This article is from the source 'bbc' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.

You can find the current article at its original source at http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36284200

The article has changed 10 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.

Version 1 Version 2
IMF warns of substantial Brexit risk to UK economy IMF says Brexit 'bad to very, very bad'
(35 minutes later)
A vote for the UK to leave the European Union could have a "negative and substantial effect" on economic growth, the International Monetary Fund said. The International Monetary Fund chief has said a vote by the UK to leave the European Union would have "pretty bad, to very, very bad" consequences.
In its regular health check of the UK economy, the IMF said that a Brexit vote would result in a "protracted period of heightened uncertainty". Christine Lagarde said she had "not seen anything that's positive" about Brexit, in the IMF;s regular update on the UK economy.
That would cause volatility on financial markets and economic output to decline. It warned that a leave vote could have a "negative and substantial effect" on economic growth.
Brexit could also erode London's status as a global financial centre, it said. Ms Lagarde said the fund had a duty to assess the risks of Brexit.
The IMF said it expected growth to fall below 2% for the full year in 2016 before returning to an average of 2.25% over the medium term. It was not just a domestic issue but an international one as well, she told a briefing at the Treasury attended by the Chancellor, George Osborne.
However, the fund said that this "broadly positive" forecast was subject to notable risks, the biggest of which was the EU referendum, but also the low level of household savings, high levels of household debt, a wide current account deficit and concerns that productivity growth will not rise significantly. EU referendum issues guide: Explore the arguments
The UK's EU vote: All you need to know
"I don't think that in the last six months I have visited a country anywhere in the world where I have not been asked 'what will be the economic consequences of Brexit?" she said.
'Heightened uncertainty'
"So it is out of duty and loyalty to our mission that we have to study that in depth.
In its update, the IMF said that a Brexit vote would result in a "protracted period of heightened uncertainty".
That would cause volatility on financial markets and economic output to decline and could also erode London's status as a global financial centre, the IMF said.
The Fund said it expected growth to fall below 2% for the full year in 2016 before returning to an average of 2.25% over the medium term.
However, the IMF said that this "broadly positive" forecast was subject to notable risks, the biggest of which was the EU referendum, but also the low level of household savings, high levels of household debt, a wide current account deficit and concerns that productivity growth will not rise significantly.
Concerns about a possible Brexit may have affected UK markets in recent months, according to the IMF.Concerns about a possible Brexit may have affected UK markets in recent months, according to the IMF.
It pointed to a 40% decline in the number of commercial real estate transactions in the first three months of the year.It pointed to a 40% decline in the number of commercial real estate transactions in the first three months of the year.
Deciding whether to remain in the UK was a choice for voters to make, the IMF said, adding that "their decisions will reflect both economic and non-economic factors". Deciding whether to remain in the EU was a choice for voters to make, the IMF said, adding that "their decisions will reflect both economic and non-economic factors".