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No Paul Ryan Means Still More Anger No Paul Ryan Means Still More Anger
(about 7 hours later)
If Paul Ryan really meant what he said, the Republican Party has lost its best chance to take the White House and maintain control of the Senate.If Paul Ryan really meant what he said, the Republican Party has lost its best chance to take the White House and maintain control of the Senate.
“Let me be clear: I do not want nor will I accept the nomination for our party,” Ryan told reporters on Tuesday afternoon at a news conference held in the Republican National Committee’s headquarters on Capitol Hill.“Let me be clear: I do not want nor will I accept the nomination for our party,” Ryan told reporters on Tuesday afternoon at a news conference held in the Republican National Committee’s headquarters on Capitol Hill.
Ryan’s statement drew immediate comparison to William Tecumseh Sherman’s famous declaration 132 years ago, “I will not accept if nominated and will not serve if elected,” and to Lyndon B. Johnson’s televised statement on March 31, 1968: “I shall not seek, and I will not accept, the nomination of my party for another term as your president.”Ryan’s statement drew immediate comparison to William Tecumseh Sherman’s famous declaration 132 years ago, “I will not accept if nominated and will not serve if elected,” and to Lyndon B. Johnson’s televised statement on March 31, 1968: “I shall not seek, and I will not accept, the nomination of my party for another term as your president.”
Even after Ryan’s declaration, there were some political figures who still consider Ryan a possible nominee. Harold Ickes, a top adviser to Priorities USA, the super PAC supporting Clinton, envisaged a scenario in which Ryan would find himself having difficulty turning down the nomination.Even after Ryan’s declaration, there were some political figures who still consider Ryan a possible nominee. Harold Ickes, a top adviser to Priorities USA, the super PAC supporting Clinton, envisaged a scenario in which Ryan would find himself having difficulty turning down the nomination.
“He does not want to be seen as derailing any candidate. He plays ball, and I suspect this is the art of playing ball,” Ickes said:“He does not want to be seen as derailing any candidate. He plays ball, and I suspect this is the art of playing ball,” Ickes said:
Without Ryan at the top of the ticket, the Republican Party faces the likelihood of disaster on Nov. 8, assuming that either Donald Trump or Ted Cruz is the nominee.Without Ryan at the top of the ticket, the Republican Party faces the likelihood of disaster on Nov. 8, assuming that either Donald Trump or Ted Cruz is the nominee.
What makes Ryan’s statement painful to Republican leaders and a welcome relief to Democrats is that there is a consensus in both parties that Ryan is far better equipped to capitalize on Hillary Clinton’s vulnerabilities than either Trump or Cruz — both of whom have negative ratings that come close to or exceed Clinton’s.What makes Ryan’s statement painful to Republican leaders and a welcome relief to Democrats is that there is a consensus in both parties that Ryan is far better equipped to capitalize on Hillary Clinton’s vulnerabilities than either Trump or Cruz — both of whom have negative ratings that come close to or exceed Clinton’s.
Since late December 2010, when Clinton’s favorable rating reached a high point of 61.8 percent, with a negative rating of 32.4 percent, public opinion has shifted radically.Since late December 2010, when Clinton’s favorable rating reached a high point of 61.8 percent, with a negative rating of 32.4 percent, public opinion has shifted radically.
The most recent data shows her unfavorable rating at 55 percent and her positive rating at 40 percent.The most recent data shows her unfavorable rating at 55 percent and her positive rating at 40 percent.
Clinton’s negatives are exceeded only those of Donald Trump, who now holds the record for the highest negatives of a presidential candidate at 64 unfavorable to 30 positive. Clinton’s negatives are exceeded only by those of Donald Trump, who now holds the record for the highest negatives of a presidential candidate at 64 unfavorable to 30 positive.
Ted Cruz’s negatives are only slightly lower than Clinton’s at 53.4.Ted Cruz’s negatives are only slightly lower than Clinton’s at 53.4.
The exceptionally hostile views of all three leading candidates gave momentum — at least until Tuesday afternoon — to speculation among Republican leaders about a Ryan nomination. They do not want to blow the opportunity of a winnable contest. That their speculation can no longer focus on Ryan does not mean that their speculation will end.The exceptionally hostile views of all three leading candidates gave momentum — at least until Tuesday afternoon — to speculation among Republican leaders about a Ryan nomination. They do not want to blow the opportunity of a winnable contest. That their speculation can no longer focus on Ryan does not mean that their speculation will end.
At the same time, all the talk split members of the Republican establishment into two camps: those who hoped to see Ryan or some other noncandidate nominated and those who see any attempt to nominate Ryan or another noncandidate as a rejection of the 14.6 million votes cast for Trump and Cruz so far. Between them, Trump and Cruz have won 55 percent of the votes in Republican primaries and caucuses.At the same time, all the talk split members of the Republican establishment into two camps: those who hoped to see Ryan or some other noncandidate nominated and those who see any attempt to nominate Ryan or another noncandidate as a rejection of the 14.6 million votes cast for Trump and Cruz so far. Between them, Trump and Cruz have won 55 percent of the votes in Republican primaries and caucuses.
Karl Rove, who ran both of George W. Bush’s successful presidential campaigns, would clearly like his party to pick someone other than Trump or Cruz at the Republican convention in Cleveland in July.Karl Rove, who ran both of George W. Bush’s successful presidential campaigns, would clearly like his party to pick someone other than Trump or Cruz at the Republican convention in Cleveland in July.
In a radio interview, on March 31, Rove said “a fresh face might be the thing that could give us a chance to turn this election and win in November against Hillary.”In a radio interview, on March 31, Rove said “a fresh face might be the thing that could give us a chance to turn this election and win in November against Hillary.”
Without naming anyone, Rove described such a candidate as someone who “has been battle tested, and has strong conservative principles and the ability to articulate them.” If the party picks a nominee who “has those convictions that they can express in a compelling way, we could come out of the convention in relatively strong position.” It certainly sounded as though Rove had Ryan in mind.Without naming anyone, Rove described such a candidate as someone who “has been battle tested, and has strong conservative principles and the ability to articulate them.” If the party picks a nominee who “has those convictions that they can express in a compelling way, we could come out of the convention in relatively strong position.” It certainly sounded as though Rove had Ryan in mind.
Senator Orrin Hatch of Utah signaled his support for Ryan, telling reporters on April 4:Senator Orrin Hatch of Utah signaled his support for Ryan, telling reporters on April 4:
Hatch added that he has “absolute confidence in him as a human being and as a leader. He’s a very, very fine human being.”Hatch added that he has “absolute confidence in him as a human being and as a leader. He’s a very, very fine human being.”
The Ryan news conference Tuesday provided some vindication to critics of Rove and Hatch and their desire for the Republican nominee to emerge not from the original batch of candidates but from elsewhere.The Ryan news conference Tuesday provided some vindication to critics of Rove and Hatch and their desire for the Republican nominee to emerge not from the original batch of candidates but from elsewhere.
As John Feehrey, a Republican lobbyist and party operative, told me,As John Feehrey, a Republican lobbyist and party operative, told me,
Rich Lowry, editor of the anti-Trump National Review, believes it would be politically suicidal, given the level of support the two have received in the primaries and caucuses thus far, for the Republican Party to nominate anyone other than Trump or Cruz.Rich Lowry, editor of the anti-Trump National Review, believes it would be politically suicidal, given the level of support the two have received in the primaries and caucuses thus far, for the Republican Party to nominate anyone other than Trump or Cruz.
Republican voters “are not interested in someone who’s embedded in the party’s leadership, they’re not interested in someone who is donor friendly, and who’s soft on immigration,” Lowry declared on Meet the Press on April 10th. “It would be one thing if Ryan was a compromise between Cruz and Trump. He’s a rejection of both of them and of 70 percent of Republican voters.” Republican voters “are not interested in someone who’s embedded in the party’s leadership, they’re not interested in someone who is donor friendly, and who’s soft on immigration,” Lowry declared on “Meet the Press” on April 10. “It would be one thing if Ryan was a compromise between Cruz and Trump. He’s a rejection of both of them and of 70 percent of Republican voters.”
Another conservative adamantly opposed to Trump is Glenn Beck. Appearing on the same show as Lowry, Beck said:Another conservative adamantly opposed to Trump is Glenn Beck. Appearing on the same show as Lowry, Beck said:
In order for any white knight to have a chance of ending up with a draft nomination, the first ballot at the Republican convention in Cleveland would have to be inconclusive — with neither Trump nor Cruz winning a majority of the 2472 delegates. In order for any white knight to have a chance of ending up with a draft nomination, the first ballot at the Republican convention in Cleveland would have to be inconclusive — with neither Trump nor Cruz winning a majority of the 2,472 delegates.
In subsequent balloting, in order to get another candidate’s name placed in nomination under current party rule 40b — “Each candidate for nomination for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States shall demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of eight (8) or more states, severally, before the presentation of the name of that candidate for nomination” — supporters of a player to be named later would need signed petitions from a majority of delegates in eight states, which is no easy task because many (although not all) delegates are committed to one of the candidates who ran in the primaries.In subsequent balloting, in order to get another candidate’s name placed in nomination under current party rule 40b — “Each candidate for nomination for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States shall demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of eight (8) or more states, severally, before the presentation of the name of that candidate for nomination” — supporters of a player to be named later would need signed petitions from a majority of delegates in eight states, which is no easy task because many (although not all) delegates are committed to one of the candidates who ran in the primaries.
A factor suggesting that Ryan’s Shermanesque statement may be subject to revision is the way he repeatedly rejected pleas to run for House Speaker last October, before he turned around and accepted the post. On Tuesday, Ryan dismissed the analogy as comparing “apples and oranges.” A factor suggesting that Ryan’s Shermanesque statement may be subject to revision is the way he repeatedly rejected pleas to run for House speaker last October, before he turned around and accepted the post. On Tuesday, Ryan dismissed the analogy as comparing “apples and oranges.”
As recently as April 7, Ryan had fueled discussion that he was interested in a presidential bid by posting a video that for all intents and purposes looks like a presidential campaign commercial. The video shows Ryan speaking to House interns, with musical crescendos and shots taken from at least six different camera angles.As recently as April 7, Ryan had fueled discussion that he was interested in a presidential bid by posting a video that for all intents and purposes looks like a presidential campaign commercial. The video shows Ryan speaking to House interns, with musical crescendos and shots taken from at least six different camera angles.
Giving sustenance to those who persist in pinning their hopes on a last minute Ryan draft is the Speaker’s own message, which could easily form the foundation of a reluctant acceptance speech in Cleveland: Giving sustenance to those who persist in pinning their hopes on a last minute Ryan draft is the speaker’s own message, which could easily form the foundation of a reluctant acceptance speech in Cleveland:
Speculation about a Ryan candidacy had been intensely worrisome to Democrats, which is why his disavowal on Tuesday was such welcome news in Democratic precincts.Speculation about a Ryan candidacy had been intensely worrisome to Democrats, which is why his disavowal on Tuesday was such welcome news in Democratic precincts.
Take Peter Hart, the dean of Democratic pollsters, who has been running a series of voter focus groups for the Annenberg Public Policy Center. If the 2016 presidential election “were a Clinton-Ryan race,” he said, before Ryan’s latest announcement, “you would have to say Ryan would be the favorite.” As Hart put it later, “this field is not satisfactory to the voters. Voters are looking for a choice other than Hillary Clinton.”Take Peter Hart, the dean of Democratic pollsters, who has been running a series of voter focus groups for the Annenberg Public Policy Center. If the 2016 presidential election “were a Clinton-Ryan race,” he said, before Ryan’s latest announcement, “you would have to say Ryan would be the favorite.” As Hart put it later, “this field is not satisfactory to the voters. Voters are looking for a choice other than Hillary Clinton.”
In a background conversation, a source who is intimately familiar with the inner workings of the Clinton campaign — and who insisted on anonymity in order to be able to discuss the prospect of a Clinton-Ryan election candidly — was blunt: “Ryan would kill her.”In a background conversation, a source who is intimately familiar with the inner workings of the Clinton campaign — and who insisted on anonymity in order to be able to discuss the prospect of a Clinton-Ryan election candidly — was blunt: “Ryan would kill her.”
Steve Rosenthal, a former political director of the AFL-CIO and now head of the Democratic consulting firm The Organizing Group, argued that the divisive primary campaign between Trump and Cruz has set the stage for an alternative candidate like Ryan, even if it won’t be him: “Anybody who comes along now projecting a more moderate image will be viewed as a savior.” Steve Rosenthal, a former political director of the AFL-CIO and now head of the Democratic consulting firm the Organizing Group, argued that the divisive primary campaign between Trump and Cruz has set the stage for an alternative candidate like Ryan, even if it won’t be him: “Anybody who comes along now projecting a more moderate image will be viewed as a savior.”
Republicans continue to exhibit extraordinary division over who their best nominee might be, particularly for April of a presidential election year. This conflict plays out across intraparty boundaries but often occurs within individuals, too. No one illustrates these internal contradictions more colorfully than Alex Castellanos, a media consultant. Castellanos worked on behalf of such candidates as Bob Dole, George W. Bush, Jeb Bush and Mitt Romney. Most famously (or notoriously), he produced the “white hands” ad for Senator Jesse Helms in 1990, when Helms was running for re-election against Harvey Gantt, the black mayor of Charlotte.Republicans continue to exhibit extraordinary division over who their best nominee might be, particularly for April of a presidential election year. This conflict plays out across intraparty boundaries but often occurs within individuals, too. No one illustrates these internal contradictions more colorfully than Alex Castellanos, a media consultant. Castellanos worked on behalf of such candidates as Bob Dole, George W. Bush, Jeb Bush and Mitt Romney. Most famously (or notoriously), he produced the “white hands” ad for Senator Jesse Helms in 1990, when Helms was running for re-election against Harvey Gantt, the black mayor of Charlotte.
Six weeks ago, Castellanos wrote:Six weeks ago, Castellanos wrote:
On April 3, Castellanos thought better of his earlier assessment and produced a sharp critique of all the remaining Republican candidates:On April 3, Castellanos thought better of his earlier assessment and produced a sharp critique of all the remaining Republican candidates:
Castellanos was particularly dismissive of Cruz:Castellanos was particularly dismissive of Cruz:
Then Castellanos wound things up with a pitch for an alternative to those currently running: “Why not wipe the slate clean and go for what delegates really want,” someone who comes in unsullied by the primary battle.Then Castellanos wound things up with a pitch for an alternative to those currently running: “Why not wipe the slate clean and go for what delegates really want,” someone who comes in unsullied by the primary battle.
If no dark horse Republican candidate emerges and if Bernie Sanders does not catch up to Hillary Clinton, the election will feature either Clinton vs. Trump or Clinton vs. Cruz. In that case, the next president is likely to win not because he or she is the most loved, but because he or she is the least hated.If no dark horse Republican candidate emerges and if Bernie Sanders does not catch up to Hillary Clinton, the election will feature either Clinton vs. Trump or Clinton vs. Cruz. In that case, the next president is likely to win not because he or she is the most loved, but because he or she is the least hated.