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Ahmet Davutoglu Says He’ll Step Down as Turkey’s Prime Minister How Erdogan Moved to Solidify Power by Ousting a Pivotal Ally
(about 4 hours later)
ISTANBUL — Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, a pivotal ally of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, announced his resignation on Thursday, exposing a rift between the two men over Mr. Erdogan’s drive for more power. ISTANBUL — In pursuit of more power, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey has purged the judiciary of enemies, jailed journalists and crushed anti-government protests. Now, he has ousted his closest political ally, the country’s prime minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, whose modest effort to check Mr. Erdogan’s ambition was too much for the president.
Speaking at the Justice and Development Party’s headquarters in Ankara, Mr. Davutoglu refrained from criticizing Mr. Erdogan, with whom he said he had “a brotherly relationship.” Mr. Davutoglu, publicly loyal to Mr. Erdogan even as he pushed back privately on some of his excesses, said Thursday that he would step aside as the leader of the Islamist Justice and Development Party, or A.K.P., and give up his position as prime minister.
“You will never hear me say negative things about the president,” Mr. Davutoglu said. Clearly shaken, but a loyal party soldier to the end, Mr. Davutoglu described his relationship with Mr. Erdogan as “brotherly.”
But the split highlights concerns over Turkey’s increasingly authoritarian turn under Mr. Erdogan. “You will never hear me say negative things about our president,” he said Thursday, his voice quavering. “My loyalty to him will last until the end.”
Observers said the discord between the country’s top two leaders could have far-reaching consequences beyond the governing Justice and Development Party, known by its Turkish initials, the A.K.P. Mr. Davutoglu’s resignation exposed a rift between the two men over Mr. Erdogan’s moves to expand his power. Their split signals that Mr. Erdogan’s transformation from democrat to autocrat is nearly complete, his ambition of establishing an executive presidency closer at hand.
A “rift in AKP party might well lead to much wider and much more dangerous conflict in Turkey’s society as a whole,” Carl Bildt, a former prime minister and foreign minister of Sweden who has been widely involved in peace negotiations worldwide, wrote on Twitter. As an Islamist leader who presided over a growing economy and seemed serious about advancing democracy in Turkey, Mr. Erdogan was embraced by the West when he came to power in 2003. A dazzling and charismatic reformer, he seemed to embody the promise that Islam and democracy could coexist.
Mr. Davutoglu said Thursday that he would step down after an special meeting of party leaders, which officials said would be held on May 22. In recent years, critics have argued that Mr. Erdogan never intended to become a liberal leader, citing an old quote attributed to him that “democracy is like a bus, when you arrive at your destination, you step off.”
The leadership change atop the Islamist A.K.P. comes as the country is facing multiple challenges, including a war with Kurdish militants, terrorist attacks by Islamic State fighters, and the arrival of millions of Syrian refugees. The shuffle clears the way for Mr. Erdogan, who critics say has become increasingly authoritarian, to consolidate even more control. Mr. Erdogan has tried to silence his critics, sometimes with comical effects, and is seeking to change the Constitution to establish a more powerful presidency and solidify his status as the pre-eminent political figure in Turkey.
Under Turkey’s Constitution, the prime minister is the most powerful official, and the president, although he has some genuine powers, is a largely ceremonial figure. But Mr. Erdogan has not been like previous Turkish presidents, and there has been little doubt that he is the country’s pre-eminent political figure. The ouster of Mr. Davutoglu offered another vivid example of Mr. Erdogan’s autocratic style and his mastery of power politics that Turks this week likened to characters from the “Godfather” or “House of Cards.”
Mr. Davutoglu, who became prime minister in 2014, after Mr. Erdogan was elected president, had long been seen as subservient to Mr. Erdogan. Mr. Erdogan is often compared to President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia for his authoritarian style and his ability to keep winning elections while eroding the quality of Turkey’s democratic institutions. Mr. Erdogan burnished that image when he switched from prime minister to president, something Mr. Putin had done to preserve his political supremacy.
But simmering tensions between them boiled over this week, leading to speculation in the Turkish news media about a rift. The split was initiated last week, after party officials stripped Mr. Davutoglu of his power to choose provincial party leaders. Mr. Davutoglu, long seen as subservient to Mr. Erdogan, was often compared to Dmitri A. Medvedev, Mr. Putin’s loyal deputy. But Mr. Medvedev has stuck around and Mr. Davutoglu is out.
“Even with a person as compliant as Davutoglu, the relationship didn’t work,” said Sinan Ulgen, a former Turkish diplomat and the chairman of the Center for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies, a research organization here. “Mr. Erdogan doesn’t even want someone like Davutoglu, who was pretty much singing his tune, with some nuances,” said Suat Kiniklioglu, a former lawmaker with the A.K.P. and the chairman of the Center For Strategic Communication in Ankara. “Step by step, he’s making sure his political objective, which is the presidential system, is achieved.”
In public, Mr. Davutoglu has sought mostly to play the role of party loyalist and devotee to Mr. Erdogan, but analysts say the two men have privately differed on several issues. The resignation of Mr. Davutoglu coincided with one of his greatest successes as prime minister: A deal with the European Union to stem the flow of refugees from Turkey to the Continent.
Mr. Davutoglu was said to be resistant to Mr. Erdogan’s long-held ambition to rewrite Turkey’s Constitution and establish an executive presidency. Mr. Davutoglu, not Mr. Erdogan, was front and center in those negotiations, and the international attention he received angered Mr. Erdogan, analysts said. Mr. Davutoglu also sought a meeting with President Obama, according to Turkish news media reports, and though the meeting did not transpire, the analysts said it nevertheless raised the ire of Mr. Erdogan.
Recently, Mr. Davutoglu had suggested he was willing to return to peace negotiations to end a long war — which resumed in earnest last year — with the Kurdistan Worker’s Party, or P.K.K., while Mr. Erdogan has appeared more hawkish. “Erdogan has been deeply suspicious of Davutoglu’s attempts to gain international credibility through his dealings with the European Union and attempts to meet with Obama,” said Aykan Erdemir, a former opposition lawmaker with Turkey’s main secular party who is now a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
The two leaders also seemed to differ on monetary policy, with Mr. Davutoglu supporting the independence of the central bank, and Mr. Erdogan seeking to intervene for lower interest rates. As part of the refugee deal, the European Union agreed to visa-free travel for Turks to parts of Europe and to speed up Turkey’s long-stalled negotiations to join the bloc. With Mr. Davutoglu out, that process is further in doubt.
In choosing to step down as the leader of the A.K.P., Mr. Davutoglu will clear the way for Mr. Erdogan to pick a new party boss who will then become prime minister. In public, Mr. Davutoglu has largely been deferential to Mr. Erdogan. “He was praising him and glorifying him,” said Mr. Kiniklioglu, the former lawmaker.
“The new elected prime minister’s main mission will be to drive forward the presidential agenda,” Mr. Ulgen said. But Mr. Davutoglu was known to be less enthusiastic than Mr. Erdogan in pushing for a presidential system, something that would have eliminated any remaining authority in the office of prime minister, which under Turkey’s Constitution is the most powerful position.
But even with a new prime minister, it will not be so easy for Mr. Erdogan to alter the Constitution as he wants. The A.K.P., which has been in power for more than a decade, with Mr. Erdogan the prime minister for much of that time, does not have enough seats in Parliament to approve the changes on its own or call a national referendum on a new constitution. Most opinion polls show the Turkish public opposes Mr. Erdogan’s proposed presidential system. “There is no major ideological divide between the two,” said Omer Taspinar, an expert on Turkey at the Brookings Institution. “It’s a power struggle, with Erdogan pushing for total loyalty and full support for his presidential agenda and Davutoglu showing slight resistance in order to keep checks and balances to protect his role as prime minister.”
Mr. Erdogan rose to power in 2003, and the A.K.P. won several national elections. But last June, the party lost its parliamentary majority and the Kurdish political party won seats in Parliament for the first time. While his public comments indicated little distance between him and Mr. Erdogan, there were signs lately that Mr. Davutoglu was trying to assert himself and, at least modestly, challenge Mr. Erdogan’s authority.
That is when war resumed between the Turkish state and the Kurdish P.K.K., which seemed eager to return to arms. Critics of Mr. Erdogan said he sought to use the conflict as a political strategy to regain nationalist votes. “The basic problem is that Erdogan seeks to eliminate anyone in the party who has any ambitions of authority of their own,” said Svante E. Cornell, a Turkey analyst with the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, a research organization.
Indeed, after failed coalition talks with opposition parties last summer, Mr. Erdogan called for new elections, and the party regained its majority in November. The split between Turkey’s top two political leaders added another element of turmoil at a time when the country is facing numerous challenges: A war in the southeast against Kurdish militants; spillover from the war in Syria, with cross-border shelling; and the arrival of millions of refugees.
With Mr. Erdogan’s not having enough support to amend the Constitution, analysts have predicted that with a new prime minister, he could move to hold early elections in a bid to amass more seats in Parliament. Mr. Davutoglu had been the chief architect of Turkey’s Syria policy, which is widely viewed as a failure.
In his remarks on Thursday, Mr. Davutoglu cited numerous accomplishments, including responses to several terrorist attacks, and insisted that he would remain loyal to the A.K.P. For years, Turkey allowed its southern border with Syria to be an easy conduit for weapons and fighters, a policy criticized by the United States and other allies for allowing the rise of the Islamic State. The refugee crisis shows no signs of abating and Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad, remains firmly in power, backed by Russia and Iran.
“A strong A.K.P. government will continue to lead for the next four years, and there should be no doubt about safety and stability,” he said. Analysts say Mr. Davutoglu will likely be cast as the scapegoat for Turkey’s Syria policy by Mr. Erdogan and his inner circle.
Mr. Davutoglu added: “Our president said he wanted a strong prime minister, and I tried to carry the flag the best I could. I never interfered with any decisions about our party. I never interfered with any decisions through a personal perspective. Our party is about to enter a new era, subsequent to consultations with my colleagues in the party.” The country also endured a period of political instability last year, after the A.K.P. lost its parliamentary majority before regaining control in a snap election. During this period, Turkish stocks fell and the Turkish lira lost value against the dollar, reflecting investors’ concerns about Mr. Erdogan’s unchecked power.
Mr. Kiniklioglu said that Mr. Davutoglu’s assertiveness on international issues likely raised concerns among Mr. Erdogan and his inner circle that the prime minister was slowly trying to exercise his own authority.
Referring to Mr. Erdogan, Mr. Kiniklioglu said, “he just wants someone who sits quietly in Ankara until the executive presidency is in place.”
Mr. Davutoglu said he would step aside after a special party congress to choose a new leader to be held on May 22.
Mr. Erdogan, who as president is supposed to be above party politics, is expected to help choose a successor to his former acolyte who will be subservient and lead his effort to rewrite the Constitution and establish a presidential system. That would likely require new elections for the A.K.P. to gain more seats in Parliament to approve any constitutional changes.
Mr. Davutoglu, a bookish and professorial counterweight to the brash and abrasive Mr. Erdogan, agreed in 2014 to be prime minister when Mr. Erdogan was elected president. Other top A.K.P. officials had demurred, fearing that they would have no authority under Mr. Erdogan.
Analysts say Mr. Erdogan, given his power and his vast popularity among Turkey’s pious masses, is unlikely to face much political cost in removing Mr. Davutoglu.