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| Erdogan and Merkel’s Comic Comeuppance | Erdogan and Merkel’s Comic Comeuppance |
| (about 7 hours later) | |
| BERLIN — THOUGH it’s a fact often overlooked by the rest of the world, Germany is a funny place — seriously. Long before Jon Stewart and Samantha Bee redefined topical American humor, comedians here perfected the art of sharp political satire. | BERLIN — THOUGH it’s a fact often overlooked by the rest of the world, Germany is a funny place — seriously. Long before Jon Stewart and Samantha Bee redefined topical American humor, comedians here perfected the art of sharp political satire. |
| For the most part, German politicians get the joke. But now politics and comedy are colliding in a new way — a collision that exposes the tragicomedy of modern European politics in a way that no late-night monologue ever could. | For the most part, German politicians get the joke. But now politics and comedy are colliding in a new way — a collision that exposes the tragicomedy of modern European politics in a way that no late-night monologue ever could. |
| A few weeks ago, the German TV program “extra3” satirized Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in song, which prompted the Turkish government to call in the German ambassador to Ankara for a lecture, presumably, on its views regarding the limits of free speech. | A few weeks ago, the German TV program “extra3” satirized Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in song, which prompted the Turkish government to call in the German ambassador to Ankara for a lecture, presumably, on its views regarding the limits of free speech. |
| Not long after, the comedian Jan Böhmermann, satirizing the ensuing debate over what is allowed in satire, read a poem on his own show, “Neo Magazin Royale.” The poem, which he read in front of a Turkish flag, was about Mr. Erdogan and, among other things, what he might do with goats. It was a blunt provocation with an intelligent twist. | |
| In response, Turkey demandied that the German government allow the prosecution of Mr. Böhmermann under an obscure law against insulting a foreign head of state. In the meantime, President Erdogan has filed a complaint under a separate German law, which does not require the German government’s consent in order to open a formal investigation against the satirist. | |
| The reason Germany hasn’t immediately rebuffed Turkey is the recent agreement by Chancellor Angela Merkel and Europe with Ankara to stanch the flow of refugees entering the Continent. Under the accord, those caught crossing the sea between Turkey and the Greek islands are now sent back in exchange for a payment of three billion euros and Europe’s commitment to take in up to 72,000 additional Syrian refugees. | The reason Germany hasn’t immediately rebuffed Turkey is the recent agreement by Chancellor Angela Merkel and Europe with Ankara to stanch the flow of refugees entering the Continent. Under the accord, those caught crossing the sea between Turkey and the Greek islands are now sent back in exchange for a payment of three billion euros and Europe’s commitment to take in up to 72,000 additional Syrian refugees. |
| In other words, what seemed like a policy breakthrough has now become a political albatross. Refuse to prosecute Mr. Böhmermann, and Turkey could pull out of the deal. Go after him, and risk public upheaval at home — not to mention the sullying of your own liberal virtues. The clown has shown the powerful just how powerless they can be. | In other words, what seemed like a policy breakthrough has now become a political albatross. Refuse to prosecute Mr. Böhmermann, and Turkey could pull out of the deal. Go after him, and risk public upheaval at home — not to mention the sullying of your own liberal virtues. The clown has shown the powerful just how powerless they can be. |
| The refugee deal was supposed to solve everything: a relatively humanitarian answer that would tamp down far-right sentiment in Germany and appease Turkey, at little cost to the chancellor. It was a model of political realism — with a touch of political cynicism. As Chancellor Merkel saw it, the alternative to sending back the refugees was political inertia at best, political cataclysm at worst. | The refugee deal was supposed to solve everything: a relatively humanitarian answer that would tamp down far-right sentiment in Germany and appease Turkey, at little cost to the chancellor. It was a model of political realism — with a touch of political cynicism. As Chancellor Merkel saw it, the alternative to sending back the refugees was political inertia at best, political cataclysm at worst. |
| But the Böhmermann affair shows how wrong she was. The deal is already, obviously, a failure. | But the Böhmermann affair shows how wrong she was. The deal is already, obviously, a failure. |
| First, there’s the calculation that bowing to the interests of the Turkish government was a fair price for tamping down the far right. But national support for the right-wing Alternative for Germany party remains strong, despite decreasing numbers of refugees. Ms. Merkel has won some respite from critics within her own party, but the deal has opened a new front, with the center left attacking her for acquiescing to Mr. Erdogan’s demands. | First, there’s the calculation that bowing to the interests of the Turkish government was a fair price for tamping down the far right. But national support for the right-wing Alternative for Germany party remains strong, despite decreasing numbers of refugees. Ms. Merkel has won some respite from critics within her own party, but the deal has opened a new front, with the center left attacking her for acquiescing to Mr. Erdogan’s demands. |
| Nor does the deal work as policy. There are still hundreds of thousands of refugees in Europe and many more on the way, and still there is no agreement on how to share the burden across the Continent. Meanwhile, human traffickers are beginning to build new routes over Libya to Italy. | Nor does the deal work as policy. There are still hundreds of thousands of refugees in Europe and many more on the way, and still there is no agreement on how to share the burden across the Continent. Meanwhile, human traffickers are beginning to build new routes over Libya to Italy. |
| But what the Böhmermann affair shows most impressively is that the deal was struck for the wrong reasons at the wrong time. It was a panic reaction. Ms. Merkel was under immense political pressure; her party, the Christian Democrats, had just suffered setbacks in three state elections. Other European leaders are facing similar problems. | But what the Böhmermann affair shows most impressively is that the deal was struck for the wrong reasons at the wrong time. It was a panic reaction. Ms. Merkel was under immense political pressure; her party, the Christian Democrats, had just suffered setbacks in three state elections. Other European leaders are facing similar problems. |
| Europe came to the table quarreling and desperate. It came not as a partner, but as a beggar. Now Mr. Erdogan continues to treat Europe as such. Political realists love to cite game theory to justify their decisions; had they cracked open their textbooks for a refresher, they could have easily predicted this outcome. | Europe came to the table quarreling and desperate. It came not as a partner, but as a beggar. Now Mr. Erdogan continues to treat Europe as such. Political realists love to cite game theory to justify their decisions; had they cracked open their textbooks for a refresher, they could have easily predicted this outcome. |
| Of course, the alternative cannot be to ignore Turkey; the refugee crisis has moved the world’s conflicts to our doorsteps. Germany — and Europe — need Turkey. And Germany and Europe will probably have to strike more than one deal with Turkey in the future, and will have to cooperate with autocratic states on many other issues. Even the center-right Christian Democrats, who have mostly blocked Turkey’s path to the European Union, even when Mr. Erdogan was still on a fairly liberal course, are finally recognizing this reality, which is for the good. | Of course, the alternative cannot be to ignore Turkey; the refugee crisis has moved the world’s conflicts to our doorsteps. Germany — and Europe — need Turkey. And Germany and Europe will probably have to strike more than one deal with Turkey in the future, and will have to cooperate with autocratic states on many other issues. Even the center-right Christian Democrats, who have mostly blocked Turkey’s path to the European Union, even when Mr. Erdogan was still on a fairly liberal course, are finally recognizing this reality, which is for the good. |
| But the moral of this story about being less moralist is this: If you are divided and weak, it doesn’t make sense to put on a strongman act in foreign policy. Let’s hope that the clown not only humbles, but also enlightens the mighty this time. | But the moral of this story about being less moralist is this: If you are divided and weak, it doesn’t make sense to put on a strongman act in foreign policy. Let’s hope that the clown not only humbles, but also enlightens the mighty this time. |