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| Cameron could not have asked for more from Obama's Brexit warning | Cameron could not have asked for more from Obama's Brexit warning |
| (4 months later) | |
| Barack Obama’s warning about the UK’s prospects of securing a new trade deal if it leaves the European Union has transformed the character of the US president’s intervention in the referendum debate, taking it from an emotional, if routine, appeal about the special relationship to a blunt pocket-book warning to every single British voter. | Barack Obama’s warning about the UK’s prospects of securing a new trade deal if it leaves the European Union has transformed the character of the US president’s intervention in the referendum debate, taking it from an emotional, if routine, appeal about the special relationship to a blunt pocket-book warning to every single British voter. |
| Jobs and prosperity are at stake, Obama said, sounding for all the world as if he was on the election campaign trail. It was the economy, stupid. | Jobs and prosperity are at stake, Obama said, sounding for all the world as if he was on the election campaign trail. It was the economy, stupid. |
| David Cameron could not have asked for more, or for the president’s intervention to be more deft, pointed or considered. The only thing missing was a “better off in” poster behind the two leaders. | David Cameron could not have asked for more, or for the president’s intervention to be more deft, pointed or considered. The only thing missing was a “better off in” poster behind the two leaders. |
| The remain campaign, unsurprisingly, is delirious since it is convinced it wins as long as the campaign is focused on economics, as opposed to abstract issues of sovereignty or influence that engage only a Westminster elite, or those attracted to the idea of taking back control. | The remain campaign, unsurprisingly, is delirious since it is convinced it wins as long as the campaign is focused on economics, as opposed to abstract issues of sovereignty or influence that engage only a Westminster elite, or those attracted to the idea of taking back control. |
| Obama punctured the leave argument that outside one of the world’s trading blocs the UK, as the fifth largest economy in the world, was going to be better placed to strike new trade deals. | Obama punctured the leave argument that outside one of the world’s trading blocs the UK, as the fifth largest economy in the world, was going to be better placed to strike new trade deals. |
| He argued: “In the 21st century the nations who make their presence felt on the world stage aren’t those who go it alone. The UK is going to be in the back of the queue.” He said trying to make “piecemeal trade agreements” would be less efficient than the US “having access to a big market with a lot of countries”. | He argued: “In the 21st century the nations who make their presence felt on the world stage aren’t those who go it alone. The UK is going to be in the back of the queue.” He said trying to make “piecemeal trade agreements” would be less efficient than the US “having access to a big market with a lot of countries”. |
| A focus group released by Lord Ashcroft on Friday on the public’s mood about the referendum reported one voter saying he was “waiting for a lightbulb moment”. | A focus group released by Lord Ashcroft on Friday on the public’s mood about the referendum reported one voter saying he was “waiting for a lightbulb moment”. |
| It may well be that Obama’s remarks will be that moment – the point at which many voters engage with the issue and realise the president of the foremost power in the world is seriously agitated that the UK might be about to do something very stupid to itself. | It may well be that Obama’s remarks will be that moment – the point at which many voters engage with the issue and realise the president of the foremost power in the world is seriously agitated that the UK might be about to do something very stupid to itself. |
| That said, in practice Obama’s trade deal warning has some problems. The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) between the EU and the US is still a long way from completion. The US trade representative, Michael Froman, has been in Britain this week to discuss how many chapters are yet to be agreed. There is almost no chance that this particular trade deal will be completed during the Obama presidency. | That said, in practice Obama’s trade deal warning has some problems. The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) between the EU and the US is still a long way from completion. The US trade representative, Michael Froman, has been in Britain this week to discuss how many chapters are yet to be agreed. There is almost no chance that this particular trade deal will be completed during the Obama presidency. |
| There is also an argument voiced on the left in the UK and much more widely in Germany that the TTIP is damaging – a deal for big business and not consumers. In his pro-Europe speech last week Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour leader, went out of his way to say he opposed TTIP and that it would have to be recast. | There is also an argument voiced on the left in the UK and much more widely in Germany that the TTIP is damaging – a deal for big business and not consumers. In his pro-Europe speech last week Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour leader, went out of his way to say he opposed TTIP and that it would have to be recast. |
| In Germany, where Obama travels next, more than 150,000 people marched in Berlin against TTIP last October. A poll by YouGov released this week found only 17% of Germans think TTIP is good for Germany, down from 55% two years ago. One in three Germans are against the agreement entirely. | In Germany, where Obama travels next, more than 150,000 people marched in Berlin against TTIP last October. A poll by YouGov released this week found only 17% of Germans think TTIP is good for Germany, down from 55% two years ago. One in three Germans are against the agreement entirely. |
| Obama’s remarks should not come as a surprise. Last October Froman warned that the US is “not particularly in the market for free trade agreements with individual countries”. If it left the EU the UK “would be subject to the same tariffs, and other trade-related measures, as China, or Brazil or India”, he said. | Obama’s remarks should not come as a surprise. Last October Froman warned that the US is “not particularly in the market for free trade agreements with individual countries”. If it left the EU the UK “would be subject to the same tariffs, and other trade-related measures, as China, or Brazil or India”, he said. |
| For months the threat was waiting to be stated by the president, and now it has been unleashed. It is not as if the leave campaign had no warning. How it now responds may well decide whether its campaign survives. | For months the threat was waiting to be stated by the president, and now it has been unleashed. It is not as if the leave campaign had no warning. How it now responds may well decide whether its campaign survives. |