Austria and the Future of Europe

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/13/opinion/austria-and-the-future-of-europe.html

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Chancellor Werner Faymann’s sudden resignation on Monday could mean the collapse of Austria’s postwar political establishment, while increasing the likelihood of yet another European democracy falling prey to the xenophobic far right.

Mr. Faymann resigned after his own center-left Social Democratic Party abandoned him following a stinging victory by the right-wing Freedom Party candidate, Norbert Hofer, in a first round of presidential elections on April 24. The Social Democratic Party governs in coalition with the conservative Austrian People’s Party. The two parties have dominated Austrian politics for decades.

Mr. Hofer is now poised to win the second and final round of presidential voting on May 22. The office of the president in Austria is largely ceremonial. But Mr. Faymann’s resignation could trigger early parliamentary elections, now scheduled for 2018, that will determine who runs Austria’s next government. That would give the Freedom Party a real chance to come to power, which would be terrible for Austria. The Freedom Party has its roots in Austria’s ugly Nazi past. More recently, it has taken up far-right European nationalist, anti-immigrant and anti-Islam themes.

Last year, Austria was a major pathway for refugees heading from Turkey to Germany. But some 90,000 stayed in Austria. Fearful of a new wave of refugees, Austria is building — over strenuous protest from Italy — a fence on its Italian border.

Mr. Faymann’s waffling on the refugee issue is blamed for his demise: He first stood firmly with German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Europe’s moral duty to welcome refugees with open arms. Then, faced with growing anti-refugee sentiment, he moved to impose a cap on asylum seekers and close Austria’s borders, angering supporters on the left.

There are lessons here for other European leaders: Caving to xenophobia in an attempt to woo voters discontented over a range of issues, including economic insecurity (unemployment in Austria has increased), will only accelerate the disintegration of centrist parties.

Voters in Poland and Hungary have already elected right-wing governments, and Britain’s U.K. Independence Party and Germany’s right-wing Alternative for Germany party are gaining ground. In France, polls show far-right National Front candidate Marine Le Pen beating deeply unpopular Socialist President François Hollande in a first round of national elections next April.

The conservative Austrian People’s Party must avoid any temptation to join its lagging political fortunes to the rising star of the Freedom Party. History’s shadow of rabid nationalism and xenophobia — kept at bay since the end of World War II — is already lengthening across the Continent.