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| Darfur vote is Omar al-Bashir’s attempt to come in from the cold | Darfur vote is Omar al-Bashir’s attempt to come in from the cold |
| (5 months later) | |
| The way Sudanese president Omar al-Bashir has talked about the current referendum in Darfur, you’d be forgiven for thinking the results will actually mean something for the people living there. | The way Sudanese president Omar al-Bashir has talked about the current referendum in Darfur, you’d be forgiven for thinking the results will actually mean something for the people living there. |
| “It is the people of Darfur who choose whether they want states or one region and we are holding this referendum so that no one else can come and say we want this or that,” said Bashir, midway through a controversial campaigning tour through all five of the states that make up the war-torn territory. | “It is the people of Darfur who choose whether they want states or one region and we are holding this referendum so that no one else can come and say we want this or that,” said Bashir, midway through a controversial campaigning tour through all five of the states that make up the war-torn territory. |
| As if, amidst the war and the refugee camps and the permanent humanitarian suffering the people of Darfur really care about the administrative structure of a local government that has, at its best, completely failed to provide for them, and at its worst enthusiastically oppressed them. | As if, amidst the war and the refugee camps and the permanent humanitarian suffering the people of Darfur really care about the administrative structure of a local government that has, at its best, completely failed to provide for them, and at its worst enthusiastically oppressed them. |
| The referendum, to determine whether Darfur should remain divided into five smaller states or be reconstituted as one large one, is a small but significant step on the peace plan agreed in 2011 in Doha. | The referendum, to determine whether Darfur should remain divided into five smaller states or be reconstituted as one large one, is a small but significant step on the peace plan agreed in 2011 in Doha. |
| Or it would be significant, if Darfur’s major rebel groups had signed up to the plan, and if any of the other major provisions of the plan had been implemented. | Or it would be significant, if Darfur’s major rebel groups had signed up to the plan, and if any of the other major provisions of the plan had been implemented. |
| But as a spokesperson for the opposition Justice and Equality Movement told reporters: “The priority was the return of the displaced to their villages. Whatever the result, the referendum means nothing.” | But as a spokesperson for the opposition Justice and Equality Movement told reporters: “The priority was the return of the displaced to their villages. Whatever the result, the referendum means nothing.” |
| In this context, it’s hardly surprising that most rebel groups have boycotted the referendum, and have urged their supporters to do the same. | In this context, it’s hardly surprising that most rebel groups have boycotted the referendum, and have urged their supporters to do the same. |
| If Bashir had been serious about implementing the peace plan, he might have stopped forces loyal to him from fighting rebel groups. But as of the end of March, about 138,000 people had been newly displaced by hostilities, with the government preventing United Nations peacekeepers from doing anything about it. | If Bashir had been serious about implementing the peace plan, he might have stopped forces loyal to him from fighting rebel groups. But as of the end of March, about 138,000 people had been newly displaced by hostilities, with the government preventing United Nations peacekeepers from doing anything about it. |
| Human Rights Watch has also revealed, in its most recent report on Darfur, how government forces were implicated in systematic abuses of civilians, including the rape and torture of young women. | Human Rights Watch has also revealed, in its most recent report on Darfur, how government forces were implicated in systematic abuses of civilians, including the rape and torture of young women. |
| This referendum is not about the people of Darfur. The president, a pariah for so long, wants to come in from the cold | This referendum is not about the people of Darfur. The president, a pariah for so long, wants to come in from the cold |
| So this referendum is not about the people of Darfur, it’s about Bashir. The Sudanese president, a pariah for so long, wants to come in from the cold. | So this referendum is not about the people of Darfur, it’s about Bashir. The Sudanese president, a pariah for so long, wants to come in from the cold. |
| Wanted by the international criminal court on charges of genocide – relating to his role in the conflict in Darfur – Bashir has been subject to financial sanctions, a travel ban, and the imposition of peacekeepers, the United Nations and African Union Mission in Darfur (Unamid). | Wanted by the international criminal court on charges of genocide – relating to his role in the conflict in Darfur – Bashir has been subject to financial sanctions, a travel ban, and the imposition of peacekeepers, the United Nations and African Union Mission in Darfur (Unamid). |
| But last year, the South African government risked its own reputation and relationship with the ICC to fete Bashir at an African Union summit in July. He received a standing ovation from his counterparts there, an action interpreted by many as a welcoming back of Bashir into the continental fold. | But last year, the South African government risked its own reputation and relationship with the ICC to fete Bashir at an African Union summit in July. He received a standing ovation from his counterparts there, an action interpreted by many as a welcoming back of Bashir into the continental fold. |
| Then towards the end of the year, relations with the United States began to thaw, with Sudan being removed from a watchlist of countries deemed to be facilitating the financing of terrorism. | Then towards the end of the year, relations with the United States began to thaw, with Sudan being removed from a watchlist of countries deemed to be facilitating the financing of terrorism. |
| Bashir’s Sudan was being rehabilitated, even as he strolled to victory in presidential elections characterised by widespread intimidation. | Bashir’s Sudan was being rehabilitated, even as he strolled to victory in presidential elections characterised by widespread intimidation. |
| More good news came soon after, with the sudden announcement that South Africa would withdraw its troops from Unamid. “Whatever Zuma’s intentions in ordering the withdrawal ... its effect will surely be to help Bashir and hurt the long-suffering Darfuris,” wrote Peter Fabricius for the Institute for Security Studies when it was announced. | More good news came soon after, with the sudden announcement that South Africa would withdraw its troops from Unamid. “Whatever Zuma’s intentions in ordering the withdrawal ... its effect will surely be to help Bashir and hurt the long-suffering Darfuris,” wrote Peter Fabricius for the Institute for Security Studies when it was announced. |
| Fabricius added: “Bashir probably hopes that when the South African troops pull out, other troop-contributing countries will follow suit, collapsing the mission altogether.” | Fabricius added: “Bashir probably hopes that when the South African troops pull out, other troop-contributing countries will follow suit, collapsing the mission altogether.” |
| Sure enough, diplomatic gossip in the corridors of Addis Ababa is that the African Union – a crucial component of Unamid – is losing its stomach for the fight in Darfur, and is angling for a withdrawal. This is where the Darfur referendum comes in: if Bashir can make it look like he’s doing his bit to achieve peace, even while all independent evidence suggests otherwise, then this increases the chances of a full Unamid withdrawal. | Sure enough, diplomatic gossip in the corridors of Addis Ababa is that the African Union – a crucial component of Unamid – is losing its stomach for the fight in Darfur, and is angling for a withdrawal. This is where the Darfur referendum comes in: if Bashir can make it look like he’s doing his bit to achieve peace, even while all independent evidence suggests otherwise, then this increases the chances of a full Unamid withdrawal. |
| But there has been some pushback against the credibility of the vote. In a statement from the US state department, a spokesman said: “If held under current rules and conditions, a referendum on the status of Darfur cannot be considered a credible expression of the will of the people of Darfur. Moreover, it will undermine the peace process now under way.” | But there has been some pushback against the credibility of the vote. In a statement from the US state department, a spokesman said: “If held under current rules and conditions, a referendum on the status of Darfur cannot be considered a credible expression of the will of the people of Darfur. Moreover, it will undermine the peace process now under way.” |
| On the surface, the referendum may look like a rare opportunity for the region’s long-suffering citizens to express their will, and an important step on the long road to peace. Not so fast. As usual, the Sudanese president has an ulterior motive – and, for now, he will probably emerge as the big winner. | On the surface, the referendum may look like a rare opportunity for the region’s long-suffering citizens to express their will, and an important step on the long road to peace. Not so fast. As usual, the Sudanese president has an ulterior motive – and, for now, he will probably emerge as the big winner. |
| A version of this article first appeared on The Daily Maverick | A version of this article first appeared on The Daily Maverick |
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