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| Who will win in New York? Your cheat sheet for the presidential primary | Who will win in New York? Your cheat sheet for the presidential primary |
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| New Yorkers will have the chance to choose their preferred presidential candidates in Tuesday’s primary (provided that they have registered to vote). Here’s a primer on historic voting trends, expected results tonight and what their impact will be on Wednesday and beyond. | New Yorkers will have the chance to choose their preferred presidential candidates in Tuesday’s primary (provided that they have registered to vote). Here’s a primer on historic voting trends, expected results tonight and what their impact will be on Wednesday and beyond. |
| Past | Past |
| New York is a firmly blue state – it has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1988. In 2012, a total of 190,515 people voted in the state Republican primary (overwhelmingly, they chose Mitt Romney to be their nominee). That number pales in comparison to the turnout in the 2008 Democratic primary when 1.9 million residents of New York voted (57% of those votes went to Hillary Clinton and 40% went to Barack Obama). | New York is a firmly blue state – it has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1988. In 2012, a total of 190,515 people voted in the state Republican primary (overwhelmingly, they chose Mitt Romney to be their nominee). That number pales in comparison to the turnout in the 2008 Democratic primary when 1.9 million residents of New York voted (57% of those votes went to Hillary Clinton and 40% went to Barack Obama). |
| To understand which factors might affect voting patterns in New York we looked at a few different demographics. In each congressional district we compared the percentage who had voted Democrat in 2012 to the percentage of residents who were non-white, who were making less than $25,000 and who moved into their homes after 2010. Of those, there was the strongest correlation between race and voting patterns (a correlation of 0.9). | To understand which factors might affect voting patterns in New York we looked at a few different demographics. In each congressional district we compared the percentage who had voted Democrat in 2012 to the percentage of residents who were non-white, who were making less than $25,000 and who moved into their homes after 2010. Of those, there was the strongest correlation between race and voting patterns (a correlation of 0.9). |
| Present | Present |
| Current polling averages suggest a clear win for Democrat Hillary Clinton, who is 12 percentage points ahead of rival Bernie Sanders. In the Republican race, the frontrunner has an even larger lead – Donald Trump is 30 percentage points ahead in the polls, according to polling averages. | Current polling averages suggest a clear win for Democrat Hillary Clinton, who is 12 percentage points ahead of rival Bernie Sanders. In the Republican race, the frontrunner has an even larger lead – Donald Trump is 30 percentage points ahead in the polls, according to polling averages. |
| There is, however, good reason to think that the final numbers won’t exactly mirror those predictions. A poll for CBS News conducted by YouGov earlier this month found that 14% of New York Democratic voters were open to changing their minds about their preferred candidates. And, although the former secretary of state’s average lead has been quite consistent since the start of the month, individual polls have reached very different conclusions about the gap between her and her leftwing opponent – ranging between six and 18 percentage points in polls this month alone. | |
| However, there are other factors that might make those polling numbers less flexible. The deadline for switching party registration in New York was 193 days ago on 9 October – other states have far shorter deadlines. This is likely to be a large drawback for Sanders, who draws so much of his support from voters who identify as independent (in the states that have held primaries so far, as much as 50% of Sanders voters have said they are independent in exit polls). So, although the Vermont senator’s support has risen considerably over the past month, that won’t necessarily translate into additional votes for the candidate. | |
| Future | Future |
| Sanders’ poor prospects of becoming the Democratic nominee have been repeatedly stated since the outset of his candidacy. But New York really is a turning point in the race. A total of 291 Democratic delegates will be handed out, in proportion to votes won. If Sanders does win 41% of the vote, as polling predicts, the gap in delegates between himself and Clinton (currently 213 not including superdelegates) will grow so large that the challenge of clinching the nomination becomes even more difficult – especially given that the Vermont senator is currently behind the former secretary of state in states such as Pennsylvania and California, where the upcoming primaries have huge numbers of delegates available. | Sanders’ poor prospects of becoming the Democratic nominee have been repeatedly stated since the outset of his candidacy. But New York really is a turning point in the race. A total of 291 Democratic delegates will be handed out, in proportion to votes won. If Sanders does win 41% of the vote, as polling predicts, the gap in delegates between himself and Clinton (currently 213 not including superdelegates) will grow so large that the challenge of clinching the nomination becomes even more difficult – especially given that the Vermont senator is currently behind the former secretary of state in states such as Pennsylvania and California, where the upcoming primaries have huge numbers of delegates available. |
| The Republican candidates are competing for 95 delegates, which will be distributed on a largely winner-takes-most basis (the rules are complex but Trump needs to get at least 50% of the votes in each district to really clean up statewide). The high likelihood of Trump winning has already been factored in to existing predictions that there will be a contested convention in July as the Republican frontrunner struggles to gain the 1,237 delegates he needs to win outright. | The Republican candidates are competing for 95 delegates, which will be distributed on a largely winner-takes-most basis (the rules are complex but Trump needs to get at least 50% of the votes in each district to really clean up statewide). The high likelihood of Trump winning has already been factored in to existing predictions that there will be a contested convention in July as the Republican frontrunner struggles to gain the 1,237 delegates he needs to win outright. |
| Jan Diehm contributed reporting | Jan Diehm contributed reporting |