he has won to date — he has been the top vote-getter in just four counties. | He received fewer votes in one state than a candidate who was no longer in the race. He has not added a single delegate since March 15. And outside of his home state — the only one he has won to date — he has been the top vote-getter in just four counties. |
| Gov. John Kasich of Ohio has performed so abysmally in the Republican presidential primary that his curious insistence on remaining in the race has made him into a can’t-take-a-hint punch line. | Gov. John Kasich of Ohio has performed so abysmally in the Republican presidential primary that his curious insistence on remaining in the race has made him into a can’t-take-a-hint punch line. |
| As the race for the Republican presidential nomination turns toward a series of northeastern and Mid-Atlantic states this month, even Mr. Kasich’s own supporters concede that he must quickly demonstrate relevance if he is to have even a long-shot hope of emerging as an alternative candidate at a contested convention this summer. | As the race for the Republican presidential nomination turns toward a series of northeastern and Mid-Atlantic states this month, even Mr. Kasich’s own supporters concede that he must quickly demonstrate relevance if he is to have even a long-shot hope of emerging as an alternative candidate at a contested convention this summer. |
| “Funny things can happen at conventions, but John has got to start picking up some delegates,” said former Representative Thomas M. Davis III, a Virginia Republican who is co-hosting a fund-raiser for Mr. Kasich this week. “He’s got to walk in there with at least 230 or so delegates, some sort of critical mass in hand.” | “Funny things can happen at conventions, but John has got to start picking up some delegates,” said former Representative Thomas M. Davis III, a Virginia Republican who is co-hosting a fund-raiser for Mr. Kasich this week. “He’s got to walk in there with at least 230 or so delegates, some sort of critical mass in hand.” |
| Mr. Kasich, a two-term governor who previously served 18 years in Congress, did not compete in many early-voting states. He has just 143 delegates. That is about 600 fewer than Donald J. Trump and nearly 400 fewer than Senator Ted Cruz of Texas. It is even less than what Senator Marco Rubio of Florida still claims, and he dropped out of the campaign nearly a month ago (after which point he still drew more votes than Mr. Kasich in Arizona, thanks partly to early and absentee votes). | Mr. Kasich, a two-term governor who previously served 18 years in Congress, did not compete in many early-voting states. He has just 143 delegates. That is about 600 fewer than Donald J. Trump and nearly 400 fewer than Senator Ted Cruz of Texas. It is even less than what Senator Marco Rubio of Florida still claims, and he dropped out of the campaign nearly a month ago (after which point he still drew more votes than Mr. Kasich in Arizona, thanks partly to early and absentee votes). |
| Mr. Kasich has repeatedly found reasons to explain away losses and remain in the race, but the conditions now are about as favorable as he is likely to find: Mr. Trump has suffered a series of self-inflicted wounds that have solidified resistance among his many skeptics. Mr. Cruz has shown little ability to appeal to heavily secular Republican primary voters in the Northeast. And the only states voting through the end of April are filled with the sort of pragmatic centrists that Mr. Kasich has targeted since entering the race last year. | Mr. Kasich has repeatedly found reasons to explain away losses and remain in the race, but the conditions now are about as favorable as he is likely to find: Mr. Trump has suffered a series of self-inflicted wounds that have solidified resistance among his many skeptics. Mr. Cruz has shown little ability to appeal to heavily secular Republican primary voters in the Northeast. And the only states voting through the end of April are filled with the sort of pragmatic centrists that Mr. Kasich has targeted since entering the race last year. |
| If he is not competitive in New York, which votes next week, or in Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maryland, Delaware and Pennsylvania, where voters go to the polls on April 26, it is not clear where he will fare any better. | If he is not competitive in New York, which votes next week, or in Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maryland, Delaware and Pennsylvania, where voters go to the polls on April 26, it is not clear where he will fare any better. |
| “We have to be a real factor in those places,” said Tom Rath, a New Hampshire-based supporter of Mr. Kasich. | “We have to be a real factor in those places,” said Tom Rath, a New Hampshire-based supporter of Mr. Kasich. |
| But Mr. Kasich is still trying to keep expectations low, resisting the suggestion that he will have to eventually win a state other than Ohio to become his party’s nominee. | But Mr. Kasich is still trying to keep expectations low, resisting the suggestion that he will have to eventually win a state other than Ohio to become his party’s nominee. |
| “I need to continue to gather delegates, and that’s what we’re going to do, and go into the convention aggressively with as many delegates as we can muster,” he told reporters in Connecticut last week when asked about the possibility of finding a victory. | “I need to continue to gather delegates, and that’s what we’re going to do, and go into the convention aggressively with as many delegates as we can muster,” he told reporters in Connecticut last week when asked about the possibility of finding a victory. |
| Mr. Kasich has drawn sizable crowds in his ventures into upstate New York, and some surveys show him drawing more votes than Mr. Cruz in the state. That could mean he nets more delegates than Mr. Cruz in a state where the second-leading vote-getter in each of the 27 congressional districts receives a delegate, provided the top finisher does not get more than 50 percent of the vote. But the governor is far behind Mr. Trump in the same polls, and he lacks the money to finance a sustained and significant advertising campaign in a state with 10 media markets. | Mr. Kasich has drawn sizable crowds in his ventures into upstate New York, and some surveys show him drawing more votes than Mr. Cruz in the state. That could mean he nets more delegates than Mr. Cruz in a state where the second-leading vote-getter in each of the 27 congressional districts receives a delegate, provided the top finisher does not get more than 50 percent of the vote. But the governor is far behind Mr. Trump in the same polls, and he lacks the money to finance a sustained and significant advertising campaign in a state with 10 media markets. |
| So, facing the prospect of losing to the front-runner in New York and beyond, Mr. Kasich has fashioned a new rationale for going forward: Savvy convention delegates will prove far more receptive to his electability argument than rank-and-file voters. | So, facing the prospect of losing to the front-runner in New York and beyond, Mr. Kasich has fashioned a new rationale for going forward: Savvy convention delegates will prove far more receptive to his electability argument than rank-and-file voters. |
| “These party bosses and ward heelers, you think they want to get skunked in their wards or in their neighborhoods?” he asked in Greece, N.Y., on Saturday, promoting his advantage in hypothetical polls against Hillary Clinton. “Because Cruz and Trump are going to get killed in the fall. I mean, they cannot win.” | “These party bosses and ward heelers, you think they want to get skunked in their wards or in their neighborhoods?” he asked in Greece, N.Y., on Saturday, promoting his advantage in hypothetical polls against Hillary Clinton. “Because Cruz and Trump are going to get killed in the fall. I mean, they cannot win.” |
| In a campaign that has continually defied prediction, Mr. Kasich’s supporters believe that it is worth the risk of embarrassment to see the race into the convention in Cleveland starting on July 18, at which point they believe none of the candidates will enter with the necessary 1,237 delegates needed to clinch the nomination. | In a campaign that has continually defied prediction, Mr. Kasich’s supporters believe that it is worth the risk of embarrassment to see the race into the convention in Cleveland starting on July 18, at which point they believe none of the candidates will enter with the necessary 1,237 delegates needed to clinch the nomination. |
| A lack of success in the primary season will matter less to the delegates than who can win a general election, Mr. Kasich’s advisers argue. | A lack of success in the primary season will matter less to the delegates than who can win a general election, Mr. Kasich’s advisers argue. |
| “When the Super Bowl goes into overtime, does it matter what happened in the first quarter?” asked John Weaver, Mr. Kasich’s chief strategist. | “When the Super Bowl goes into overtime, does it matter what happened in the first quarter?” asked John Weaver, Mr. Kasich’s chief strategist. |
| The theory, say Kasich backers, is that the governor could be a compromise pick, somebody who is not as polarizing as the two leading candidates but is also not a “white knight” foisted upon the party by elites. | The theory, say Kasich backers, is that the governor could be a compromise pick, somebody who is not as polarizing as the two leading candidates but is also not a “white knight” foisted upon the party by elites. |
| “He’d be something between Trump and Cruz who divide the party and have real electability problems, and an outside candidate who has not run for the nomination and is going to be perceived as illegitimate by delegates,” said Vin Weber, a former Minnesota congressman who is assisting Mr. Kasich’s convention effort. | “He’d be something between Trump and Cruz who divide the party and have real electability problems, and an outside candidate who has not run for the nomination and is going to be perceived as illegitimate by delegates,” said Vin Weber, a former Minnesota congressman who is assisting Mr. Kasich’s convention effort. |
| But other Republicans not affiliated with any campaign are skeptical that, if the convention goes to multiple ballots and increasingly desperate delegates begin to look for somebody who can unite the party, they would limit their options only to those who ran this year or stayed in the race through the convention. | But other Republicans not affiliated with any campaign are skeptical that, if the convention goes to multiple ballots and increasingly desperate delegates begin to look for somebody who can unite the party, they would limit their options only to those who ran this year or stayed in the race through the convention. |
| “Why would you take Miss Ohio when you can take Miss America?” is how Alex Castellanos, a veteran Republican strategist, put it. | “Why would you take Miss Ohio when you can take Miss America?” is how Alex Castellanos, a veteran Republican strategist, put it. |
| But even if the delegates do come to Mr. Kasich should Mr. Trump and Mr. Cruz fail to amass a majority at the convention, it is uncertain that the governor can even be nominated. Republicans instituted a rule at their 2012 convention stating that a candidate must win a majority of the delegates in eight states to be placed in nomination, a standard Mr. Kasich is unlikely to reach. | But even if the delegates do come to Mr. Kasich should Mr. Trump and Mr. Cruz fail to amass a majority at the convention, it is uncertain that the governor can even be nominated. Republicans instituted a rule at their 2012 convention stating that a candidate must win a majority of the delegates in eight states to be placed in nomination, a standard Mr. Kasich is unlikely to reach. |
| “The only path that exists relies on the front-running candidates faltering and/or the rules being suspended or rewritten,” said Danny Diaz, a Republican strategist who was Jeb Bush’s campaign manager, noting that “hope is not a strategy.” | “The only path that exists relies on the front-running candidates faltering and/or the rules being suspended or rewritten,” said Danny Diaz, a Republican strategist who was Jeb Bush’s campaign manager, noting that “hope is not a strategy.” |
| It is possible that the rule makers at this year’s convention lower the eight-state threshold or do away with it. And some of Mr. Kasich’s backers believe that the rule about a candidate’s name being placed in nomination is entirely ceremonial, arguing that state delegations can vote on roll calls for any candidate they choose. | |
| But even Mr. Kasich’s most devoted supporters recognize that they are up against tall odds. | |
| “I’m not saying we have a nine-out-of-10 chance to pull this off, or even a five-of-10 chance,” Mr. Rath said. “But it’s at least three and it may be trending four.” | “I’m not saying we have a nine-out-of-10 chance to pull this off, or even a five-of-10 chance,” Mr. Rath said. “But it’s at least three and it may be trending four.” |