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| Trump and Clinton move closer to nominations after New York – campaign live | Trump and Clinton move closer to nominations after New York – campaign live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 6.36pm BST | |
| 18:36 | |
| Ted Cruz has urged John Kasich to get out of the race because he has no path to 1,237 delegates. But why, NBC News asked him, doesn’t the same logic apply to Cruz? | |
| .@HallieJackson asked Cruz about squaring past statements urging Kasich to exit due to 1237 math vs. his own #s now. pic.twitter.com/gVbxOdOT8P | |
| 6.24pm BST | |
| 18:24 | |
| Trump’s hand gestures repertoire is impressively deep. | |
| The funny-cuz-it's-true vid you must see:@MattNegrin names @realDonaldTrump's hand gestures https://t.co/bo4Qsbdy3Mhttps://t.co/G8VCthlzQt | |
| 6.21pm BST | |
| 18:21 | |
| Sanders email: 'we still have a path' | |
| A new Bernie Sanders fundraising email insists, “we still have a path to the nomination”: | |
| Bernie Sanders fundraising email: "We still have a path to the nomination." pic.twitter.com/zl95wLc3IV | |
| Sanders campaign manager Jeff Weaver attempted to lay out that path in an appearance Wednesday morning on MSNBC, saying that a lot of delegates remain to be captured and arguing that superdelegates might switch to Sanders. At which the Washington Post’s Philip Bump points out that to pull off the kind of big finish Weaver envisions, Sanders would need to chalk up monster wins – even bigger than Clinton’s win last night – in states such as Pennsylvania where Sanders currently trails in the polls by double digits with less than a week to go. | |
| So it’s a narrow path. | |
| Update: | |
| New @AP delegate math shows Clinton can lose every remaining contest and still win. by @llerer and @hopeyen1 https://t.co/ej7T7K1Qus | |
| Updated | |
| at 6.30pm BST | |
| 6.12pm BST | 6.12pm BST |
| 18:12 | 18:12 |
| Stephen Colbert had House speaker Paul Ryan on last night, and took an entertaining shot at getting Ryan to admit that, adamant denials notwithstanding, he is running for president. | Stephen Colbert had House speaker Paul Ryan on last night, and took an entertaining shot at getting Ryan to admit that, adamant denials notwithstanding, he is running for president. |
| Ryan: Let me say it in clear English: No! | Ryan: Let me say it in clear English: No! |
| Colbert: How about clear German? | Colbert: How about clear German? |
| Ryan: Nein! | Ryan: Nein! |
| Colbert: Clear Russian? | Colbert: Clear Russian? |
| Ryan: Nyet! | Ryan: Nyet! |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 6.14pm BST | at 6.14pm BST |
| 5.35pm BST | 5.35pm BST |
| 17:35 | 17:35 |
| The importance of Indiana | The importance of Indiana |
| Donald Trump’s authoritative win in New York’s primary Tuesday kept him on a path to notching the 1,237 delegates required to claim the Republican presidential nomination outright. But it’s a narrow path, and it increasingly appears to run through a Midwestern state not accustomed to a starring role in presidential politics: Indiana. | Donald Trump’s authoritative win in New York’s primary Tuesday kept him on a path to notching the 1,237 delegates required to claim the Republican presidential nomination outright. But it’s a narrow path, and it increasingly appears to run through a Midwestern state not accustomed to a starring role in presidential politics: Indiana. |
| Indiana’s status this year as a presidential power-broker is owing to its placement on the calendar and its uniqueness as a tossup state among the 15 states yet to hold Republican contests. These comprise seven states where Trump is expected to perform very well, three winner-take-all western states Trump is expected to lose, four western states expected to divide delegates... and Indiana. | Indiana’s status this year as a presidential power-broker is owing to its placement on the calendar and its uniqueness as a tossup state among the 15 states yet to hold Republican contests. These comprise seven states where Trump is expected to perform very well, three winner-take-all western states Trump is expected to lose, four western states expected to divide delegates... and Indiana. |
| The analysis assumes that voting patterns over the next two months will roughly reflect demographic and geographical voting patterns to have emerged so far. But that may not be such an audacious assumption as it at first appears. It means Trump sweeps eastern states such as New Jersey and Connecticut, and states with a high proportion of less well educated white Republican voters such as West Virginia. It means Trump performs poorly in western and plains states with a high proportion of values voters – categories Ted Cruz has dominated – such as Nebraska, South Dakota and Montana. It means Trump splits as expected the western states that will award delegates proportionally – Washington, Oregon and New Mexico – with his rivals. | The analysis assumes that voting patterns over the next two months will roughly reflect demographic and geographical voting patterns to have emerged so far. But that may not be such an audacious assumption as it at first appears. It means Trump sweeps eastern states such as New Jersey and Connecticut, and states with a high proportion of less well educated white Republican voters such as West Virginia. It means Trump performs poorly in western and plains states with a high proportion of values voters – categories Ted Cruz has dominated – such as Nebraska, South Dakota and Montana. It means Trump splits as expected the western states that will award delegates proportionally – Washington, Oregon and New Mexico – with his rivals. |
| All of which would appear to leave Trump somewhere between 150 and 200 delegates short of the finish line (at 845 delegates, Trump must win 58% of the remaining pledged delegates to get to 1,237, versus the 49% he has won so far). Two question marks would remain: California, which is among the last states to vote on 7 June, and Indiana, which votes about a month earlier, on 3 May. | All of which would appear to leave Trump somewhere between 150 and 200 delegates short of the finish line (at 845 delegates, Trump must win 58% of the remaining pledged delegates to get to 1,237, versus the 49% he has won so far). Two question marks would remain: California, which is among the last states to vote on 7 June, and Indiana, which votes about a month earlier, on 3 May. |
| Indiana’s status as a bellwether stems in part from the fact that it votes first. The outcome in Indiana is likely to determine the stakes in California. | Indiana’s status as a bellwether stems in part from the fact that it votes first. The outcome in Indiana is likely to determine the stakes in California. |
| But Indiana’s significance also stems from its manner of awarding delegates, which favors the statewide winner in a way that California does not. California awards only 13 delegates to its statewide winner, versus 30 in Indiana. The rest of the delegates in each state will be awarded per congressional district. | But Indiana’s significance also stems from its manner of awarding delegates, which favors the statewide winner in a way that California does not. California awards only 13 delegates to its statewide winner, versus 30 in Indiana. The rest of the delegates in each state will be awarded per congressional district. |
| A strong performance district-to-district in California would be more valuable than a strong performance district-to-district in Indiana. California has 53 congressional districts compared with Indiana’s nine. But California’s congressional districts, which range from the heavily Democratic Bay Area to the heavily Republican Orange county, are much more diverse than Indiana’s, making a sweep by any one candidate less likely. | A strong performance district-to-district in California would be more valuable than a strong performance district-to-district in Indiana. California has 53 congressional districts compared with Indiana’s nine. But California’s congressional districts, which range from the heavily Democratic Bay Area to the heavily Republican Orange county, are much more diverse than Indiana’s, making a sweep by any one candidate less likely. |
| A final factor elevating Indiana’s aura as kingmaker is a basic ignorance, thanks to an utter lack of polling, of what the state’s voters are thinking. In lieu of poll numbers, analysts have turned to demographic and regional comparisons and observed the actions of state elections officials as they prepare to run the primary. Both gauges look bad for Trump. | A final factor elevating Indiana’s aura as kingmaker is a basic ignorance, thanks to an utter lack of polling, of what the state’s voters are thinking. In lieu of poll numbers, analysts have turned to demographic and regional comparisons and observed the actions of state elections officials as they prepare to run the primary. Both gauges look bad for Trump. |
| The closest regional and demographic analogue to Indiana is its neighbor to the northwest, Wisconsin, where voters handed Trump a resounding 13-point defeat earlier this month in favor of Cruz. | The closest regional and demographic analogue to Indiana is its neighbor to the northwest, Wisconsin, where voters handed Trump a resounding 13-point defeat earlier this month in favor of Cruz. |
| The news is worse for Trump where local officials are concerned. Multiple potential delegates from Indiana have spoken out publicly against Trump, and at least one has reported receiving death threats from Trump supporters for doing so. According to local reporting, the delegates slate in Indiana appears to lean heavily toward Ohio governor John Kasich, which likely reflects the will of party officials and could reflect the larger drift of voting Republicans. | The news is worse for Trump where local officials are concerned. Multiple potential delegates from Indiana have spoken out publicly against Trump, and at least one has reported receiving death threats from Trump supporters for doing so. According to local reporting, the delegates slate in Indiana appears to lean heavily toward Ohio governor John Kasich, which likely reflects the will of party officials and could reflect the larger drift of voting Republicans. |
| The delegate calculus as it now appears could be thrown off by unexpected developments in the race or by significant anarchy attending the rules for awarding delegates in states such as Pennsylvania and West Virginia, where voters will have to elect dozens of delegates directly from unfamiliar lists of names instead of simply voting for a candidate. But again those factors appear to favor Cruz, who has thrived in such shadows, where Trump has proven endearingly inept. | The delegate calculus as it now appears could be thrown off by unexpected developments in the race or by significant anarchy attending the rules for awarding delegates in states such as Pennsylvania and West Virginia, where voters will have to elect dozens of delegates directly from unfamiliar lists of names instead of simply voting for a candidate. But again those factors appear to favor Cruz, who has thrived in such shadows, where Trump has proven endearingly inept. |
| The world will have to wait until California votes to know whether Trump has cleared the 1,237 hurdle (and even if he does not he may snag the nomination on unpledged delegates). But the die may be cast a month earlier in the humble Hoosier state. | The world will have to wait until California votes to know whether Trump has cleared the 1,237 hurdle (and even if he does not he may snag the nomination on unpledged delegates). But the die may be cast a month earlier in the humble Hoosier state. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 5.42pm BST | at 5.42pm BST |
| 3.56pm BST | 3.56pm BST |
| 15:56 | 15:56 |
| Cruz minimizes Trump New York win | Cruz minimizes Trump New York win |
| At his Hershey, Pennsylvania, rally, Cruz argues that Donald Trump’s New York win was insignificant compared to Cruz’s recent wins. | At his Hershey, Pennsylvania, rally, Cruz argues that Donald Trump’s New York win was insignificant compared to Cruz’s recent wins. |
| “You may have heard there was an election last night,” Cruz says to applause: | “You may have heard there was an election last night,” Cruz says to applause: |
| Donald Trump won his home state. Truly a remarkable feat. Upon winning his home state, Donald, with a characteristic display of humility, declared this race is over, Manhattan has voted, and if the rest of the voters would quietly go home now and allow him to give the general election to Hillary, all would be better. | Donald Trump won his home state. Truly a remarkable feat. Upon winning his home state, Donald, with a characteristic display of humility, declared this race is over, Manhattan has voted, and if the rest of the voters would quietly go home now and allow him to give the general election to Hillary, all would be better. |
| [What they don’t want you to know is], the state of Wisconsin – I won 13,000 more votes in Wisconsin than Donald Trump did last night in New York. The state of Texas – we won more than twice as many votes in Texas as Donald did in New York. There’s a reason Donald wants all of the lapdogs in the media to say that the race is over. Because in the three weeks that preceded yesterday, there were a total of five states that voted... in all five, we won a landslide. 1.3m people voted in those five states... You want to talk about different states, you have the mountain West [Utah]... upper midwest and industrial blue collar [Wisconsin], a state like Colorado, a libertarian-ish purplish state that just legalized pot... | [What they don’t want you to know is], the state of Wisconsin – I won 13,000 more votes in Wisconsin than Donald Trump did last night in New York. The state of Texas – we won more than twice as many votes in Texas as Donald did in New York. There’s a reason Donald wants all of the lapdogs in the media to say that the race is over. Because in the three weeks that preceded yesterday, there were a total of five states that voted... in all five, we won a landslide. 1.3m people voted in those five states... You want to talk about different states, you have the mountain West [Utah]... upper midwest and industrial blue collar [Wisconsin], a state like Colorado, a libertarian-ish purplish state that just legalized pot... |
| “You look at the diversity of those states, and in every one of them the one consistent pattern is we won an overwhelming landslide. | “You look at the diversity of those states, and in every one of them the one consistent pattern is we won an overwhelming landslide. |
| 3.30pm BST | 3.30pm BST |
| 15:30 | 15:30 |
| Ted Cruz has just begun a rally in Hershey, Pennsylvania. Lots of clapping. “I’m thrilled to be here with so many patriots who love our nation,” Cruz says. | Ted Cruz has just begun a rally in Hershey, Pennsylvania. Lots of clapping. “I’m thrilled to be here with so many patriots who love our nation,” Cruz says. |
| Let’s listen: | Let’s listen: |
| 3.25pm BST | 3.25pm BST |
| 15:25 | 15:25 |
| Trump: 'all [Cruz] can do is be a spoiler' | Trump: 'all [Cruz] can do is be a spoiler' |
| In reply to Cruz’s argument that Trump can’t get to 1,237 delegates, Trump tweets that Cruz can’t get to 1,237 delegates – which the Cruz camp tacitly admits. It’s not the most dynamic intellectual tug-of-war. | In reply to Cruz’s argument that Trump can’t get to 1,237 delegates, Trump tweets that Cruz can’t get to 1,237 delegates – which the Cruz camp tacitly admits. It’s not the most dynamic intellectual tug-of-war. |
| But Trump has his eye on the general election, a fight that he has been inviting the Republican party for months to prepare for by unifying around him. Would a Trump nominee who cleanly cleared the 1,237 hurdle be stronger against the Democrats than a Trump nominee who kicked the hurdle down in a stumble to the finish? Trump may have larger difficulties in a general election fight against Clinton than the taint of a messy nominating race. | But Trump has his eye on the general election, a fight that he has been inviting the Republican party for months to prepare for by unifying around him. Would a Trump nominee who cleanly cleared the 1,237 hurdle be stronger against the Democrats than a Trump nominee who kicked the hurdle down in a stumble to the finish? Trump may have larger difficulties in a general election fight against Clinton than the taint of a messy nominating race. |
| Ted Cruz is mathematically out of winning the race. Now all he can do is be a spoiler, never a nice thing to do. I will beat Hillary! | Ted Cruz is mathematically out of winning the race. Now all he can do is be a spoiler, never a nice thing to do. I will beat Hillary! |
| 3.13pm BST | 3.13pm BST |
| 15:13 | 15:13 |
| Cruz: 'Trump had a good night' | Cruz: 'Trump had a good night' |
| Ted Cruz has taken to Philadelphia radio this morning – Pennsylvania votes next Tuesday – to address the results in New York, where he came away with a glistening goose egg, delegates-wise. | Ted Cruz has taken to Philadelphia radio this morning – Pennsylvania votes next Tuesday – to address the results in New York, where he came away with a glistening goose egg, delegates-wise. |
| Cruz’s basic case is that Donald Trump won’t get to 1,237 delegates, the convention will witness a contest and he will emerge as the victor thanks to his campaign’s success at seeding delegate slates with loyalists eager to vote for him in a second round of convention action, no matter whom they might be bound to in the first round. | Cruz’s basic case is that Donald Trump won’t get to 1,237 delegates, the convention will witness a contest and he will emerge as the victor thanks to his campaign’s success at seeding delegate slates with loyalists eager to vote for him in a second round of convention action, no matter whom they might be bound to in the first round. |
| Patrick Svitek of the Texas Tribune tweets Cruz’s argument from this morning: | Patrick Svitek of the Texas Tribune tweets Cruz’s argument from this morning: |
| .@TedCruz on Philadelphia radio: "Last night Donald Trump had a good night. He won his home state." Everyone expected him to. | .@TedCruz on Philadelphia radio: "Last night Donald Trump had a good night. He won his home state." Everyone expected him to. |
| “We are headed to a contested convention. At this point, nobody is getting 1,237.” | “We are headed to a contested convention. At this point, nobody is getting 1,237.” |
| @TedCruz suggests those supporting Trump “might as well put a Hillary sticker on your car.” | @TedCruz suggests those supporting Trump “might as well put a Hillary sticker on your car.” |
| “Donald is going to talk all the time about other folks not getting to 1,237. He’s not getting there either.” | “Donald is going to talk all the time about other folks not getting to 1,237. He’s not getting there either.” |
| Here’s a novel take from the Cruz camp on the state of the race on the morning after Trump scored the most authoritative win in any primary yet: | Here’s a novel take from the Cruz camp on the state of the race on the morning after Trump scored the most authoritative win in any primary yet: |
| .@tedcruz spokesman: @realDonaldTrump campaign is 'one hot mess after another' pic.twitter.com/MHev3R7udt | .@tedcruz spokesman: @realDonaldTrump campaign is 'one hot mess after another' pic.twitter.com/MHev3R7udt |
| Here’s how the Republican delegate count stands: | Here’s how the Republican delegate count stands: |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 3.16pm BST | at 3.16pm BST |
| 2.05pm BST | 2.05pm BST |
| 14:05 | 14:05 |
| Hello, and welcome to our live-wire coverage of the 2016 race for the White House. Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton scored very big victories in New York on Tuesday – every bit as big as the candidates hoped for and their adversaries feared – to significantly advance their respective nomination quests. | Hello, and welcome to our live-wire coverage of the 2016 race for the White House. Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton scored very big victories in New York on Tuesday – every bit as big as the candidates hoped for and their adversaries feared – to significantly advance their respective nomination quests. |
| Trump captured at least 89 of the 95 Republican delegates at stake, although he lost on his own Manhattan turf, in congressional district 12, to John Kasich. Clinton won at least 139 of the 247 Democratic delegates at stake, although Bernie Sanders beat her soundly in most upstate districts. | Trump captured at least 89 of the 95 Republican delegates at stake, although he lost on his own Manhattan turf, in congressional district 12, to John Kasich. Clinton won at least 139 of the 247 Democratic delegates at stake, although Bernie Sanders beat her soundly in most upstate districts. |
| With 98.4% of districts reporting, Clinton led Sanders 57.9%-42.1% statewide, while Trump sat at 60.5% to Kasich’s 25.1%. Ted Cruz was on 14.5%. For granular results, visit our interactive maps page here. | With 98.4% of districts reporting, Clinton led Sanders 57.9%-42.1% statewide, while Trump sat at 60.5% to Kasich’s 25.1%. Ted Cruz was on 14.5%. For granular results, visit our interactive maps page here. |
| Average poll had Clinton winning by 12 points. She won by 16 points. Average poll had Trump by 32. He won by 35. | Average poll had Clinton winning by 12 points. She won by 16 points. Average poll had Trump by 32. He won by 35. |
| Appearing at a victory rally in midtown Manhattan, Clinton said: “Tonight, the race for the Democratic nomination is in the home stretch and victory is in sight.” | Appearing at a victory rally in midtown Manhattan, Clinton said: “Tonight, the race for the Democratic nomination is in the home stretch and victory is in sight.” |
| Trump appeared at Trump Tower in Manhattan and managed to overestimate his resounding victory. “It’s just incredible,” he said. “I guess we’re close to 70%, and we’re gonna end at a very high level, and get a lot more delegates than anybody projected, even in their wildest imagination.” | Trump appeared at Trump Tower in Manhattan and managed to overestimate his resounding victory. “It’s just incredible,” he said. “I guess we’re close to 70%, and we’re gonna end at a very high level, and get a lot more delegates than anybody projected, even in their wildest imagination.” |
| The question now is: what’s next? It is difficult to make the case that a viable path remains for Sanders to swipe the nomination from Clinton, barring some extremely unusual twist. Sanders was returning to Vermont on Wednesday for a meeting with his advisers. | The question now is: what’s next? It is difficult to make the case that a viable path remains for Sanders to swipe the nomination from Clinton, barring some extremely unusual twist. Sanders was returning to Vermont on Wednesday for a meeting with his advisers. |
| Related: Hillary Clinton wins decisive victory over Bernie Sanders in New York primary | Related: Hillary Clinton wins decisive victory over Bernie Sanders in New York primary |
| The Republican race is a bit more difficult to assess, because there’s an active debate over whether to follow rules requiring a candidate to hit 1,237 delegates in order to win the nomination outright. While Trump’s win boosted him toward that magic number, most models of the race had such a win baked in, and the big question marks – how he performs in Indiana and California and beyond – had not changed. | The Republican race is a bit more difficult to assess, because there’s an active debate over whether to follow rules requiring a candidate to hit 1,237 delegates in order to win the nomination outright. While Trump’s win boosted him toward that magic number, most models of the race had such a win baked in, and the big question marks – how he performs in Indiana and California and beyond – had not changed. |
| Related: Donald Trump secures essential home-state win in New York | Related: Donald Trump secures essential home-state win in New York |
| Better than 70% of New York Republicans, however, told exit pollsters that the candidate with most delegates at the end of the state contests should win the nomination, and that sentiment is shared by a majority of Republicans nationally. If the 109 unpledged Republican delegates in the race, plus delegates shaken loose, tip toward that view, the race could be Trump’s. | Better than 70% of New York Republicans, however, told exit pollsters that the candidate with most delegates at the end of the state contests should win the nomination, and that sentiment is shared by a majority of Republicans nationally. If the 109 unpledged Republican delegates in the race, plus delegates shaken loose, tip toward that view, the race could be Trump’s. |
| It's funny watching CW pendulum swing from def-contested after WI to inevitably-Trump after NY. We're all better off waiting til Indiana. | It's funny watching CW pendulum swing from def-contested after WI to inevitably-Trump after NY. We're all better off waiting til Indiana. |
| What do you make of the New York result? Thanks as always for reading and please join the debate in the comments! | What do you make of the New York result? Thanks as always for reading and please join the debate in the comments! |
| We're screwed https://t.co/8SNfkGiy63 | We're screwed https://t.co/8SNfkGiy63 |