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California Prepares for Long-Denied Star Turn in Presidential Race California Prepares for Long-Denied Star Turn in Presidential Race
(about 17 hours later)
BURLINGAME, Calif. — This is the most populous state in the nation, but in presidential elections, it has almost always found itself on the sidelines. The last time a Republican primary in California mattered was 52 years ago, when the party nominated Barry Goldwater.BURLINGAME, Calif. — This is the most populous state in the nation, but in presidential elections, it has almost always found itself on the sidelines. The last time a Republican primary in California mattered was 52 years ago, when the party nominated Barry Goldwater.
But California will finally play an important role in the drama of presidential politics.But California will finally play an important role in the drama of presidential politics.
The 172 Republican delegates up for grabs in the state’s June 7 primary, which in most years has taken place well after the party’s presidential standard-bearer was known, will determine whether Donald J. Trump can clinch the nomination on the last day of voting and avoid having to wrangle uncommitted delegates at the national convention in July.The 172 Republican delegates up for grabs in the state’s June 7 primary, which in most years has taken place well after the party’s presidential standard-bearer was known, will determine whether Donald J. Trump can clinch the nomination on the last day of voting and avoid having to wrangle uncommitted delegates at the national convention in July.
All three Republican presidential candidates, along with hundreds of reporters, turned up for the party’s state convention here over the weekend, the biggest show in memory of presidential candidate firepower at this yearly gathering.All three Republican presidential candidates, along with hundreds of reporters, turned up for the party’s state convention here over the weekend, the biggest show in memory of presidential candidate firepower at this yearly gathering.
“California is at a crossroads — California is going to decide this Republican primary,” Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, who may need a win in Indiana to keep his hopes alive here, told hundreds of conventiongoers Saturday. “Who’d have thunk it?” “California is at a crossroads — California is going to decide this Republican primary,” Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, who may need a win in Indiana on Tuesday to keep his hopes alive here, told hundreds of conventiongoers Saturday. “Who’d have thunk it?”
The sudden interest in California, on one hand, has been a cause for celebration in a state that has been starved for attention in presidential contests. A meaningful primary means extensive campaigning, and a national focus on issues of particular concern to the sprawling electorate here, rather than the usual brief touchdowns to raise money or appear on “Jimmy Kimmel Live.” The sudden interest in California, on one hand, has been a cause for celebration in a state that has been starved for attention in presidential contests. A meaningful primary means extensive campaigning, and a national focus on issues of particular concern to the electorate here, rather than the usual brief touchdowns to raise money or appear on “Jimmy Kimmel Live!”
Mr. Cruz, for one, drew appreciative applause when he denounced environmental regulations that he said were depriving drought-stricken farmers of water in the Central Valley. A rival, Gov. John Kasich of Ohio, all but gushed: “I’m not a big panderer, but I do have to tell you: I love California. I have been coming here for a very long time.” Mr. Cruz, for one, drew appreciative applause when he denounced environmental regulations that he said were depriving drought-stricken farmers of water in the Central Valley. A rival, Gov. John Kasich of Ohio, all but gushed: “I’m not a big panderer, but I do have to tell you, I love California. I have been coming here for a very long time.”
As desirable as the attention may be, the prospect of the presidential campaign’s arrival in California also poses a threat to the state’s Republican Party, which has been politically marginalized, with Republican registration at just 28 percent. A Republican has not won a statewide election since Arnold Schwarzenegger was re-elected governor in 2006.As desirable as the attention may be, the prospect of the presidential campaign’s arrival in California also poses a threat to the state’s Republican Party, which has been politically marginalized, with Republican registration at just 28 percent. A Republican has not won a statewide election since Arnold Schwarzenegger was re-elected governor in 2006.
Republican leaders are in the midst of a major effort to reposition the party ideologically as it seeks to revive its appeal in a state that is increasingly Democratic and Latino. In large part, that means distancing the state party from national Republicans on issues like immigration and same-sex marriage.Republican leaders are in the midst of a major effort to reposition the party ideologically as it seeks to revive its appeal in a state that is increasingly Democratic and Latino. In large part, that means distancing the state party from national Republicans on issues like immigration and same-sex marriage.
Yet Mr. Trump landed on Thursday night in Orange County with a blistering speech attacking immigrants in the country illegally and suggesting that Mexicans illegally crossing the border were responsible for a recent spike in crime in Los Angeles. And Mr. Cruz trumpeted the endorsement of former Gov. Pete Wilson, who championed a state initiative in 1994 that would have cut benefits to those in the country illegally and is widely seen as one of the reasons the party is struggling today. Yet Mr. Trump landed on Thursday night in Orange County with a blistering speech attacking immigrants who are in the country illegally and suggesting that Mexicans illegally crossing the border were responsible for a recent spike in crime in Los Angeles. And Mr. Cruz trumpeted the endorsement of former Gov. Pete Wilson, who championed a state initiative in 1994 that would have cut benefits to those in the country illegally and that is widely seen as one of the reasons the party is struggling today.
Even if Mr. Trump wins on Tuesday in Indiana and convincingly proclaims himself the presumptive nominee, he is almost certain to continue campaigning aggressively in California to amass enough delegates to fend off any challenges at the Republican National Convention. Even if Mr. Trump wins in Indiana and convincingly proclaims himself the presumptive nominee, he is almost certain to continue campaigning aggressively in California to amass enough delegates to fend off any challenges at the Republican National Convention.
That is a prospect some Republicans here do not welcome.That is a prospect some Republicans here do not welcome.
“It does set back Republican efforts in California,” said Bill Whalen, a fellow with the conservative Hoover Institution who served as a senior adviser to Mr. Wilson. “The California party is in a phase of rebuilding and rebranding. And that means toning down the message and developing a message that appeals to a widening swath of Californians. I can’t think of a more toxic situation than him coming in alienating women and Mexicans.”“It does set back Republican efforts in California,” said Bill Whalen, a fellow with the conservative Hoover Institution who served as a senior adviser to Mr. Wilson. “The California party is in a phase of rebuilding and rebranding. And that means toning down the message and developing a message that appeals to a widening swath of Californians. I can’t think of a more toxic situation than him coming in alienating women and Mexicans.”
Chuck Page, a Republican State Senate candidate from Saratoga, said he was worried about how the presidential campaign here might affect Republicans like him. “It makes it harder for me,” he said in the atrium of the convention hotel here, protests against Mr. Trump clearly audible outside. “I’m a middle-of-the-road kind of guy.”Chuck Page, a Republican State Senate candidate from Saratoga, said he was worried about how the presidential campaign here might affect Republicans like him. “It makes it harder for me,” he said in the atrium of the convention hotel here, protests against Mr. Trump clearly audible outside. “I’m a middle-of-the-road kind of guy.”
There was a time when it seemed the Democratic fight between Hillary Clinton and Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont would also remain up in the air until June, providing California Democrats with their own rare opportunity to help decide a national primary. But with Mr. Sanders’s chances of overtaking Mrs. Clinton fading, the biggest question here may be whether he will make a strong enough showing to provide her one more embarrassment as the primary calendar runs out. There was a time when it seemed the fight between Hillary Clinton and Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont would also remain up in the air until June, providing California Democrats with their own rare opportunity to help decide a national primary. But with Mr. Sanders’s chances of overtaking Mrs. Clinton fading, the biggest question here may be whether he will make a strong enough showing to provide her one more embarrassment as the primary calendar runs out.
In general elections, California’s 55 electoral votes are the biggest prize on the map. But the state has swung decisively Democratic in recent years: A Republican has not carried the state since George H. W. Bush beat Michael S. Dukakis in 1988. In general elections, California’s 55 electoral votes are the biggest prize on the map. But the state has swung decisively Democratic in recent years: A Republican has not carried the state since George Bush beat Michael S. Dukakis in 1988.
California’s presidential primary is most often scheduled to coincide with the June state primary — largely to avoid the cost of separate elections. By that point, though, presidential nominations have usually been decided. And when the presidential primary has been held earlier — as in 2008, when Mrs. Clinton defeated Barack Obama in the state — California has had to compete for attention with other states holding contests the same day.California’s presidential primary is most often scheduled to coincide with the June state primary — largely to avoid the cost of separate elections. By that point, though, presidential nominations have usually been decided. And when the presidential primary has been held earlier — as in 2008, when Mrs. Clinton defeated Barack Obama in the state — California has had to compete for attention with other states holding contests the same day.
“We were pretty relevant in ’68,” said John Burton, the state Democratic chairman, who has been involved in state politics for 50 years. He paused. “Yeah, that’s a long time ago.”“We were pretty relevant in ’68,” said John Burton, the state Democratic chairman, who has been involved in state politics for 50 years. He paused. “Yeah, that’s a long time ago.”
Understandably, the prospect of another relevant campaign here has stirred much excitement. When Mr. Kasich, who has won just one state this year, showed up on Friday for an evening news conference, 15 television cameras awaited him. The convention hotel’s atrium was packed with volunteers passing out buttons for Mr. Cruz or trying to sign up delegates for Mr. Kasich. (Strikingly, no such organizational presence was visible for Mr. Trump.)Understandably, the prospect of another relevant campaign here has stirred much excitement. When Mr. Kasich, who has won just one state this year, showed up on Friday for an evening news conference, 15 television cameras awaited him. The convention hotel’s atrium was packed with volunteers passing out buttons for Mr. Cruz or trying to sign up delegates for Mr. Kasich. (Strikingly, no such organizational presence was visible for Mr. Trump.)
“I’ve never seen anything like this this far out,” said Jim Brulte, the state Republican chairman, who was besieged by delegates, campaign aides and reporters as he moved through the convention hall.“I’ve never seen anything like this this far out,” said Jim Brulte, the state Republican chairman, who was besieged by delegates, campaign aides and reporters as he moved through the convention hall.
The convention site, as it happened, was 10 miles from the Cow Palace, the scene of the bitterly divided Republican National Convention that picked Mr. Goldwater in 1964.The convention site, as it happened, was 10 miles from the Cow Palace, the scene of the bitterly divided Republican National Convention that picked Mr. Goldwater in 1964.
The party is reaping a windfall from the heightened interest: Tickets to hear Mr. Cruz, Mr. Trump and Mr. Kasich speak were $100 each. Yet there was a cost, too, in the protests outside, and in a three-story banner smuggled into the hotel and unfurled down a wall, reading, “Stop Hate.”The party is reaping a windfall from the heightened interest: Tickets to hear Mr. Cruz, Mr. Trump and Mr. Kasich speak were $100 each. Yet there was a cost, too, in the protests outside, and in a three-story banner smuggled into the hotel and unfurled down a wall, reading, “Stop Hate.”
A greater cost, some Republicans fear, could come in setting back efforts to reposition the party on immigration and to appeal to political independents in a state where Latinos make up 39 percent of the population. Mr. Trump and Mr. Cruz, by contrast, are appealing to core Republican primary voters who, polls show, embrace their tough immigration language.A greater cost, some Republicans fear, could come in setting back efforts to reposition the party on immigration and to appeal to political independents in a state where Latinos make up 39 percent of the population. Mr. Trump and Mr. Cruz, by contrast, are appealing to core Republican primary voters who, polls show, embrace their tough immigration language.
“It’s devastating to us here,” said Rob Stutzman, who was deputy chief of staff to Mr. Schwarzenegger and is leading the anti-Trump movement in California. “It’s so toxic to our brand.”“It’s devastating to us here,” said Rob Stutzman, who was deputy chief of staff to Mr. Schwarzenegger and is leading the anti-Trump movement in California. “It’s so toxic to our brand.”
And Marty Wilson, a Republican strategist, said the damage extended beyond Latino voters. “It hurts us even more with Asian voters,” he said. “Our growth in California comes because of immigrants from the Pacific.”And Marty Wilson, a Republican strategist, said the damage extended beyond Latino voters. “It hurts us even more with Asian voters,” he said. “Our growth in California comes because of immigrants from the Pacific.”
Lanhee J. Chen, a California Republican who advised Mitt Romney’s 2012 presidential campaign, warned that “a discussion that is as caustic and bitter about immigration as Trump wants is problematic for the long-term prospects of the party.” He said prospects for state candidates in 2016 were “nearly impossible” already, and that even 2018 would be tough. Lanhee J. Chen, a California Republican who advised Mitt Romney’s 2012 presidential campaign, warned that “a discussion that is as caustic and bitter about immigration as Trump wants is problematic for the long-term prospects of the party.” He said that prospects for state candidates in 2016 were “nearly impossible” already, and that even 2018 would be tough.
“It’s hard to get good candidates,” he added, “to do kamikaze missions.”“It’s hard to get good candidates,” he added, “to do kamikaze missions.”