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Clinton and Trump wins in New York change little on national scale Clinton and Trump wins in New York change little on national scale
(about 9 hours later)
Now that New York has overwhelmingly backed Donald Trump to be the Republican nominee and Hillary Clinton on the Democratic side, the question many will be asking is how last night’s results will affect national politics in the weeks ahead. Surprising though it may be, the answer, with 96% of the votes counted so far, is “not much”.Now that New York has overwhelmingly backed Donald Trump to be the Republican nominee and Hillary Clinton on the Democratic side, the question many will be asking is how last night’s results will affect national politics in the weeks ahead. Surprising though it may be, the answer, with 96% of the votes counted so far, is “not much”.
Before New York voted, Trump had 755 of the 1,237 delegates needed to win the party’s nomination. After New York had voted, Trump had obtained an extra 89 delegates – considerably more than his nearest rival, Ted Cruz (who had a total of 543 delegates and didn’t win any additional ones last night), but still short of the nomination finish line of 1,237. In short, despite winning around 60% of the vote in New York, Trump still faces the prospect of a contested convention in July, albeit a slightly diminished prospect (betting markets, which predict a Trump win, have barely budged either). Before New York voted, Trump had 755 of the 1,237 delegates needed to win the party’s nomination. After New York had voted, Trump had obtained an extra 89 delegates – considerably more than his nearest rival, Ted Cruz (who had a total of 543 delegates and didn’t win any additional ones last night), but still short of the nomination finish line of 1,237. In short, despite winning about 60% of the vote in New York, Trump still faces the prospect of a contested convention in July, albeit a slightly diminished prospect (betting markets, which predict a Trump win, have barely budged either).
But Trump did do very well in the New York state primary, winning every single county except for New York County (Manhattan). In the end, just six delegates were left available to his rivals; as of this writing, Kasich had won three.But Trump did do very well in the New York state primary, winning every single county except for New York County (Manhattan). In the end, just six delegates were left available to his rivals; as of this writing, Kasich had won three.
The win may well secure Trump’s perceived image as the people’s choice regardless of the fact that a relatively small handful of Americans gave him that boost. As of 1 April, there were only 2.5 million registered Republican voters in the state of New York (less than half the number of registered Democrats), and last night, just 480,000 of those Republicans voted for Trump.The win may well secure Trump’s perceived image as the people’s choice regardless of the fact that a relatively small handful of Americans gave him that boost. As of 1 April, there were only 2.5 million registered Republican voters in the state of New York (less than half the number of registered Democrats), and last night, just 480,000 of those Republicans voted for Trump.
The increasing prospect of Trump and Clinton facing each other in the general election in November will trouble many Republicans. Current polling averages suggest that in a race between Clinton and Cruz, Clinton would win by two percentage points, but in a race against Trump, Clinton could win by nine percentage points. In terms of raw votes, Clinton has won 10.1 million ballots in the primaries held so far and Trump has obtained 8.5 million. The increasing prospect of Trump and Clinton facing each other in the general election in November will trouble many Republicans. Current polling averages suggest that in a race between Clinton and Cruz, Clinton would win by two percentage points, but in a race against Trump, Clinton could win by nine percentage points. In terms of raw votes, Clinton has won 10.1m ballots in the primaries held so far and Trump has obtained 8.5m.
At first glance, it seems as though Bernie Sanders’ fortunes have changed for the worse in New York. The Vermont senator ended the night with 42% of the vote and 104 additional delegates to Clinton’s 135 – a bitter disappointment not only because it comes after seven consecutive primary victories but because Bernie is a born and raised New Yorker. At first glance, it seems as though Bernie Sanders’ fortunes have changed for the worse in New York. The Vermont senator ended the night with 42% of the vote and 104 additional delegates to Clinton’s 135 – a bitter disappointment not only because it comes after seven consecutive primary victories but because Sanders is a born and raised New Yorker.
But the geography of his support had long meant that Sanders would struggle in early primary voting states (largely in the south), fare better in the next round, featuring midwest states, before hitting hurdles again in the remaining states, not least California, where a whopping 546 delegates will be dished out in June and where current polling predicts that Sanders is trailing 10 percentage points behind Clinton.But the geography of his support had long meant that Sanders would struggle in early primary voting states (largely in the south), fare better in the next round, featuring midwest states, before hitting hurdles again in the remaining states, not least California, where a whopping 546 delegates will be dished out in June and where current polling predicts that Sanders is trailing 10 percentage points behind Clinton.
Even discounting superdelegates – the party elites not bound by primary results, among whom Clinton has a large lead – the former secretary of state is ahead of the Vermont senator by about 275 delegates.Even discounting superdelegates – the party elites not bound by primary results, among whom Clinton has a large lead – the former secretary of state is ahead of the Vermont senator by about 275 delegates.
In short, New York hasn’t produced a landslide shift in this primary race, since wins for Trump and Clinton were already assumed in the calculations of the months ahead. Those calculations were always likely to be pretty solid in a state that requires voters to give at least 193 days’ notice if they plan on switching parties before a primary election. What matters now is what voters in the many remaining primaries will decide before the national conventions in July.In short, New York hasn’t produced a landslide shift in this primary race, since wins for Trump and Clinton were already assumed in the calculations of the months ahead. Those calculations were always likely to be pretty solid in a state that requires voters to give at least 193 days’ notice if they plan on switching parties before a primary election. What matters now is what voters in the many remaining primaries will decide before the national conventions in July.