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| Everything you need to know about the Holyrood elections | |
| (about 1 hour later) | |
| How many MSPs sit at Holyrood? | How many MSPs sit at Holyrood? |
| 129 MSPs sit for a five-year fixed term, with one chosen to become presiding officer, equivalent to the Speaker in the House of Commons, who sits on a non-party basis. | 129 MSPs sit for a five-year fixed term, with one chosen to become presiding officer, equivalent to the Speaker in the House of Commons, who sits on a non-party basis. |
| How are they elected? | How are they elected? |
| Scotland’s 4 million voters cast two votes each: a constituency vote to elect 73 MSPs in first-past-the-post contests and a regional list vote to elect 56 more from eight regions, who are selected proportionately. | Scotland’s 4 million voters cast two votes each: a constituency vote to elect 73 MSPs in first-past-the-post contests and a regional list vote to elect 56 more from eight regions, who are selected proportionately. |
| Related: Scottish elections: SNP dominance leaves opponents fighting for second | |
| How does the regional system work? | How does the regional system work? |
| The seven list seats are allocated by party to ensure that the grand total of constituency and list seats in each region is as proportional as possible to each party’s share of the list vote. This uses the D’Hondt system of proportional representation (PR). | The seven list seats are allocated by party to ensure that the grand total of constituency and list seats in each region is as proportional as possible to each party’s share of the list vote. This uses the D’Hondt system of proportional representation (PR). |
| So if one party wins all or the vast majority of the constituency seats in a region, it is very unlikely to receive a list seat unless it also has a substantial proportion of list votes. It is on this vote that the smaller parties hope to make gains. | So if one party wins all or the vast majority of the constituency seats in a region, it is very unlikely to receive a list seat unless it also has a substantial proportion of list votes. It is on this vote that the smaller parties hope to make gains. |
| What do the polls show? | What do the polls show? |
| All the polls give the Scottish National party a commanding and, with only two weeks until polling, unassailable lead over the nearest rival, Scottish Labour. The SNP is at more than 50% and about 21% are opting for Labour. | All the polls give the Scottish National party a commanding and, with only two weeks until polling, unassailable lead over the nearest rival, Scottish Labour. The SNP is at more than 50% and about 21% are opting for Labour. |
| Polling experts believe that puts Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP leader, on course for an even larger majority than the 69 seats won by her predecessor Alex Salmond, in 2011, with the SNP potentially winning 70 seats or more. After winning 37 seats five years ago, Labour is likely to be hit severely, losing up to 15 seats. Some polls put the Tories close behind Labour, threatening a huge upset by coming second. | Polling experts believe that puts Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP leader, on course for an even larger majority than the 69 seats won by her predecessor Alex Salmond, in 2011, with the SNP potentially winning 70 seats or more. After winning 37 seats five years ago, Labour is likely to be hit severely, losing up to 15 seats. Some polls put the Tories close behind Labour, threatening a huge upset by coming second. |
| Could the SNP win even more seats? | Could the SNP win even more seats? |
| Not easily, says Prof John Curtice, a polling expert with Strathclyde University. Unless the SNP’s list vote climbs much higher than the 45% or so at present, a list vote for the SNP is very likely to be wasted. Because it is due to win the large majority of constituency seats in each region, the PR system will allocate more or all list seats to all its rivals. | Not easily, says Prof John Curtice, a polling expert with Strathclyde University. Unless the SNP’s list vote climbs much higher than the 45% or so at present, a list vote for the SNP is very likely to be wasted. Because it is due to win the large majority of constituency seats in each region, the PR system will allocate more or all list seats to all its rivals. |
| This offers Scottish Labour, the Tories and Liberal Democrats the biggest hope for winning seats. But it also presents a significant challenge for smaller parties, such as the Scottish Greens, because it cuts the number of available list seats, and fringe parties such as the UK Independence party or the socialist-green alliance Rise. | This offers Scottish Labour, the Tories and Liberal Democrats the biggest hope for winning seats. But it also presents a significant challenge for smaller parties, such as the Scottish Greens, because it cuts the number of available list seats, and fringe parties such as the UK Independence party or the socialist-green alliance Rise. |
| Even so the polls suggest the Green vote is strong enough for it come fourth for the first time, consigning the Liberal Democrats to a humiliating fifth position at Holyrood. | Even so the polls suggest the Green vote is strong enough for it come fourth for the first time, consigning the Liberal Democrats to a humiliating fifth position at Holyrood. |