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| Donald Trump Beat Expectations Everywhere, Suggesting a Broad Shift | Donald Trump Beat Expectations Everywhere, Suggesting a Broad Shift |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| After just about every primary night this year, we’ve written something like “Donald Trump stayed on a narrow but clear path to the Republican nomination.” | |
| After Tuesday night, Mr. Trump has never had a wider path to a majority of pledged delegates. | After Tuesday night, Mr. Trump has never had a wider path to a majority of pledged delegates. |
| He swept the Northeastern corridor by a huge margin, smashing any and all expectations based on primaries to date. He won a majority of the vote nearly everywhere, and even carried many of the places where he was expected to be weak — like Montgomery County, Md., or Greenwich, Conn., or Lancaster, Pa. | He swept the Northeastern corridor by a huge margin, smashing any and all expectations based on primaries to date. He won a majority of the vote nearly everywhere, and even carried many of the places where he was expected to be weak — like Montgomery County, Md., or Greenwich, Conn., or Lancaster, Pa. |
| His huge victory makes a majority of delegates seem well within reach. That’s in part because he amassed more delegates than expected, but also because his strength made wins in Indiana and California seem more likely than before. | His huge victory makes a majority of delegates seem well within reach. That’s in part because he amassed more delegates than expected, but also because his strength made wins in Indiana and California seem more likely than before. |
| He was expected to fare well, but he beat the pre-election polls everywhere. He was at 48 percent in the final Pennsylvania polls; he won 57 percent. He was at 49 percent in the Maryland polls (43 percent excluding the generally dubious polls from A.R.G.); he won 54 percent. | He was expected to fare well, but he beat the pre-election polls everywhere. He was at 48 percent in the final Pennsylvania polls; he won 57 percent. He was at 49 percent in the Maryland polls (43 percent excluding the generally dubious polls from A.R.G.); he won 54 percent. |
| Similarly, The Upshot’s demographic-based models systematically underestimated Mr. Trump’s performance. | Similarly, The Upshot’s demographic-based models systematically underestimated Mr. Trump’s performance. |
| His best state, as expected, was Rhode Island. But he won 64 percent of the vote, not the 57 percent that the model anticipated. Mr. Trump was favored to win big, at 50 and 51 percent, in Delaware and Connecticut; he won 61 and 58 percent. | His best state, as expected, was Rhode Island. But he won 64 percent of the vote, not the 57 percent that the model anticipated. Mr. Trump was favored to win big, at 50 and 51 percent, in Delaware and Connecticut; he won 61 and 58 percent. |
| Maryland and Pennsylvania seemed more challenging for Mr. Trump. The model had him at 41 and 45 percent. He easily outperformed those tallies, winning 54 and 57 percent of the vote. | Maryland and Pennsylvania seemed more challenging for Mr. Trump. The model had him at 41 and 45 percent. He easily outperformed those tallies, winning 54 and 57 percent of the vote. |
| Mr. Trump’s overperformance was broad — spanning nearly every kind of county across all of the states in play. | Mr. Trump’s overperformance was broad — spanning nearly every kind of county across all of the states in play. |
| That raises the possibility of a significant shift in Mr. Trump’s favor over the last month. There’s no way to be sure, but national polls show something similar, with Mr. Trump creeping up into the mid-40s. The state polls in Indiana and California have also looked very good in recent weeks. | That raises the possibility of a significant shift in Mr. Trump’s favor over the last month. There’s no way to be sure, but national polls show something similar, with Mr. Trump creeping up into the mid-40s. The state polls in Indiana and California have also looked very good in recent weeks. |
| Perhaps he will return to more familiar levels of support once he leaves the Northeast. But even then, he’ll still have a very credible shot to win a majority of delegates — and an easier shot because of the delegates he earned in the Northeast. | Perhaps he will return to more familiar levels of support once he leaves the Northeast. But even then, he’ll still have a very credible shot to win a majority of delegates — and an easier shot because of the delegates he earned in the Northeast. |
| If there’s any good news for Mr. Trump’s opponents, it’s that his landslide didn’t yield too many more pledged delegates than expected — most of the states awarded their delegates to the winner, and Mr. Trump was expected to win. | If there’s any good news for Mr. Trump’s opponents, it’s that his landslide didn’t yield too many more pledged delegates than expected — most of the states awarded their delegates to the winner, and Mr. Trump was expected to win. |
| But every delegate counts for Mr. Trump at this stage, and where he could squeeze out additional ones, he did. He won all of the delegates at stake in Maryland and Connecticut by clearing 50 percent of the vote and winning all of the congressional districts. He even earned an unexpected additional delegate in Rhode Island’s Second Congressional District, where Mr. Cruz failed to get the 10 percent needed for a delegate. Altogether, Mr. Trump will probably win 110 of the 118 pledged delegates at stake — a hair better than what seemed like his best-case scenario. | But every delegate counts for Mr. Trump at this stage, and where he could squeeze out additional ones, he did. He won all of the delegates at stake in Maryland and Connecticut by clearing 50 percent of the vote and winning all of the congressional districts. He even earned an unexpected additional delegate in Rhode Island’s Second Congressional District, where Mr. Cruz failed to get the 10 percent needed for a delegate. Altogether, Mr. Trump will probably win 110 of the 118 pledged delegates at stake — a hair better than what seemed like his best-case scenario. |
| Mr. Trump outperformed by even more in the Pennsylvania “loophole” primary — the sort of contest that has tripped him up. Voters directly elected 54 unbound delegates to the Republican convention, but the ballot included no guidance on whom the delegates might support. Nonetheless, Mr. Trump’s preferred slate leads in 29 of the 54 delegate slots, and another 13 had told the news media that they would vote for the winner of their district. Mr. Trump may not ultimately win all of these delegates — they’re not bound to their statements — but they could provide him with a crucial cushion if he falls a bit short in the pledged delegate count. | Mr. Trump outperformed by even more in the Pennsylvania “loophole” primary — the sort of contest that has tripped him up. Voters directly elected 54 unbound delegates to the Republican convention, but the ballot included no guidance on whom the delegates might support. Nonetheless, Mr. Trump’s preferred slate leads in 29 of the 54 delegate slots, and another 13 had told the news media that they would vote for the winner of their district. Mr. Trump may not ultimately win all of these delegates — they’re not bound to their statements — but they could provide him with a crucial cushion if he falls a bit short in the pledged delegate count. |
| If you include Mr. Trump’s preferred delegates from the unpledged delegate slate in Pennsylvania, he is around 250 delegates short of the 1,237 necessary to win the nomination. He can cover about half of that amount with expected wins in West Virginia and New Jersey and with delegates from proportional states. | If you include Mr. Trump’s preferred delegates from the unpledged delegate slate in Pennsylvania, he is around 250 delegates short of the 1,237 necessary to win the nomination. He can cover about half of that amount with expected wins in West Virginia and New Jersey and with delegates from proportional states. |
| That leaves two key states: Indiana and California. | That leaves two key states: Indiana and California. |
| Mr. Trump would easily win if he carried both states. He might not even need Indiana if he maintains the loyalty of the unbound delegates who said they would vote for the winner of their district in Pennsylvania, or simply if he wins big in California. | Mr. Trump would easily win if he carried both states. He might not even need Indiana if he maintains the loyalty of the unbound delegates who said they would vote for the winner of their district in Pennsylvania, or simply if he wins big in California. |
| And after Tuesday night, a big win in California looks quite possible. | And after Tuesday night, a big win in California looks quite possible. |