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ONS: short-term migration explains national insurance 'gap' ONS: short-term migration explains national insurance 'gap'
(about 1 hour later)
A claimed “missing million” of long-term EU immigrants to Britain has been proved a phantom army, according to a special analysis by the Office of National Statistics in the run-up to the EU referendum. A claimed “missing million” long-term EU immigrants to Britain have been proved to be a phantom army, according to a special analysis by the Office for National Statistics in the run-up to the EU referendum.
The ONS say short-term migration – EU citizens coming to Britain for less than a year and sometimes just a month – accounts for recent gaps between the official net migration figures for long-term immigrants to Britain and the number of national insurance numbers issued to EU nationals. The ONS says short-term migration – EU citizens coming to Britain for less than a year and sometimes for as little as a month – accounts for recent gaps between the official net migration figures for long-term immigrants to Britain and the number of national insurance numbers issued to EU nationals.
Critics have claimed that a 1.2m difference between the official migration figures and the number of national insurance numbers issued to EU nationals over the past five years have proved the existence of a phantom army of EU immigrants and that the government “has lied over the scale of recent EU migration”. Critics have claimed that a 1.2m difference between the official migration figures and the number of national insurance numbers issued to EU nationals over the past five years proves the existence of a phantom army of EU immigrants and shows the government “has lied over the scale of recent EU migration”.
But a special ONS note on the difference has concluded that the International Passenger Survey on which the official migration figures are based remains the best source of information for measuring long-term migration.But a special ONS note on the difference has concluded that the International Passenger Survey on which the official migration figures are based remains the best source of information for measuring long-term migration.
The ONS said national insurance registration data was not a good measure of long-term migration – those who come for periods of more than one year – but did provide a valuable source of information to highlight emerging changes in the patterns of migration. The ONS analysis says that differences between the two sets of official figures for those coming from Romania and Bulgaria appear to be particularly high in the two years since migration restrictions on those countries were lifted.
The official statisticians say fundamental differences in definitions between the different kinds of data mean that it is not possible to provide a simple accounting-type reconciliation of the differences between the two types of figures. “However, a significant proportion of those people issued with a national insurance number have since been active on our tax and benefit systems for less than 12 months, suggesting that the difference between these two figures can be largely attributed to short-term migration of 12 months or less,” it concludes.
Data from HMRC also published on Thursday shows that about a million EU nationals who had arrived over the past four years had “active” national insurance numbers, that is they paid tax or collected in-work benefits. This compares with 2.4m national insurance numbers issued to EU nationals over the last five years. The ONS said national insurance registration data was not a good measure of long-term migrants – those who come for periods of more than one year – but did provide a valuable source of information to highlight emerging changes in the patterns of migration.
More details soon … The official statisticians say fundamental differences in definitions between the different kinds of data mean it is not possible to provide a simple accounting-type reconciliation of the differences between the two types of figures.
Data from HMRC also published on Thursday shows that about a million EU nationals who had arrived over the past four years had “active” national insurance numbers, that is they paid tax, national insurance or collected in-work benefits including tax credits and child benefit. This compares with 2.4m national insurance numbers issued to EU nationals over the past five years.
Glen Watson, the deputy national statistician for population and public policy, said that while national insurance numbers were a valuable source to highlight emerging trends, “we are confident the International Passenger Survey remains the best available way of measuring long-term migration to the UK”.
“National insurance number registrations are not a good indicator of long-term migration. This research shows that many people who register for national insurance stay in the UK for less than a year, which is the minimum stay for a long-term migrant according to the internationally recognised definition,” he said.
Watson added that the number of short-term migrants coming to the UK to work or study had been rising recently, but that it was necessary to consider short-term migrants leaving as well to get the full picture.
The last set of short-term migration figures showed the number of short-term migrants in Britain at any one time was 101,000 in June 2013, while there were 155,000 British citizens living or working abroad for less than 12 months at the same time.