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| New York primary live: Trump wins as Clinton and Sanders battle it out | |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 2.06am BST | |
| 02:06 | |
| More on Donald Trump’s victory: The billionaire Republican frontrunner was widely expected to take New York, his home state and the headquarters of his real estate and media empire, but the night is far from over for Texas senator Ted Cruz and Ohio governor John Kasich, who are holding out hope that they will have been able to chip away enough at his support in targeted congressional districts to prevent a full sweep of the state’s 95 delegates. | |
| Should Trump win 50% or more of the vote in New York, he will take home all of the state’s 14 at-large delegates. For every congressional district he wins an absolute majority in, he’ll take home three additional delegates each. Should he fail to clear the 50% threshold, however, he will lose one of the three delegates to the second-place finisher - at this point, likely Kasich. | |
| Updated | |
| at 2.07am BST | |
| 2.01am BST | |
| 02:01 | |
| Donald Trump wins New York Republican primary | |
| Well, that was quick! | |
| Seconds after the polls closed in the Empire State, the Associated Press - as well as CNN, MSNBC, and most of the other networks - have called the New York Republican primary for billionaire frontrunner Donald Trump. | |
| 1.59am BST | |
| 01:59 | |
| Lauren Gambino | |
| Hillary Clinton is holding what she hopes will be a victory party in the ballroom of the Sheraton in Midtown because nothing says thank you New York quite like a night out in Times Square. | |
| The ballroom is decorated with Hillary campaign signs and milling with chipper supporters wearing stickers and buttons. Among them is Whitney Peterson, a sales representative, who crossed state lines from New Jersey to hear Clinton speak. | |
| “I just wanted to be a part of history if she does become the first female president of the United States,” Peterson said, before quickly correcting herself: “Or when she does.” | |
| Peterson, who will vote in the New Jersey primary, said she supported Barack Obama in 2008, but believes this year is Clinton’s time. “We’ve just both grown a lot since then,” she said. | |
| At around 8:30, a band began to play covers of singles straight off the iTunes top pop singles list starting with Pharrell’s Uptown Funk. Playing at the moment of filing: Taylor Swift’s Shake It Off – which she’s hoping won’t be necessary after all is said and done tonight. | |
| 1.50am BST | |
| 01:50 | |
| Texas senator Ted Cruz, likely anticipating a bit of a thumping in the New York Republican primary, is giving remarks in Philadelphia tonight. The Guardian’s Ben Jacobs has captured an early-night concession by Cruz, who told the assembled supporters and press that Donald Trump would win tonight’s primary. | |
| Cruz preemptively concedes that Trump will win New York tonight | |
| “This is the year of the outsider and I am an outsider; Bernie Sanders is an outsider,” Cruz said, followed later by this comment that is still leaving us scratching our heads: | |
| Ted Cruz: America has always been her best when she is lying down with her back on the mat | |
| Full context: An uncharacteristically positive and hopeful tone in Cruz’s speech, which have heretofore been more high-octane than uplifting. | |
| “You may have been knocked down, but America has always been best when she it lying down with her back on the mat, and the crowd has given the final count,” Cruz said. “It is time as us for a nation to shake it off and be who we were destined to be. Don’t let anyone try to convince you otherwise.” | |
| “Here is the truth: You don’t need me, or any politician,” Cruz concluded. “But we do need each other, all of us. Coming together as one, as we the people, because not only do we say yes we can, beginning here and now we pledge, to each and every one of us, yes we will.” | |
| Updated | |
| at 1.54am BST | |
| 1.44am BST | |
| 01:44 | |
| Good news for New York City voters: CNN will announce its projections of who will win tonight’s primary contests using the LED display on the Empire State Building, with different colors corresponding to the victor. | |
| The Empire State Building, once the tallest building in the world, will turn dark blue if Hillary Clinton is projected as the winner, and light blue if Bernie Sanders is. On the Republican side, a Donald Trump victory will mean a dark, Sauron-esque red color, an unlikely victory by Ted Cruz would turn the top of the tower “coral,” in Jake Tapper’s words, and a victory by Ohio governor John Kasich would make the tower purple. | |
| When CNN projects winners tonight, the Empire State building will light up https://t.co/1a8SwBgnNk #NYPrimary https://t.co/5CUP1HNPKu | |
| 1.29am BST | 1.29am BST |
| 01:29 | 01:29 |
| Ben Jacobs has an interesting historical throwback to the 1992 Democratic presidential primary, the last time that New York played much of a role in choosing a party nominee: | Ben Jacobs has an interesting historical throwback to the 1992 Democratic presidential primary, the last time that New York played much of a role in choosing a party nominee: |
| #TBT to the last time the New York primary matted and the #gaffe that was #gamechange https://t.co/OgjydG9ZuA pic.twitter.com/VRm58eVmbT | #TBT to the last time the New York primary matted and the #gaffe that was #gamechange https://t.co/OgjydG9ZuA pic.twitter.com/VRm58eVmbT |
| 1.23am BST | 1.23am BST |
| 01:23 | 01:23 |
| Mona Chalabi | Mona Chalabi |
| Who will win in New York? Mona Chalabi has a primer on historic voting trends in the Empire State, expected results tonight and what their impact will be on Wednesday and beyond. | Who will win in New York? Mona Chalabi has a primer on historic voting trends in the Empire State, expected results tonight and what their impact will be on Wednesday and beyond. |
| Current polling averages suggest a clear win for Democrat Hillary Clinton, who is 12 percentage points ahead of rival Bernie Sanders. In the Republican race, the frontrunner has an even larger lead – Donald Trump is 30 percentage pointsahead in the polls, according to polling averages. | Current polling averages suggest a clear win for Democrat Hillary Clinton, who is 12 percentage points ahead of rival Bernie Sanders. In the Republican race, the frontrunner has an even larger lead – Donald Trump is 30 percentage pointsahead in the polls, according to polling averages. |
| There is, however, good reason to think that the final numbers won’t exactly mirror those predictions. A poll for CBS News conducted by YouGov earlier this month found that 14% of New York Democratic voters were open to changing their minds about their preferred candidates. And, although the former secretary of state’s average lead has been quite consistent since the start of the month, individual polls have reached very different conclusions about the gap between her and her leftwing opponent – ranging between six and 18 percentage points in polls this month alone. | There is, however, good reason to think that the final numbers won’t exactly mirror those predictions. A poll for CBS News conducted by YouGov earlier this month found that 14% of New York Democratic voters were open to changing their minds about their preferred candidates. And, although the former secretary of state’s average lead has been quite consistent since the start of the month, individual polls have reached very different conclusions about the gap between her and her leftwing opponent – ranging between six and 18 percentage points in polls this month alone. |
| However, there are other factors that might make those polling numbers less flexible. The deadline for switching party registration in New York was 193 days ago on 9 October – other states have far shorter deadlines. This is likely to be a large drawback for Sanders, who draws so much of his support from voters who identify as independent (in the states that have held primaries so far, as much as 50% of Sanders voters have said they are independent in exit polls). So, although the Vermont senator’s support has risen considerably over the past month, that won’t necessarily translate into additional votes for the candidate. | However, there are other factors that might make those polling numbers less flexible. The deadline for switching party registration in New York was 193 days ago on 9 October – other states have far shorter deadlines. This is likely to be a large drawback for Sanders, who draws so much of his support from voters who identify as independent (in the states that have held primaries so far, as much as 50% of Sanders voters have said they are independent in exit polls). So, although the Vermont senator’s support has risen considerably over the past month, that won’t necessarily translate into additional votes for the candidate. |
| Related: Who will win in New York? Your cheat sheet for the presidential primary | Related: Who will win in New York? Your cheat sheet for the presidential primary |
| 1.07am BST | 1.07am BST |
| 01:07 | 01:07 |
| One hour before polls close across New York | One hour before polls close across New York |
| Scott Bixby | Scott Bixby |
| Good evening! For those just joining us, we’re less than an hour away from polls closing across the Empire State, where for the first time in a generation, a pair of close national races means that New York’s presidential primary election actually matters. | Good evening! For those just joining us, we’re less than an hour away from polls closing across the Empire State, where for the first time in a generation, a pair of close national races means that New York’s presidential primary election actually matters. |
| Both Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton and Republican frontrunner Donald Trump are heavily favored to win the night, with home-state advantages coupled with campaign infrastructures concentrated in New York City. As both campaigns have become less about nebulous “momentum” than bareknuckle boxing for delegate loyalty, however, New York presents possible pickup opportunities for other candidates - or, at least, chances to stymie the frontrunners’ path to the nomination. | Both Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton and Republican frontrunner Donald Trump are heavily favored to win the night, with home-state advantages coupled with campaign infrastructures concentrated in New York City. As both campaigns have become less about nebulous “momentum” than bareknuckle boxing for delegate loyalty, however, New York presents possible pickup opportunities for other candidates - or, at least, chances to stymie the frontrunners’ path to the nomination. |
| Vermont senator Bernie Sanders’ fingers are tightly crossed for a better-than-expected finish in New York driven by young voters who have turned out by the thousands to see Sanders speak in recent weeks, but difficulty registering as Democrats in time may complicate that plan. He and Clinton will be duking it out over New York’s 247 Democratic delegates, to be awarded proportionally. | Vermont senator Bernie Sanders’ fingers are tightly crossed for a better-than-expected finish in New York driven by young voters who have turned out by the thousands to see Sanders speak in recent weeks, but difficulty registering as Democrats in time may complicate that plan. He and Clinton will be duking it out over New York’s 247 Democratic delegates, to be awarded proportionally. |
| On the Republican side, an anticipated thumping by the billionaire Republican frontrunner in his home state could spell a major delegate victory for a candidate who has faced a string of losses to Texas senator Ted Cruz as of late. If Trump can capture 50% or more of the vote statewide, he’ll automatically walk away with all 14 of the state’s at-large delegates. But if he wants to sweep New York, he’ll need to win each of the state’s 27 congressional districts with a similar 50% or more threshold to win each district’s three delegates. | On the Republican side, an anticipated thumping by the billionaire Republican frontrunner in his home state could spell a major delegate victory for a candidate who has faced a string of losses to Texas senator Ted Cruz as of late. If Trump can capture 50% or more of the vote statewide, he’ll automatically walk away with all 14 of the state’s at-large delegates. But if he wants to sweep New York, he’ll need to win each of the state’s 27 congressional districts with a similar 50% or more threshold to win each district’s three delegates. |
| That’s where Cruz and John Kasich’s plan comes into play: If they succeed in chipping away Trump’s lead to below that threshold, the delegates will be distributed proportionately, blocking Trump’s sweep and taking precious delegates from the only candidate who can feasibly win the necessary 1,237-delegate majority to claim the Republican nomination outright. | That’s where Cruz and John Kasich’s plan comes into play: If they succeed in chipping away Trump’s lead to below that threshold, the delegates will be distributed proportionately, blocking Trump’s sweep and taking precious delegates from the only candidate who can feasibly win the necessary 1,237-delegate majority to claim the Republican nomination outright. |
| Where we are: The Guardian’s crack team of political reporters, commentators and analysts are working across the state to bring you up-to-the-second news from tonight’s primary. Washington bureau chief Dan Roberts will be in the newsroom, along with data queen Mona Chalabi and myself, Scott Bixby. | Where we are: The Guardian’s crack team of political reporters, commentators and analysts are working across the state to bring you up-to-the-second news from tonight’s primary. Washington bureau chief Dan Roberts will be in the newsroom, along with data queen Mona Chalabi and myself, Scott Bixby. |
| Sabrina Siddiqui and Lauren Gambino will be with Clinton at her campaign watch party at the Sheraton New York; David Smith will be partying it up at Trump Tower with its owner; Ben Jacobs will be with Cruz in Philadelphia; Megan Carpentier will be gauging voter reactions and documenting voting problems in the Hudson River valley; and Adam Gabbatt and Amber Jamieson will be pub-crawling their way through watch parties organized by different campaigns and supporters across New York City. | Sabrina Siddiqui and Lauren Gambino will be with Clinton at her campaign watch party at the Sheraton New York; David Smith will be partying it up at Trump Tower with its owner; Ben Jacobs will be with Cruz in Philadelphia; Megan Carpentier will be gauging voter reactions and documenting voting problems in the Hudson River valley; and Adam Gabbatt and Amber Jamieson will be pub-crawling their way through watch parties organized by different campaigns and supporters across New York City. |
| There’s a lot on the line in the Empire State – now let’s get to the results! | There’s a lot on the line in the Empire State – now let’s get to the results! |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 1.21am BST | at 1.21am BST |
| 1.00am BST | 1.00am BST |
| 01:00 | 01:00 |
| Ben Jacobs | Ben Jacobs |
| The Cruz event is taking place in the atrium of the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia where there are big glass windows looking down to Independence Hall. Unlike most traditional election nights there are no televisions and with a scheduled start of 7 PM, it’s likely that the event will wrap before polls close in New York at 9 PM. Cruz is likely to get blown out there and nab only a handful of the Empire State’s 95 delegates. | The Cruz event is taking place in the atrium of the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia where there are big glass windows looking down to Independence Hall. Unlike most traditional election nights there are no televisions and with a scheduled start of 7 PM, it’s likely that the event will wrap before polls close in New York at 9 PM. Cruz is likely to get blown out there and nab only a handful of the Empire State’s 95 delegates. |
| Scene at Cruz election night party pic.twitter.com/uWLwvD8fdx | Scene at Cruz election night party pic.twitter.com/uWLwvD8fdx |
| In the meantime, country music blares in the background as a crowd of 100 await the Texas senator who will have both former candidate Carly Fiorina and Senator Mike Lee as warm up acts. | In the meantime, country music blares in the background as a crowd of 100 await the Texas senator who will have both former candidate Carly Fiorina and Senator Mike Lee as warm up acts. |
| 12.52am BST | 12.52am BST |
| 00:52 | 00:52 |
| Amber Jamieson | Amber Jamieson |
| Bernie Sanders supporters slowly trickled into the “Beers for Bernie” event at Williamsburg bar Battery Harris this evening. Spicy margaritas and hot wings were $2 off to help punters “feel the Bern” (geddit?). | Bernie Sanders supporters slowly trickled into the “Beers for Bernie” event at Williamsburg bar Battery Harris this evening. Spicy margaritas and hot wings were $2 off to help punters “feel the Bern” (geddit?). |
| Dressed in a Brooklyn for Bernie T-shirt, environmental consultant for the film industry, Emellie O’Brien, 27, said she was “optimistic” Sanders could win New York but knew the odds were against him. | Dressed in a Brooklyn for Bernie T-shirt, environmental consultant for the film industry, Emellie O’Brien, 27, said she was “optimistic” Sanders could win New York but knew the odds were against him. |
| Her biggest criticisms were against the state’s voting rules, where Democrats had to be registered six months ago in order to vote, a decision she called “infuriating.” | Her biggest criticisms were against the state’s voting rules, where Democrats had to be registered six months ago in order to vote, a decision she called “infuriating.” |
| “It’s very clear voter suppression. We don’t make it easy to vote in this country,” said O’Brien. | “It’s very clear voter suppression. We don’t make it easy to vote in this country,” said O’Brien. |
| “It’s Al Gore all over again,” said her friend Tom Whidden, 26, from Williamsburg, who’d spent yesterday phone banking for the Vermont senator. | “It’s Al Gore all over again,” said her friend Tom Whidden, 26, from Williamsburg, who’d spent yesterday phone banking for the Vermont senator. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 1.04am BST | at 1.04am BST |
| 12.17am BST | 12.17am BST |
| 00:17 | 00:17 |
| Democratic presidential candidate Senator Bernie Sanders is speaking to supporters at a campaign event in University Park, Pennsylvania as voting continues in the New York primary. | Democratic presidential candidate Senator Bernie Sanders is speaking to supporters at a campaign event in University Park, Pennsylvania as voting continues in the New York primary. |
| Watch it here: | Watch it here: |
| 12.09am BST | 12.09am BST |
| 00:09 | 00:09 |
| Megan Carpentier | Megan Carpentier |
| There was a steady stream of students in and out of the polling station at the State University of New York (Suny) at Albany, but vast numbers of them walked away disappointed at being unable to vote. | There was a steady stream of students in and out of the polling station at the State University of New York (Suny) at Albany, but vast numbers of them walked away disappointed at being unable to vote. |
| For many of them, the problem was that they’d turned in their voter registration or change of address forms to a third-party group on campus running a voter registration drive in March; those forms, turned in to a group the name of which no student could recall, never made it to the county Board of Elections before the registration deadline. | For many of them, the problem was that they’d turned in their voter registration or change of address forms to a third-party group on campus running a voter registration drive in March; those forms, turned in to a group the name of which no student could recall, never made it to the county Board of Elections before the registration deadline. |
| (The Sanders campaign also ran a registration drive, a volunteer and engineering professor said, but their ballots were taken to the board the same day; he couldn’t remember who had run the competing drive either.) | (The Sanders campaign also ran a registration drive, a volunteer and engineering professor said, but their ballots were taken to the board the same day; he couldn’t remember who had run the competing drive either.) |
| “I guess I have to go figure out if my identity’s been stolen,” said one student who came to the campus center excited to cast his first primary ballot and left uncertain about the electoral process. Poll workers encouraged them and others to go to the Board of Elections office directly, where they could petition an on-duty judge for the right to cast an affidavit (i.e., provisional) ballot. | “I guess I have to go figure out if my identity’s been stolen,” said one student who came to the campus center excited to cast his first primary ballot and left uncertain about the electoral process. Poll workers encouraged them and others to go to the Board of Elections office directly, where they could petition an on-duty judge for the right to cast an affidavit (i.e., provisional) ballot. |
| Others who had been registered via voting drives on campus and thought that meant they could vote on campus found themselves facing a choice: get to class on time, or head off campus to vote in their actual polling locations in Albany County. (Sanders volunteers and vote watchers offered any such students free rides, if they didn’t have their own cars. Few seemed to take them up on it.) | Others who had been registered via voting drives on campus and thought that meant they could vote on campus found themselves facing a choice: get to class on time, or head off campus to vote in their actual polling locations in Albany County. (Sanders volunteers and vote watchers offered any such students free rides, if they didn’t have their own cars. Few seemed to take them up on it.) |
| Still some other had ordered absentee ballots but not filled them out, making them ineligible to vote in person, or simply thought they could go to any polling location to cast a ballot, despite being from distant parts of the state. | Still some other had ordered absentee ballots but not filled them out, making them ineligible to vote in person, or simply thought they could go to any polling location to cast a ballot, despite being from distant parts of the state. |
| With all the confusion and the volume of students turned away, the relationship between the poll watchers, many of whom were lawyers volunteering their time, and poll workers were strained. Some workers tried to stymie the watchers’ ability to follow students through the process; others were heard complaining that they were too engaged trying to figure out why so many students were being turned away. And that was before one alleged Board of Election employee dropping off ballots was caught on tape loudly asking poll workers in front of students “Do you think that this is a party JFK would be proud of?” and proclaiming himself “angry” that Sanders was allowed to run as a Democrat. | With all the confusion and the volume of students turned away, the relationship between the poll watchers, many of whom were lawyers volunteering their time, and poll workers were strained. Some workers tried to stymie the watchers’ ability to follow students through the process; others were heard complaining that they were too engaged trying to figure out why so many students were being turned away. And that was before one alleged Board of Election employee dropping off ballots was caught on tape loudly asking poll workers in front of students “Do you think that this is a party JFK would be proud of?” and proclaiming himself “angry” that Sanders was allowed to run as a Democrat. |
| (Both the failure to turn in voter registration forms and electioneering in a polling location would be violations of election law.) | (Both the failure to turn in voter registration forms and electioneering in a polling location would be violations of election law.) |
| Meanwhile, poll workers kept having to turn away disappointed students, encouraging them to check their voter registration status well before the general election and thanking them for trying to vote. | Meanwhile, poll workers kept having to turn away disappointed students, encouraging them to check their voter registration status well before the general election and thanking them for trying to vote. |
| At points in the early evening, it seemed like as many students were being turned away as reported success in casting their ballots. One such student said that most of the students in one of her afternoon classes had been barred from the ballot box for one reason or another; for some, it was their first attempt at all. | At points in the early evening, it seemed like as many students were being turned away as reported success in casting their ballots. One such student said that most of the students in one of her afternoon classes had been barred from the ballot box for one reason or another; for some, it was their first attempt at all. |
| 11.46pm BST | 11.46pm BST |
| 23:46 | 23:46 |
| Are Bernie Sanders supporters spacing on the date? | Are Bernie Sanders supporters spacing on the date? |
| Have spent 20 mins hanging at a Beers for Bernie event in Williamsburg and I am still the first and only attendee here, says bartender. | Have spent 20 mins hanging at a Beers for Bernie event in Williamsburg and I am still the first and only attendee here, says bartender. |