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Brazil endures more turmoil Brazil endures more turmoil
(about 20 hours later)
THIRTEEN YEARS of leftist rule in Brazil, which once seemed to promise both strong economic growth and greater equality, came to an ignominious end with President Dilma Rousseff’s suspension from office Thursday. While Ms. Rousseff faces an impeachment trial in the Senate, the country will be ruled by her vice president, who comes from a different political party and favors a center-right agenda. If, as now seems likely, Ms. Rousseff is permanently removed from office, much of the legacy of her Workers’ Party could be undone before the next scheduled presidential election in 2018.THIRTEEN YEARS of leftist rule in Brazil, which once seemed to promise both strong economic growth and greater equality, came to an ignominious end with President Dilma Rousseff’s suspension from office Thursday. While Ms. Rousseff faces an impeachment trial in the Senate, the country will be ruled by her vice president, who comes from a different political party and favors a center-right agenda. If, as now seems likely, Ms. Rousseff is permanently removed from office, much of the legacy of her Workers’ Party could be undone before the next scheduled presidential election in 2018.
Whether that is just is a fair matter for debate. Ms. Rousseff is not, as she contends, the victim of a coup: Brazil’s National Congress followed the constitution in impeaching her, and it seems likely she is guilty of the crime she is accused of — using improper loans from state banks to cover up overspending by her government. As we have said, it’s questionable whether that specific offense justifies her removal from office. But the Congress was responding to a larger record of economic mismanagement that has plunged Brazil into its worst recession since the 1930s. Whether that is just is a fair matter for debate. Ms. ­­Rousseff is not, as she contends, the victim of a coup: Brazil’s National Congress followed the constitution in impeaching her, and it seems likely she is guilty of the crime she is accused of — using improper loans from state banks to cover up overspending by her government. As we have said, it’s questionable whether that specific offense justifies her removal from office. But the Congress was responding to a larger record of economic mismanagement that has plunged Brazil into its worst recession since the 1930s.
Ms. Rousseff’s supporters point out that Brazilians never voted for the reversal of economic policy likely to be pursued by Michel Temer , the 75-year-old interim president. While a large majority of Brazilians favored the impeachment, only 2 percent in one recent poll supported Mr. Temer as the new president; in fact, most would like to see him impeached as well. Undaunted, the new leader swiftly appointed an all-male cabinet; while he promised not to cut subsidies to poor families, a signal policy of the former government, he has endorsed an agenda that includes such liberal measures as privatizations of state companies, freer trade and reform of pension and labor laws.Ms. Rousseff’s supporters point out that Brazilians never voted for the reversal of economic policy likely to be pursued by Michel Temer , the 75-year-old interim president. While a large majority of Brazilians favored the impeachment, only 2 percent in one recent poll supported Mr. Temer as the new president; in fact, most would like to see him impeached as well. Undaunted, the new leader swiftly appointed an all-male cabinet; while he promised not to cut subsidies to poor families, a signal policy of the former government, he has endorsed an agenda that includes such liberal measures as privatizations of state companies, freer trade and reform of pension and labor laws.
What should temper disapproval of this switch is that Mr. Temer’s favored remedies are precisely what is needed to pull the country out of its economic morass. Ms. Rousseff herself attempted to trim the country’s massive fiscal deficit before her political problems overtook her. The pension system allows workers to retire in their 50s and forces the government to spend a higher percentage of its gross domestic product on retirees than rich and aging Japan. The state oil company, Petrobras, is the source of the massive graft scandal that has tainted much of the political elite, including Ms. Rousseff’s predecessor, Luiz Ignácio Lula da Silva. What should temper disapproval of this switch is that Mr. Temer’s favored remedies are precisely what is needed to pull the country out of its economic morass. Ms. Rousseff herself attempted to trim the country’s massive fiscal deficit before her political problems overtook her. The pension system allows workers to retire in their 50s and forces the government to spend a higher percentage of its gross domestic product on retirees than rich and aging Japan. The state oil company, Petrobras, is the source of the massive graft scandal that has tainted much of the political elite, including Ms. Rousseff’s predecessor, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
Still, it’s questionable whether Mr. Temer, with his attenuated political legitimacy, will muster the support to pass the necessary reforms through Congress — especially as some would require constitutional amendments. Legislative gridlock could prolong the recession and lead to a further fraying of the political system. A fresh election could provide a way out, if Congress or the courts provide a mandate. Most likely, however, when the world turns its attention to this summer’s Olympics in Rio de Janeiro, the backdrop will be a Brazil still immersed in political turmoil. Still, it’s questionable whether Mr. Temer, with his attenuated political legitimacy, will muster the support to pass the necessary reforms through the Congress — especially as some would require constitutional amendments. Legislative gridlock could prolong the recession and lead to a further fraying of the political system. A fresh election could provide a way out, if the Congress or the courts provide a mandate. Most likely, however, when the world turns its attention to this summer’s Olympics in Rio de Janeiro, the backdrop will be a Brazil still immersed in political turmoil.
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